Ice cover and thermal regime in a dimictic seepage lake under climate change

References

• Agbeti MD, Smol JP. 1995. Winter limnology: a comparison of physical, chemical and biological characteristics in two temperate lakes during ice cover. Hydrobiologia. 304:221–234. doi: 10.1007/BF02329316
   Google Scholar
• Anderson MP, Cheng X. 1993. Long- and short-term transience in a groundwater/lake system in Wisconsin, USA. J Hydrol. 145:1–18. doi: 10.1016/0022-1694(93)90217-W
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ashton GD. 1986. River and lake ice engineering. Littleton (CO): Water Resources Publications.
   Google Scholar
• Assel RA, Robertson DM. 1995. Changes in winter air temperatures near Lake Michigan, 1851–1993, as determined from regional lake-ice records. Limnol Oceanogr. 40:165–176. doi: 10.4319/lo.1995.40.1.0165
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bengtsson L. 1986. Spatial variability of lake ice covers. Geogr Ann. 68A:113–121. doi: 10.1080/04353676.1986.11880164
   Google Scholar
• Bengtsson L, Malm J, Terzhevik A, Petrov M, Boyarinov P, Glinsky A, Palshin N. 1996. Field investigation of winter thermo- and hydrodynamics in a small Karelian lake. Limnol Oceanogr. 41:1502–1513. doi: 10.4319/lo.1996.41.7.1502
   Google Scholar
• Birge EA, Juday C, March HW. 1927. The temperature of the bottom deposits of Lake Mendota; a chapter in the heat exchanges of the lake. T Wisc Acad Sci Arts Lett. 23:187–231.
   Google Scholar
• Bueche T, Hamilton DP, Vetter M. 2017. Using the General Lake Model (GLM) to simulate water temperatures and ice cover of a medium-sized lake: a case study of Lake Ammersee, Germany. Environ Earth Sci. 76:461.
   Google Scholar
• Carpenter SR, Fisher SG, Grimm NB, Kitchell JF. 1992. Global change and freshwater ecosystems. Annu Rev Ecol Syst. 23:119–139. doi: 10.1146/annurev.es.23.110192.001003
   Google Scholar
• De Stasio BT, Hill DK, Kleinhans JM, Nibbelink NP, Magnuson JJ. 1996. Potential effects of global climate change on small north-temperate lakes: physics, fish, and plankton. Limnol Oceanogr. 41:1136–1149. doi: 10.4319/lo.1996.41.5.1136
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ellis CR, Stefan HG, Gu R. 1991. Water temperature dynamics and heat transfer beneath the ice cover of a lake. Limnol Oceanogr. 36:324–335. doi: 10.4319/lo.1991.36.2.0324
   Google Scholar
• Fang X, Ellis CR, Stefan HG. 1996. Simulation and observation of ice formation (freeze-over) in a lake. Cold Reg Sci Technol. 24:129–145. doi: 10.1016/0165-232X(95)00022-4
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fang X, Stefan HG. 1996a. Long-term lake water temperature and ice cover simulations/measurements. Cold Reg Sci Technol. 24:289–304. doi: 10.1016/0165-232X(95)00019-8
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fang X, Stefan HG. 1996b. Dynamics of heat exchange between sediment and water in a lake. Water Resour Res. 32:1719–1727. doi: 10.1029/96WR00274
   Google Scholar
• Fang X, Stefan HG. 2009. Simulations of climate effects on water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and ice and snow covers in lakes of the contiguous U.S. under past and future climate scenarios. Limnol Oceanogr. 54:2359–2370. doi: 10.4319/lo.2009.54.6_part_2.2359
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gill AE. 1982. Atmosphere–ocean dynamics. Cambridge (MA): Academic Press.
