445
Views
3
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Climate change, in-situ adaptation, and migration decisions of smallholder farmers in central Ethiopia

ORCID Icon, , &
Pages 737-761 | Received 17 Jul 2020, Accepted 19 Sep 2020, Published online: 27 Oct 2020

References

  • Abu, M., Codjoe, S. N. A., & Sward, J. (2014). Climate change and internal migration intentions in the forest-savannah transition zone of Ghana. Population and Environment, 35(4), 341–364. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-013-0191-y
  • Adams, H. (2016). Why populations persist: Mobility, place attachment and climate change. Population and Environment, 37(4), 429–448. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-015-0246-3
  • Afifi, T., Liwenga, E., & Kwezi, L. (2014). Rainfall-induced crop failure, food insecurity and out-migration in Same-Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Climate and Development, 6(1), 53–60. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2013.826128
  • Alexander, L., & Herold, N. (2016). ClimPACT2: Indices and software. A document prepared on behalf of the Commission for Climatology (CCI) Expert Team on Sector-Specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI), World Meteorological Organization.https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/49274/1/ClimPACTv2_manual.pdf (accessed on 09/06/2019)
  • Axinn, W. G., Pearce, L. D., & Ghimire, D. (1999). Innovations in life history calendar applications. Social Science Research, 28(3), 243–264. https://doi.org/10.1006/ssre.1998.0641
  • Bangwayo‐Skeete, P. F., Bezabih, M., & Zikhali, P. (2012). Crop biodiversity, productivity and production risk: Panel data micro‐evidence from Ethiopia. Natural Resources Forum, 36(4), 263–273. https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-8947.12000
  • Barber, J. S., Murphy, S. A., Axinn, W. G., & Maples, J. (2000). Discrete-time multilevel hazard analysis. Sociological Methodology, 30(1), 201–235. https://doi.org/10.1111/0081-1750.00079
  • Bardsley, D. K., & Hugo, G. J. (2010). Migration and climate change: Examining thresholds of change to guide effective adaptation decision-making. Population and Environment, 32(2–3), 238–262. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-010-0126-9
  • Bettini, G., Nash, S. L., & Gioli, G. (2017). One step forward, two steps back? The fading contours of (in)justice in competing discourses on climate migration. The Geographical Journal, 183(4), 348–358. https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12192
  • Bezabih, M., & Sarr, M. (2012). Risk preferences and environmental uncertainty: Implications for crop diversification decisions in Ethiopia. Environmental and Resource Economics, 53(4), 483–505. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-012-9573-3
  • Bezu, S., & Barrett, C. (2012). Employment dynamics in the rural nonfarm sector in Ethiopia: Do the poor have time on their side? Journal of Development Studies, 48(9), 1223–1240. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2012.671476
  • Bezu, S., Barrett, C. B., & Holden, S. T. (2012). Does the nonfarm economy offer pathways for upward mobility? Evidence from a panel data study in Ethiopia. World Development, 40(8), 1634–1646. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.04.019
  • Black, R., Adger, W. N., Arnell, N. W., Dercon, S., Geddes, A., & Thomas, D. S. G. (2011). The effect of environmental change on human migration. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 21(S1), S3–S11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.001
  • Bohra-Mishra, P., Oppenheimer, M., Cai, R., Feng, S., & Licker, R. (2017). Climate variability and migration in the Philippines. Population and Environment, 38(3), 286–308. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-016-0263-x
  • Bohra-Mishra, P., Oppenheimer, M., & Hsiang, S. M. (2014). Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(27), 9780–9785. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1317166111
  • Borgomeo, E., Vadheim, B., Woldeyes, F. B., Alamirew, T., Tamru, S., Charles, K. J., Kebede, S., & Walker, O. (2018). The distributional and multi-sectoral impacts of rainfall shocks: Evidence from computable general equilibrium modelling for the Awash Basin, Ethiopia. Ecological Economics, 146, 621–632. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.11.038
  • Braun, V., & Clarke, V. (2006). Using thematic analysis in psychology. Qualitative Research in Psychology, 3(2), 77–101. https://doi.org/10.1191/1478088706qp063oa
  • Carling, J. R. (2002). Migration in the age of involuntary immobility: Theoretical reflections and Cape Verdean experiences. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 28(1), 5–42. https://doi.org/10.1080/13691830120103912
  • Castelli, F. (2018). Drivers of migration: Why do people move? Journal of Travel Medicine, 25(1), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/tay040
  • Cohn, A. S., Newton, P., Gil, J. D. B., Kuhl, L., Samberg, L., Ricciardi, V., Manly, J. R., & Northrop, S. (2017). Smallholder agriculture and climate change. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 42(1), 347–375. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-060946
  • Creswell, J. W., & Plano Clark, V. L. (2018). Designing and conducting mixed methods research (3rd ed.). SAGE publications, Inc.
