572
Views
4
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Article

Simulation modelling of patient flow and capacity planning for regional long-term care needs: a case study

ORCID Icon, , ORCID Icon &
Pages 1-16 | Received 27 Oct 2016, Accepted 08 Nov 2017, Published online: 28 Nov 2017

References

  • AARP Public Policy Institute. (2015). Long-term services & supports state scorecard. Retrieved June 2015 from, http://www.longtermscorecard.org
  • Administration on Aging, Department of Health and Human Services. (2014). Retrieved November 2014, from http://www.aoa.gov/AoARoot/Aging_Statistics/index.aspx.
  • Ansah, J. P., Matchar, D. B., & Love, S. R. (2013). Simulating the impact of long-term care policy on family eldercare hours. Health Services Research, 48, 773–791.10.1111/1475-6773.12030
  • Bodenheimer, T., Wagner, E. H., & Grumbach, K. (2002). Improving primary care for patients with chronic illness: The chronic care model, part 2. The Journal of the American Medical Association, 288(15), 1909–1914.10.1001/jama.288.15.1909
  • Brailsford, S. C., & Hilton, N. A. (2001) A comparison of discrete event simulation and system dynamics for modelling health care systems. Proceedings of Operational Research Applied to Health Services (ORAHS), Glasgow Caledonian University, pp. 18–39.
  • Bureau of the Census. (2014). Retrieved February 2014, from, http://www.census.gov
  • Cardoso, T., Oliveira, M. D., Barbosa-Póvoa, A., & Nickel, S. (2012). Modeling the demand for long-term care services under uncertain information. Health Care Management Science, 15(4), 385–412.10.1007/s10729-012-9204-0
  • Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services. (2014). Retrieved September 2014, from http://www.medicaid.gov/AffordableCareAct/Provisions
  • Connelly, L. G., & Bair, A. E. (2004). Discrete event simulation of emergency department activity: a platform for system-level operations research. Academic Emergency Medicine, 11, 1177–1185.10.1111/acem.2004.11.issue-11
  • Cote, M., & Stein, W. E. (2000). An Erlang-based stochastic model for patient flow. Omega, 28, 347–359.10.1016/S0305-0483(99)00045-6
  • Davies, R., & Davies, H. T. O. (1994). Modeling patient flows and resource provision in health systems. Omega, 22(2), 123–131.10.1016/0305-0483(94)90073-6
  • Fetter, R. B., & Thompson, J. D. (1968). A decision model for the design and operation of a progressive patient care hospital. Medical Care, 7, 450–462.
  • Forder, J., & Fernandez, J.-L. (2011) Length of stay in care homes (PSSRU Discussion Paper 2769). Canterbury: PSSRU.
  • Hare, W. L., Alimadad, A., Dodd, H., Ferguson, R., & Rutherford, A. (2009). A deterministic model of home and community care client counts in British Columbia. Health Care Management Science, 12(1), 80–98.10.1007/s10729-008-9082-7
  • Harper, P. R., & Shahani, A. K. (2002). Modelling for the planning and management of bed capacities in hospitals. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 53(1), 11–18.10.1057/palgrave/jors/2601278
  • Harrison, G. W., & Escobar, G. J. (2010). Length of stay and imminent discharge probability distributions from multistage models: Variation by diagnosis, severity of illness, and hospital. Health Care Management Science, 13(3), 268–279.10.1007/s10729-010-9128-5
  • Houser, A., Fox-Grage, W., & Ujvari, K. (2012). Across the states: Profiles of long-term services and supports. Washington, DC: AARP.
  • Jun, J. B., Jacobson, S. H., & Swisher, J. R. (1999). Application of discrete-event simulation in health care clinics: A survey. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 50(2), 109–123.10.1057/palgrave.jors.2600669
  • Kao, E. P. C., & Tung, G. G. (1981). Bed allocation in a public health care delivery system. Management Science, 27(5), 507–520.10.1287/mnsc.27.5.507
  • Kleijnen, J. P. C., & Wan, J. (2007). Optimization of simulated systems: OptQuest and alternatives. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory, 15, 354–362.10.1016/j.simpat.2006.11.001
  • Kucukyazici, B., Verter, V., & Mayo, N. (2011). An analytical framework for designing community-based care for chronic diseases. Production and Operations Management, 20(3), 474–488.10.1111/poms.2011.20.issue-3
  • Law, A. M. (2013). Simulation modeling and analysis. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
  • Lewis, P. A. W., & Shedler, G. S. (1979). Simulation of nonhomogeneous poisson processes by thinning. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, 26(3), 403–413.10.1002/(ISSN)1931-9193
  • Lin, F., Kong, N., & Lawley, M. (2012). Capacity planning for publicly funded community based long-term care services. In M. P. Johnson (Ed.), Community-based operations research (pp. 297–315). New York, NY: Springer.10.1007/978-1-4614-0806-2
  • Marazzi, A., Paccaud, F., Ruffieux, C., & Beguin, C. (1998). Fitting the distributions of length of stay by parametric models. Medical Care, 36(6), 915–927.10.1097/00005650-199806000-00014
  • Patrick, J. (2011). Long term care: The real cause of hospital congestion. Production and Operations Management, 20(3), 347–358.10.1111/poms.2011.20.issue-3
  • Patrick, J., Nelson, K., & Lane, D. (2015). A simulation model for capacity planning in community care. Journal of Simulation, 9(2), 111–120.10.1057/jos.2014.23
  • Ridge, J. C., Jones, S. K., Nielsen, M. S., & Shahani, A. K. (1998). Capacity planning for intensive care units. European Journal of Operational Research, 105, 346–355.10.1016/S0377-2217(97)00240-3
  • Ross, S. M. (2006). Simulation. London: Academic Press.
  • Tsai, A. C., Morton, S. C., Mangione, C. M., & Keeler, E. B. (2005). A meta-analysis of interventions to improve care for chronic illnesses. The American Journal of Managed Care, 11(8), 478–488.
  • Vassilacopoulos, G. (1985). A simulation model for bed allocation to hospital inpatient departments. Simulation, 45, 233–241.10.1177/003754978504500502
  • Waldo, D., & Lazeby, H. (1984). Demographic characteristics and healthcare use and expenditures by the aged in the United States: 1977–1984. Health Care Financing Review, 6, 1–29.
  • Xie, H., Chaussalet, T. J., & Millard, P. H. (2005). A continuous time Markov model for the length of stay of elderly people in institutional long-term care. Journals of the Royal Statistical Society A, 168(1), 51–61.10.1111/rssa.2005.168.issue-1
  • Zhang, Y., Puterman, M. L., Nelson, M., & Atkins, D. (2012). A Simulation optimization approach to long-term care capacity planning. Operations Research, 60, 249–261.10.1287/opre.1110.1026

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.