   Google Scholar
• Gu R, Stefan HG. 1990. Year-round temperature simulation of cold climate lakes. Cold Reg Sci Technol. 18:147–160. doi: 10.1016/0165-232X(90)90004-G
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hamilton DP, Schladow SG. 1997. Prediction of water quality in lakes and reservoirs: Part I - Model calibration, sensitivity analysis and application. Ecol Model. 96:91–110. doi: 10.1016/S0304-3800(96)00062-2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Harvey LDD. 1990. Testing alternative parameterizations of lateral melting and upward basal heat flux in a thermodynamic sea ice model. J Geophys Res-Oceans. 95:7359–7365. doi: 10.1029/JC095iC05p07359
   Google Scholar
• Hill JM, Kucera A. 1983. Freezing a saturated liquid inside a sphere. Int J Heat Mass Trans. 26:1631–1637. doi: 10.1016/S0017-9310(83)80083-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hostetler SW, Bartlein PJ. 1990. Simulation of lake evaporation with application to modeling lake level variations of Harney-Malheur Lake, Oregon. Water Resour Res. 26:2603–2612.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hutchinson GE. 1975. A treatise on limnology, Vol. 1: Geography and physics of lakes. New York (NY): John Wiley & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• Imberger J, Patterson JC. 1981. Dynamic reservoir simulation model - DYRESM: 5. In: Fischer HB, editor. Transport models for inland and coastal waters. Cambridge (MA): Academic Press; p. 310–361.
   Google Scholar
• Imberger J, Patterson JC. 1990. Physical limnology. Adv Appl Mech. 27:303–475. doi: 10.1016/S0065-2156(08)70199-6
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• [IPCC] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2013. Summary for policymakers. In: Stocker T, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM, editors. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York (NY): Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Jellison R, Romero J, Melack JM. 1998. The onset of meromixis during restoration of Mono Lake, California: unintended consequences of reducing water diversions. Limnol Oceanogr. 43:706–711. doi: 10.4319/lo.1998.43.4.0706
   Google Scholar
• Jensen OP, Benson BJ, Magnuson JJ, Card VM, Futter MN, Soranno PA, Stewart KM. 2007. Spatial analysis of ice phenology trends across the Laurentian Great Lakes region during a recent warming period. Limnol Oceanogr. 52:2013–2026. doi: 10.4319/lo.2007.52.5.2013
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kenoyer GJ, Anderson MP. 1989. Groundwater’s dynamic role in regulating acidity and chemistry in a precipitation-dominated lake. J Hydrol. 109:287–306. doi: 10.1016/0022-1694(89)90020-6
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kirillin G, Leppäranta M, Terzhevik A, Granin N, Bernhardt J, Engelhardt C, Efremova T, Golosov S, Palshin N, Sherstyankin P, et al. 2012. Physics of seasonally ice-covered lakes: a review. Aquat Sci. 74:659–682. doi: 10.1007/s00027-012-0279-y
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kucharik CJ, Serbin SP, Vavrus S, Hopkins EJ, Motew MM. 2010. Patterns of climate change across Wisconsin from 1950 to 2006. Phys Geogr. 31:1–28. doi: 10.2747/0272-3646.31.1.1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lathrop RC, Carpenter SR, Robertson DM. 1999. Summer water clarity responses to phosphorus, Daphnia grazing, and internal mixing in Lake Mendota. Limnol Oceanogr. 44:137–146. doi: 10.4319/lo.1999.44.1.0137
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Likens GE, Ragotzkie RA. 1965. Vertical water motions in a small ice-covered lake. J Geophys Res. 70:2333–2344. doi: 10.1029/JZ070i010p02333
   Google Scholar
• Liston G, Hall DK. 1995. An energy balance of lake-ice evolution. J Glaciol. 41:373–382. doi: 10.1017/S0022143000016245
