152
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Quantile regression analysis of time-space variation characteristics of tropical cyclones in the west North Pacific basin under global warming

, , &
Pages 551-574 | Received 29 Dec 2021, Accepted 20 Sep 2022, Published online: 05 Oct 2022

References

  • Atkinson, G. D., and C. R. Holliday. 1977. “Tropical Cyclone Minimum Sea Level pressure/maximum Sustained Wind Relationship for the Western North Pacific.” Monthly Weather Review 105 (4): 421–427. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1977)105<0421:TCMSLP>2.0.CO;2.
  • Balaji, M., A. Chakraborty, and M. Mandal. 2018. “Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in North Indian Ocean during Satellite Era (1981–2014).” International Journal of Climatology 38 (6): 2819–2837. doi:10.1002/joc.5463.
  • Bengtsson, L., K.I. Hodges, and M. Esch. 2007. “How May Tropical Cyclones Change in a Warmer Climate?” Tellus A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 59 (4): 539–561. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00251.x.
  • Camargo, S.J., A.W. Robertson, S.J. Gaffney, P. Smyth, and M. Ghil. 2007. “Cluster Analysis of Typhoon Tracks.” Part I: Large-scale Circulation and ENSO. J Climate 20 (14): 3654–3676.
  • Camargo, S.J., and A.H. Sobel. 2005. “Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity and ENSO.” J Climate 18 (15): 2996–3006. doi:10.1175/JCLI3457.1.
  • Cao, C., J.Y. Peng, and J.H. Yu. 2006. “An Analysis on the Characteristics of Land Falling Typhoons in China under Global Climate Warming.” Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology 29 (4): 455–461.
  • Chan, J.C.L. 2006. “Comment on “Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment.” Science 311 (5768): 1713b–1713b. doi:10.1126/science.1121522.
  • Chan, J., and J.E. Shi. 1996a. “Long-term Trends and Interannual Variability in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific.” Geophysical Research Letters 23 (20): 2765–2767. doi:10.1029/96GL02637.
  • Chan, J.C.L., and J.E. Shi. 1996b. “Long-term Trends and Interannual Variability in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific.” Geophysical Research Letters 23 (20): 2765–2767.
  • Chavas, D. R., K. A. Reed, and J. A. Knaff. 2017. “Physical Understanding of the Tropical Cyclone wind-pressure Relationship.” Nature Communications 8 (1): 1–11. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01546-9.
  • Chen, C. 2004. An Adaptive Algorithm for Quantile Regression. Basel: Birkhauser.
  • Chen, T.C., S.P. Weng, Y. Nubuo, and K. Susan. 1998. “Interannual Variation in the Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Western North Pacific.” Monthly Weather Review 126 (4): 1080–1090. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1080:IVITTC>2.0.CO;2.
  • Chia, H.H., and C.F. Ropelewski. 2002. “The Interannual Variability in the Genesis Location of Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific.” Journal of Climate 15 (20): 2934–2944. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2934:TIVITG>2.0.CO;2.
  • Deo, A. A., and D. W. Ganer. 2014. “Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Indian Ocean in the Warmer Climate.” In Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change, 72–80. Springer: Dordrecht, Netherlands.
  • Dvorak, V. F. 1984. Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis Using Satellite Data. NOAA Tech. Rep. NESDIS, 11, US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service.
  • Emanuel, K. 2005. “Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Cyclones over the past 30 Years.” Nature 436 (7051): 686–688. doi:10.1038/nature03906.
  • Fudeyasu, H., and S. Iizuka. 2006. “Impact of ENSO on Landfall Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific during the Summer Monsoon Season.” Geophysical Research Letters 33 (21): 1–5. doi:10.1029/2006GL027449.
  • Gyamfi, B. A., S. T. Onifade, C. Nwani, and F. V. Bekun. 2022. “Accounting for the Combined Impacts of Natural Resources Rent, Income Level, and Energy Consumption on Environmental Quality of G7 Economies: A Panel Quantile Regression Approach.” Environmental Science and Pollution Research 29 (2): 2806–2818. doi:10.1007/s11356-021-15756-8.
  • Haig, J., J. Nott, and G. J. Reichart. 2014. “Australian Tropical Cyclone Activity Lower than at Any Time over the past 550–1,500 Years.” Nature 505 (7485): 667–671. doi:10.1038/nature12882.
  • Harper, B. 2002. “Tropical Cyclone Parameter Estimation in the Australian Region.“ Systems Engineering Australia Pty Ltd for Woodside Energy Ltd, Perth, 83.