  • De Haas, H. (2010). Migration and development: A theoretical perspective. International Migration Review, 44(1), 227–264. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-7379.2009.00804.x
  • De Sherbinin, A., VanWey, L. K., McSweeney, K., Aggarwal, R., Barbieri, A., Henry, S., Hunter, L. M., Twine, W., & Walker, R. (2008). Rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Global Environmental Change, 18(1), 38–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.05.005
  • Demeke, A. B., & Zeller, M. (2012). Weather risk and household participation in off-farm activities in Rural Ethiopia. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, 51(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.155470
  • Di Falco, S., & Chavas, J.-P. (2009). On crop biodiversity, risk exposure, and food security in the highlands of Ethiopia. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 91(3), 599–611. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2009.01265.x
  • Di Falco, S., Yesuf, M., Kohlin, G., & Ringler, C. (2012). Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: Household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Environmental and Resource Economics, 52(4), 457–478. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-011-9538-y
  • Dow, K., Berkhout, F., Preston, B. L., Klein, R. J., Midgley, G., & Shaw, M. R. (2013). Limits to adaptation. Nature Climate Change, 3(4), 305–307. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1847
  • Etana, D., Snelder, D. J., van Wesenbeeck, C. F., & de Cock Buning, T. (2020). Dynamics of smallholder farmers’ livelihood adaptation decision-making in Central Ethiopia. Sustainability, 12(11), 4526. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12114526
  • Ezra, M., & Kiros, G. E. (2001). Rural out‐migration in the drought prone areas of Ethiopia: A multilevel analysis. International Migration Review, 35(3), 749–771. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-7379.2001.tb00039.x
  • Fussell, E., Hunter, L. M., & Gray, C. L. (2014). Measuring the environmental dimensions of human migration: The demographer’s toolkit. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 28, 182–191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.001
  • Gebrehiwot, T., & van der Veen, A. (2013). Assessing the evidence of climate variability in the northern part of Ethiopia. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics, 5(3), 104–119. https://doi.org/10.5897/JDAE12.056
  • Gebrekiros, G., Araya, A., & Yemane, T. (2016). Modeling impact of climate change and variability on sorghum production in southern zone of Tigray, Ethiopia. Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change, 7(1),322. https://doi.org/10.4172/2157-7617.1000322
  • Gemenne, F., & Blocher, J. (2017). How can migration serve adaptation to climate change? Challenges to fleshing out a policy ideal. The Geographical Journal, 183(4), 336–347. https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12205
  • Gray, C., & Mueller, V. (2012). Drought and population mobility in Rural Ethiopia. World Development, 40(1), 134–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.05.023
  • Gray, C. L., & Mueller, V. (2012). Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109(16), 6000–6005. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1115944109
  • Harris, J. R., & Todaro, M. P. (1970). Migration, unemployment and development: A two-sector analysis. The American Economic Review, 60(1), 126–142. http://www.jstor.com/stable/1807860
  • Henry, S., Schoumaker, B., & Beauchemin, C. (2004). The impact of rainfall on the first out-migration: A multi-level event-history analysis in Burkina Faso. Population and Environment, 25(5), 423–460. https://www.jstor.org/stable/27503895
  • Hunter, L. M., Luna, J. K., & Norton, R. M. (2015). Environmental dimensions of migration. Annual Review of Sociology, 41, 377–397. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-073014-112223
  • Hunter, L. M., Murray, S., & Riosmena, F. (2013). Rainfall patterns and US migration from rural Mexico. International Migration Review, 47(4), 874–909. https://doi.org/10.1111/imre.12051
  • Kassie, B., Rötter, R., Hengsdijk, H., Asseng, S., Van Ittersum, M., Kahiluoto, H., & Van Keulen, H. (2014). Climate variability and change in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia: Challenges for rainfed crop production. The Journal of Agricultural Science, 152(1), 58–74. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859612000986
  • Koubi, V., Spilker, G., Schaffer, L., & Bernauer, T. (2016). Environmental stressors and migration: Evidence from Vietnam. World Development, 79, 197–210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.11.016
  • Kubik, Z., & Maurel, M. (2016). Weather shocks, agricultural production and migration: Evidence from Tanzania. Journal of Development Studies, 52(5), 665–680. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2015.1107049
  • Lin, B. B. (2011). Resilience in agriculture through crop diversification: Adaptive management for environmental change. Bioscience, 61(3), 183–193. https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2011.61.3.4