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Magee M, Wu CH, Robertson DM, Lathrop RC, Hamilton DP. 2016. Trends and abrupt changes in 104-years of ice cover and water temperature in a dimictic lake in response to air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity drivers. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc. 20:1681–1702. doi: 10.5194/hess-20-1681-2016
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Magee M, Wu CH. 2017a. Long-term trends and variability of ice cover in three morphometrically different lakes in response to climate change. Hydrol Proc. 31:308–323. doi: 10.1002/hyp.10996
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Magee M, Wu CH. 2017b. Response of water temperatures and stratification to changing climate in three lakes with different morphometry. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc. 21:6253–6274. doi: 10.5194/hess-21-6253-2017
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Magnuson JJ, Kratz TK, Benson BJ. 2006. Long-term dynamics of lakes in the landscape: long-term ecological research on north temperate lakes. Berlin (Germany) and New York (NY): Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Magnuson JJ, Webster KE, Assel RA, Bowser CJ, Dillon PJ, Eaton JG, Evans HE, Fee EJ, Hall RI, Mortsch LR, et al. 1997. Potential effects of climate changes on aquatic systems: Laurentian Great Lakes and Precambrian Shield Region. Hydrol Proc. 11:825–871. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(19970630)11:8<825::AID-HYP509>3.0.CO;2-G
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Malm J, Terzhevik A, Bengtsson L, Boyarinov P, Glinsky A, Palshin N, Petrov M. 1997. Temperature and salt content regimes in three shallow ice-covered lakes. 1. Temperature, salt content, and density structure. Nord Hydrol. 28:99–128. doi: 10.2166/nh.1997.0007
   Google Scholar
• Maykut GA. 1982. Large-scale heat exchange and ice production in the central arctic. J Geophys Res. 87:7971–7984. doi: 10.1029/JC087iC10p07971
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Maykut GA, Untersteiner N. 1971. Some results from a time-dependent thermodynamic model of sea ice. J Geophys Res. 76:1550–1575. doi: 10.1029/JC076i006p01550
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McKay G. 1968. Problems of measuring and evaluating snow cover. In: Proceedings Workshop Seminar of Snow Hydrology, Ottawa, Canada; p. 49–63.
   Google Scholar
• Melack JM, Dozier J, Goldman CR, Greenland D, Milner AM, Naiman RJ. 1997. Effects of climate change on inland waters of the Pacific coastal mountains and Western Great Basin of North America. Hydrol Proc. 11:971–992. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(19970630)11:8<971::AID-HYP514>3.0.CO;2-Y
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Oliver R, Granf G. 2000. Freshwater blooms. In: Whitton B, Potts M, editors. The ecology of Cyanobacteria. Amsterdam (Netherlands): Kluwer; p. 149–194.
   Google Scholar
• Oveisy A, Boegman L. 2014. One-dimensional simulation of lake and ice dynamics during winter. J Limnol. 73:441–453. doi: 10.4081/jlimnol.2014.903
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Paerl HW, Huisman J. 2008. Blooms like it hot. Science. 320:57–58. doi: 10.1126/science.1155398
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Patterson JC, Hamblin PF. 1988. Thermal simulation of a lake with winter ice cover. Limnol Oceanogr. 33:323–338. doi: 10.4319/lo.1988.33.3.0323
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peeters F, Livingstone DM, Goudsmit G-H, Kipfer R, Forster R. 2002. Modeling 50 years of historical temperature profiles in a large central European lake. Limnol Oceanogr. 47:186–197. doi: 10.4319/lo.2002.47.1.0186
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reynolds CS. 1997. Vegetation processes in the pelagic: a model for ecosystem theory. Oldendorf (Germany): Ecology Institute.
