Rainfall forecasting in arid regions in response to climate change using ARIMA and remote sensing

References

• Abd‐Elhamid HF, Zeleňáková M, Soľáková T, Saleh OK, El‐Dakak AM. 2024. Monitoring flood and drought risks in arid and semi-arid regions using remote sensing data and standardized precipitation index: a case study of Syria. J Flood Risk Manag. 17(1):e12961. doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12961.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Adam JC, Lettenmaier DP. 2003. Adjustment of global gridded precipitation for systematic bias. J Geophys Res. 108(D9):4257. doi: 10.1029/2002JD002499.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Al Balasmeh O, Babbar R, Karmaker T. 2019. Trend analysis and ARIMA modeling for forecasting precipitation pattern in Wadi Shueib catchment area in Jordan. Arab J Geosci. 12(2):1–19. doi: 10.1007/s12517-018-4205-z.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alahacoon N, Edirisinghe M, Simwanda M, Perera E, Nyirenda VR, Ranagalage M. 2021. Rainfall variability and trends over the African continent using TAMSAT Data (1983–2020): towards climate change resilience and adaptation. Remote Sens. 14(1):96. doi: 10.3390/rs14010096.
   Google Scholar
• Alahacoon N, Edirisinghe M. 2021. Spatial variability of rainfall trends in Sri Lanka from 1989 to 2019 as an indication of climate change. IJGI. 10(2):84. doi: 10.3390/ijgi10020084.
   Google Scholar
• Alkolibi FM. 2002. Possible effects of global warming on agriculture and water resources in Saudi Arabia: impacts and responses. Climate Change. 54(1/2):225–245. doi: 10.1023/A:1015777403153.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Almazroui M. 2011. Calibration of TRMM rainfall climatology over Saudi Arabia during 1998-2009. Atmos Res. 99:400–414.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Almazroui M, Islam N, Jones P, Athar H, Rahman MA. 2012. Recent climate change in the Arabian Peninsula: seasonal rainfall and temperature climatology of Saudi Arabia for 1979–2009. Atmos Res. 111:29–45. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.02.013.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Al-Qinna MI, Hammouri NA, Obeidat M, Ahmad F. 2011. Drought analysis in Jordan under current and future climates. Clim Change. 106(3):421–440. doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9954-y.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Altõnbilek D. 2004. Development and management of the Euphrates-Tigris basin. Int J Water Resour Dev. 20(1):15–33.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bari SH, Rahman MT, Hussain MM, Ray S. 2015. Forecasting monthly precipitation in Sylhet City using ARIMA model. Civil Environ Res. 7(1):69–78.
   Google Scholar
• Black E. 2009. The impact of climate change on daily precipitation statistics in Jordan and Israel. Atmos Sci Lett. 10(3):192–200. doi: 10.1002/asl.233.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Braemer F, Genequand D, Dumond M, C, Blanc PM, Dentzer JM, Gazagne D, Wech P. 2009. Long-term management of water in the Central Levant: the Hawran case (Syria). World Archaeol. 41(1):36–57. doi: 10.1080/00438240802666424.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dehaghani A, Gohari A, Zareian M, Haghighi A. 2023. A comprehensive evaluation of the satellite precipitation products across Iran. J Hydrol. 46(2023):101360.
   Google Scholar
• El-Dakak AM, O. K S, Elnikhely EA. 2021. Drought forecast using ARIMA model for the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and precipitation data. IJCIET. 12(1):63–79. doi: 10.34218/IJCIET.12.1.2021.005.
   Google Scholar
• Endo N, Matsumoto J, Lwin T. 2009. Trends in precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia. SOLA. 5:168–171. doi: 10.2151/sola.2009-043.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gowri L, Manjula KR, Sasireka K, Deepa D. 2022. Assessment of statistical models for rainfall forecasting using machine learning technique. J Soft Comput Civil Eng. 6(2):51–67.
   Google Scholar
• Haylock MR, Peterson TC, Alves LM, Ambrizzi T, Anunciação YMT, Baez J, Barros VR, Berlato MA, Bidegain M, Coronel G, et al. 2006. Trends in total and extreme South American rainfall in 1960-2000 and links with sea surface temperature. J. Clim. 19(8):1490–1512. doi: 10.1175/JCLI3695.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hinge G, Hamouda M, Long D, Mohamed M. 2022. Hydrologic utility of satellite precipitation products in flood prediction: a meta-data analysis and lessons learnt. J Hydrol. 612(2022):128103. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128103.
   Google Scholar
• Iksha PKS. 2019. Forecast of drought in Bundelkhand region using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and ARIMA model [M.Sc. thesis]. Sam Higginbottom University of Agriculture, Technology and Sciences.
   Google Scholar
• IPCC. 2007. Adaptation and vulnerability. Fourth assessment report: working group II report. Cambridg: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• IPCC. 2013. Summary for policymakers. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V and Midgley P.M, editors. Climate change 2013: the Physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• IPCC. 2014. AR5 climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/.