  • McLeman, R., & Smit, B. (2006). Migration as an adaptation to climate change. Climatic Change, 76(1–2), 31–53. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9000-7
  • Meze-Hausken, E. (2000). Migration caused by climate change: How vulnerable are people in dryland areas? A case-study in Northern Ethiopia. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 5(4), 379–406. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026570529614
  • Michler, J. D., & Josephson, A. L. (2017). To specialize or diversify: Agricultural diversity and poverty dynamics in Ethiopia. World Development, 89, 214–226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.08.011
  • Morrissey, J. W. (2013). Understanding the relationship between environmental change and migration: The development of an effects framework based on the case of northern Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change, 23(6), 1501–1510. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.07.021
  • Mueller, V., Gray, C., & Kosec, K. (2014). Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan. Nature Climate Change, 4(3), 182–185. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2103
  • Nawrotzki, R. J., & DeWaard, J. (2016). Climate shocks and the timing of migration from Mexico. Population and Environment, 38(1), 72–100. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-016-0255-x
  • Nawrotzki, R. J., Runfola, D. M., Hunter, L. M., & Riosmena, F. (2016). Domestic and international climate migration from rural Mexico. Human Ecology, 44(6), 687–699. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-016-9859-0
  • Rabe-Hesketh, S., & Skrondal, A. (2013). Avoiding biased versions of Wooldridge’s simple solution to the initial conditions problem. Economics Letters, 120(2), 346–349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2013.05.009
  • Raes, D., Willems, P., & Baguidi, F. (2006, January 27-31). RAINBOW – A software package for analyzing data and testing the homogeneity of historical data sets. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on ‘Sustainable management of marginal drylands’, Islamabad, Pakistan.
  • Ranis, G., & Fei, J. C. (1961). A theory of economic development. The American Economic Review, 51(4), 533–565. http://www.jstor.com/stable/1812785
  • Rijkers, B., & Söderbom, M. (2013). The effects of risk and shocks on non-farm enterprise development in rural Ethiopia. World Development, 45, 119–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.10.013
  • Rosell, S. (2011). Regional perspective on rainfall change and variability in the central highlands of Ethiopia, 1978–2007. Applied Geography, 31(1), 329–338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.07.005
  • Sakdapolrak, P., Promburom, P., & Reif, A. (2014). Why successful in situ adaptation with environmental stress does not prevent people from migrating? Empirical evidence from Northern Thailand. Climate and Development, 6(1), 38–45. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2013.826129
  • Scheffran, J., Marmer, E., & Sow, P. (2012). Migration as a contribution to resilience and innovation in climate adaptation: Social networks and co-development in Northwest Africa. Applied Geography, 33, 119–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.10.002
  • Scoones, I. (1998) Sustainable rural livelihoods: A framework for analysis. IDS Working Paper 72. Brighton, UK: Institute of Development Studies.
  • Stark, O. (1984). Rural-to-urban migration in LDCs: A relative deprivation approach. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 32(3), 475–486. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1153332
  • Stark, O., & Bloom, D. E. (1985). The new economics of labor migration. The American Economic Review, 75(2), 173–178. http://www.jstor.com/stable/1805591
  • Stark, O., & Levhari, D. (1982). On migration and risk in LDCs. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 31(1), 191–196. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1153650
  • Taylor, E. J. (1999). The new economics of labour migration and the role of remittances in the migration process. International Migration, 37(1), 63–88. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2435.00066
  • Warner, K., & Afifi, T. (2014). Where the rain falls: Evidence from 8 countries on how vulnerable households use migration to manage the risk of rainfall variability and food insecurity. Climate and Development, 6(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2013.835707
  • Warner, K., Hamza, M., Oliver-Smith, A., Renaud, F., & Julca, A. (2010). Climate change, environmental degradation and migration. Natural Hazards, 55(3), 689–715. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9419-7
  • Williams, P. A., Crespo, O., Abu, M., & Simpson, N. P. (2018). A systematic review of how vulnerability of smallholder agricultural systems to changing climate is assessed in Africa. Environmental Research Letters, 13(10), 103004. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae026

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.