   Google Scholar
• Robertson DM, Ragotzkie RA. 1990. Changes in the thermal structure of moderate to large-sized lakes in response to changes in air temperature. Aquat Sci. 52:360–380. doi: 10.1007/BF00879763
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Robertson DM, Ragotzkie RA, Magnuson JJ. 1992. Lake ice records used to detect historical and future climatic changes. Clim Change. 21:407–427. doi: 10.1007/BF00141379
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rogers CK, Lawrence GA, Hamblin PF. 1995. Observations and numerical simulation of a shallow ice-covered midlatitude lake. Limnol Oceanogr. 40:374–385. doi: 10.4319/lo.1995.40.2.0374
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Saloranta TM, Andersen T. 2007. MyLake—a multi-year lake simulation model code suitable for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis simulations. Ecol Model. 207:45–60. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.03.018
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Scheller RM, Mladenoff DJ. 2005. A spatially interactive simulation of climate change, harvesting, wind, and tree species migration and projected changes to forest composition and biomass in northern Wisconsin, USA. Glob Change Biol. 11:307–321. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00906.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schindler DW, Bayley SE, Curtis PJ, Parker BR, Stainton MP, Kelly CA. 1992. Natural and man-caused factors affecting the abundance and cycling of dissolved organic substances in precambrian shield lakes. Hydrobiologia. 229:1–21. doi: 10.1007/BF00006987
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Scott J. 1964. A comparison of the heat balance of lakes in winter [dissertation]. Madison (WI): University of Wisconsin-Madison.
   Google Scholar
• Serbin SP, Kucharik CJ. 2009. Spatiotemporal mapping of temperature and precipitation for the development of a multidecadal climatic dataset for Wisconsin. J Appl Meteorol Clim. 48:742–757. doi: 10.1175/2008JAMC1986.1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stefan HG, Fang X, Hondzo M. 1998. Simulated climate change effects on year-round water temperatures in temperate zone lakes. Climatic Change. 40:547–576. doi: 10.1023/A:1005371600527
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stefan HG, Hondzo M, Fang X, Eaton JG, McCormick JH. 1996. Simulated long term temperature and dissolved oxygen characteristics of lakes in the north-central United States and associated fish habitat limits. Limnol Oceanogr. 41:1124–1135. doi: 10.4319/lo.1996.41.5.1124
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tanentzap AJ, Norman DY, Keller B, Girard R, Heneberry J, Gunn JM, Hamilton DP, Taylor PA. 2008. Cooling lakes while the world warms: effects of forest regrowth and increased dissolved organic matter on the thermal regime of a temperate, urban lake. Limnol Oceanogr. 53:404–410. doi: 10.4319/lo.2008.53.1.0404
   Google Scholar
• Tsay T, Ruggaber G, Effler S, Driscoll C. 1992. Thermal stratification modeling of lakes with sediment heat flux. J Hydraul Eng. 118:407–419. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1992)118:3(407)
   Google Scholar
• Vavrus SJ, Wynne RH, Foley JA. 1996. Measuring the sensitivity of southern Wisconsin lake ice to climate variations and lake depth using a numerical model. Limnol Oceanogr. 41:822–831. doi: 10.4319/lo.1996.41.5.0822
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wallace BB, Hamilton DP. 1999. The effect of variations in irradiance on buoyancy regulation in Microcystis aeruginosa. Limnol Oceanogr. 44:273–281. doi: 10.4319/lo.1999.44.2.0273
   Google Scholar
• Webster KE, Bowser CJ, Anderson MP, Lenters JD. 2006. Understanding the lake-groundwater system: just follow the water. In: Magnuson JJ, Kratz TK, Benson B, editors. Long-term dynamics of lakes in the landscape: long-term ecological research on northern temperate lakes. Oxford (UK): Oxford University Press; p. 19–48.
   Google Scholar
• Weyhenmeyer GA, Blenckner T, Pettersson K. 1999. Changes of the plankton spring outburst related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Limnol Oceanogr. 44:1788–1792. doi: 10.4319/lo.1999.44.7.1788
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yang Y, Leppäranta M, Cheng B, Li Z. 2012. Numerical modelling of snow and ice thicknesses in Lake Vanajavesi, Finland. Tellus A. 64:1.
   Google Scholar
• Zdorovennova GE. 2009. Spatial and temporal variations of the water–sediment thermal structure in shallow ice-covered Lake Vendyurskoe (Northwestern Russia). Aquat Ecol. 43:629–639. doi: 10.1007/s10452-009-9277-0
   Google Scholar