   Google Scholar
• IPCC. 2021. Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/.
   Google Scholar
• Islam F, Imteaz MA. 2020. Use of teleconnections to predict Western Australian seasonal rainfall using ARIMAX model. Hydrology. 7(3):52. doi: 10.3390/hydrology7030052.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mourad KA, Berndtsson R. 2012. Water status in the Syrian Water Basins. OJMH. 02(01):15–20. doi: 10.4236/ojmh.2012.21003.
   Google Scholar
• Kattan Z. 1997. Environmental isotope study of the major karst springs in Damascus limestone aquifer systems: case of the Figeh and Barada springs. J Hydrol. 193(1–4):161–182. doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(96)03137-X.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kelly J. 2019. The top 10 causes of global warming. sciencing.com. https://sciencing.com/the-top-10-causes-of-global-warming-12512484.html\
   Google Scholar
• Khan MS, Islam M, Adhikary S, Hossain MM, Afroja S. 2018. Analysis and predictions of seasonal affected weather variables of Bangladesh: SARIMA models vs. Traditional models. IJBM. 13(12):70–80. doi: 10.5539/ijbm.v13n12p70.
   Google Scholar
• Lelieveld J, Hadjinicolaou P, Kostopoulou E, Chenoweth J, El Maayar M, Giannakopoulos C, Hannides C, Lange M, Tanarhte M, Tyrlis E, et al. 2012. Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Clim Change. 114(3-4):667–687. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0418-4.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mossad A, Alazba AA. 2015. Drought forecasting using stochastic models in a hyper-arid climate. Water. 6(4):410–430. doi: 10.3390/atmos6040410.
   Google Scholar
• Nations Online Countries of the World. 2021. https://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/press_freedom.htm.
   Google Scholar
• Sabattini JA, Rafael AS. 2021. Rainfall trends in humid temperate climate in south America: possible effects in ecosystems of Espinal ecoregion. In: Stuart AH, editor. The nature, causes, effects and mitigation of climate change on the environment. London, UK: Intech Open.
   Google Scholar
• Salameh A, Fallah R. 2018. Changes in air temperature and precipitation over the Syrian coastal region. Cuadernos Geográficos. 57(3):140–151.
   Google Scholar
• Shaaban A. 2009. Indicators and aspects of hydrological drought in Lebanon. Water Resour Manage. 23:1875–1891.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Simonet S. 2011. Adapting to climate change in the water sector in the Mediterranean: situation and prospects. Les Cahiers du Plan Bleu 10. https://planbleu.org/en/publications/adapting-to-climate-change-in-the-water-sector-in-the-mediterranean-situation-and-prospects/.
   Google Scholar
• Tadesse KB, Dink MO. 2022. The SARIMA model-based monthly rainfall forecasting for the Turksvygbult station at the Magoebaskloof Dam in South Africa. J Water Land Dev. 53:100–107. doi: 10.24425/jwld.2022.140785.
   Google Scholar
• Terink W, Immerzeel W, Droogers P. 2013. Climate change projections of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration for the Middle East and Northern Africa until 2050. Intl J Climatol. 33(14):3055–3072. doi: 10.1002/joc.3650.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang HR, Wang C, Lin X, Kang J. 2014. An improved ARIMA model for precipitation simulations. Nonlin Processes Geophys. 21(6):1159–1168. doi: 10.5194/npg-21-1159-2014.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang S, Feng J, Liu G. 2013. Application of seasonal time series model in the precipitation forecast. Math Comput Modell. 58(3-4):677–683. doi: 10.1016/j.mcm.2011.10.034.
   Google Scholar
• Whitehead PG, Wilby RL, Battarbee RW, Kernan M, Wade AJ. 2009. A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality. Hydrol Sci J. 54(1):101–123., doi: 10.1623/hysj.54.1.101.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Xoplaki E, González-Rouco JF, Luterbacher J, Wanner H. 2004. Wet season mediterranean precipitation variability: influence of large-scale dynamics and trends. Clim Dyn. 23(1):63–78., doi: 10.1007/s00382-004-0422-0.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yeh H, Hsu H. 2019. Stochastic model for drought forecasting in the southern Taiwan Basin. Water. 11(10):2041. doi: 10.3390/w11102041.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zakaria S, Al-Ansari N, Knutsson S, Al-Badrany T. 2012. ARIMA Models for weekly rainfall in the semi-arid Sinjar District at Iraq. J Earth Sci Geotech Eng. 3:25–55.
   Google Scholar
• Zeleňáková M, Abd-Elhamid HF, Krajníková K, Smetanková J, Purcz P, Alkhalaf I., 2022. Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall trends in response to climate change, A case study: Syria. Water. 14(10):1670. doi: 10.3390/w14101670.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar