2,122
Views
4
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Commentary

Commentary: resolving pertussis resurgence and vaccine immunity using mathematical transmission models

ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon & ORCID Icon
Pages 683-686 | Received 22 Sep 2018, Accepted 13 Oct 2018, Published online: 20 Dec 2018

References

  • Edwards KM, Decker MD. Pertussis vaccines. In: Plotkin SA, Orenstein WA, Offit PA, editors. Vaccines, chap. 23. 6th ed. Philadelphia (PA): Elsevier Saunders; 2013. p. 447–492.
  • Gordon JE, Hood RI. Whooping cough and its epidemiological anomalies. Am J Med Sci. 1951;222:333–361.
  • Shapiro-Shapin CG. Pearl Kendrick, Grace Eldering, and the pertussis vaccine. Emerg Infect Dis. 2010;16:1273–1278. doi:10.3201/eid1608.100288.
  • Rohani P, Drake JM. The decline and resurgence of pertussis in the US. Epidemics. 2011;3:183–188. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2011.10.001.
  • Broder KR, Cortese MM, Iskander JK, Kretsinger K, Slade BA,  Brown KH,  Mijalski CM, Tiwari T, Weston EJ, et al. Preventing tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis among adolescents: use of tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid and acellular pertussis vaccines recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). MMWR Recomm Rep. 2006;55:1–34.
  • Skoff TH, Martin SW. Impact of tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis vaccinations on reported pertussis cases among those 11 to 18 years of age in an era of waning pertussis immunity: A follow-up analysis. JAMA Pediatr. 2016;170:453–458. doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2015.3886.
  • Domenech de Cellès M, Magpantay FMG, King AA, Rohani P. The impact of past vaccination coverage and immunity on pertussis resurgence. Sci Transl Med. 2018;10. doi:10.1126/scitranslmed.aao4496.
  • Magpantay F, Riolo M, Domenech de Cellès M, King A, Rohani P. Epidemiological consequences of imperfect vaccines for immunizing infections. SIAM J Appl Math. 2014;74(6):1810–1830. doi:10.1137/140956695.
  • Magpantay FMG, Domenech de Cellès M, Rohani P, King AA. Pertussis immunity and epidemiology: mode and duration of vaccine-induced immunity. Parasitology. 2016;143(7):835–849.
  • King AA, Nguyen D, Ionides EL. Statistical inference for partially observed Markov processes via the R package pomp. J Stat Softw. 2016;69:1–43. doi:10.18637/jss.v069.i12.
  • Ionides EL, Bretó C, King AA. Inference for nonlinear dynamical systems. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2006;103:18438–18443. doi:10.1073/pnas.0603181103.
  • Ionides EL, Nguyen D, Atchadé Y, Stoev S, King AA. Inference for dynamic and latent variable models via iterated, perturbed Bayes maps. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2015;112:719–724. doi:10.1073/pnas.1410597112.
  • Bento AI, Riolo MA, Choi YH, King AA, Rohani P. Core pertussis transmission groups in England and Wales: A tale of two eras. Vaccine. 2018;36:1160–1166. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.01.046.
  • Rohani P, Earn DJ, Grenfell BT. Opposite patterns of synchrony in sympatric disease metapopulations. Science. 1999;286:968–971.
  • Keeling MJ, Rohani P. Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals. Princeton (NJ): Princeton University Press; 2008. http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/fy0805/2006939548.html.
  • Broutin H, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Miller MA, Rohani P. Impact of vaccination and birth rate on the epidemiology of pertussis: a comparative study in 64 countries. Proc Biol Sci. 2010;277:3239–3245. doi:10.1098/rspb.2010.0994.
  • Rohani P, Zhong X, King AA. Contact network structure explains the changing epidemiology of pertussis. Science. 2010;330:982–985. doi:10.1126/science.1194134.
  • Anderson RM, May RM. Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991. http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0636/90014312-d.html.
  • Lavine JS, Rohani P. Resolving pertussis immunity and vaccine effectiveness using incidence time series. Expert Rev Vaccines. 2012;11:1319–1329. doi:10.1586/erv.12.109.
  • Lavine JS, King AA, Bjørnstad ON. Natural immune boosting in pertussis dynamics and the potential for long-term vaccine failure. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2011;108:7259–7264. doi:10.1073/pnas.1014394108.
  • Jackson DW, Rohani P. Perplexities of pertussis: recent global epidemiological trends and their potential causes. Epidemiol Infect. 2014;142:672–684. doi:10.1017/S0950268814000211.
  • Domenech de Cellès M, Magpantay FMG, King AA, Rohani P. The pertussis enigma: reconciling epidemiology, immunology and evolution. Proc Biol Sci. 2016;283. doi:10.1098/rspb.2016.0343.
  • Warfel JM, Zimmerman LI, Merkel TJ. Acellular pertussis vaccines protect against disease but fail to prevent infection and transmission in a nonhuman primate model. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2014;111:787–792. doi:10.1073/pnas.1314688110.
  • Domenech de Cellès M, Riolo MA, Magpantay FMG, Rohani P, King AA. Epidemiological evidence for herd immunity induced by acellular pertussis vaccines. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2014;111:E716–E717. doi:10.1073/pnas.1323795111.
  • Marchant CD, Loughlin AM, Lett SM, Todd CW, Wetterlow LH, Bicchieri R, Higham S, Etkind P, Silva E, Siber GR. Pertussis in Massachusetts, 1981-1991: incidence, serologic diagnosis, and vaccine effectiveness. J Infect Dis. 1994;169:1297–1305. doi:10.1093/infdis/169.6.1297.
  • McGirr A, Fisman DN. Duration of pertussis immunity after dtap immunization: a meta-analysis. Pediatrics. 2015;135:331–343.
  • Klein NP, Bartlett J, Rowhani-Rahbar A, Fireman B, Baxter R. Waning protection after fifth dose of acellular pertussis vaccine in children. N Engl J Med. 2012;367:1012–1019. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1200850.
  • McLean AR, Anderson RM. Measles in developing countries. Part II. The predicted impact of mass vaccination. Epidemiol Infect. 1988;100:419–442. doi:10.1017/S0950268800067170.
  • Gambhir M, Clark TA, Cauchemez S, Tartof SY, Swerdlow DL, Ferguson NM, Salathé M. A change in vaccine efficacy and duration of protection explains recent rises in pertussis incidence in the United States. PLoS Comput Biol. 2015;11:e1004138. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004138.
  • Rohani P, Keeling MJ, Grenfell BT. The interplay between determinism and stochasticity in childhood diseases. Am Nat. 2002;159:469–481. doi:10.1086/339467.
  • Choi YH, Campbell H, Amirthalingam G, van Hoek AJ, Miller E. Investigating the pertussis resurgence in England and Wales, and options for future control. BMC Med. 2016;14:121. doi:10.1186/s12916-016-0665-8.
  • Campbell PT, McCaw JM, McIntyre P, McVernon J. Defining long-term drivers of pertussis resurgence, and optimal vaccine control strategies. Vaccine. 2015;33:5794–5800. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.09.025.
  • Basu S, Andrews J. Complexity in mathematical models of public health policies: a guide for consumers of models. PLoS Med. 2013;10:e1001540. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001540.