  • He, H., J. Yang, D. Gong, R. Mao, Y. Wang, and M. Gao. 2015. “Decadal Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific in the Late 1990s.” Climate Dynamics 45 (11): 3317–3329. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2541-1.
  • Hoyos, C. D., P. A. Agudelo, P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry. 2006. “Deconvolution of the Factors Contributing to the Increase in Global Hurricane Intensity.” Science 312 (5770): 94–97. doi:10.1126/science.1123560.
  • Huang, Y., H. Zhu, and Z. Zhang. 2020. “The Heterogeneous Effect of Driving Factors on Carbon Emission Intensity in the Chinese Transport Sector: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Quantile Regression. Science of the Total Environment, 727, 138578.James, B.E., James, P.K., Thomas, H.J., 2008. The Increasing Intensity of the Strongest Tropical Cyclones.” Nature 455 (7209): 92–95.
  • Kistler, R., J. Woollen, W. Collins, S. Saha, G. White, J. Woollen, M. Chelliah, et al. 2001. “The NCEP-NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis: Monthly Means CD-ROM and Documentation.” Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc 82 (2): 247–268. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0247:TNNYRM>2.3.CO;2.
  • Klotzbach, P.J. 2006. “Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity over the past Twenty Years (1986-2005).” Geophysical Research Letters 33 (331): 3477–3495. doi:10.1029/2006GL025881.
  • Knapp, K. R., M. C. Kruk, D. H. Levinson, H. J. Diamond, and C. J. Neumann. 2010. “The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (Ibtracs): Unifying Tropical Cyclone Best Track Data.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91 (3): 363–376. doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1.
  • Knutson, T., S. J. Camargo, J. C. Chan, K. Emanuel, C. H. Ho, J. Kossin, … L. Wu. 2019. “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 100 (10): 1987–2007. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1.
  • Landsea, C. 2007. “Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900.” Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union 88 (18): 197–202. doi:10.1029/2007EO180001.
  • Lee, T. C., T. R. Knutson, H. Kamahori, and M. Ying. 2012. “Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin.” Part I: Past Observations. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 1 2012.(2): 213–235.
  • Lu, X.Q., H. Yu, M. Ying, B.K. Zhao, S. Zhang, L.M. Lin, L.N. Bai, and R.J. Wan. 2021. “Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Database Created by the China Meteorological Administration.” Adv. Atmos. Sci 38 (4): 690–699. doi:10.1007/s00376-020-0211-7.
  • Mei, W., F.W. Primeau, J.C. Mcwilliams, and C. Pasquero. 2013. “Sea Surface Height Evidence for long-term Warming Effects of Tropical Cyclones on the Ocean.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110 (38): 15207–15210. doi:10.1073/pnas.1306753110.
  • Moon, I. J., S. H. Kim, and J. C Chan. 2019. “Climate Change and Tropical Cyclone Trend.” Nature 570 (7759): E3–E5. doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1222-3.
  • Murakami, H., T. Li, and M.S. Peng. 2013. “Changes to Environmental Parameters that Control Tropical Cyclone Genesis under Global Warming.” Geophys Res Lett 40 (13): 2265–2270. doi:10.1002/grl.50393.
  • Nawaz, M. A., M. S. Hussain, H. W. Kamran, S. Ehsanullah, R. Maheen, and F. Shair. 2021. “Trilemma Association of Energy Consumption, Carbon Emission, and Economic Growth of BRICS and OECD Regions: Quantile Regression Estimation.” Environmental Science and Pollution Research 28 (13): 16014–16028. doi:10.1007/s11356-020-11823-8.
  • Olander, Timothy L. , Christopher S. Velden, and Michael A. Turk. 2002. “Development of the Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT)—Current Progress and Future Directions.” In Preprints, 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 585–586. CA: San Diego, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
  • Olander, T. L., and C. S. Velden. 2007. “The Advanced Dvorak Technique: Continued Development of an Objective Scheme to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using Geostationary Infrared Satellite Imagery.” Weather and Forecasting 22 (2): 287–298. doi:10.1175/WAF975.1.
  • Olander, T. L., and C. S. Velden. 2019. “The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity: Update and New Capabilities.” Weather and Forecasting 34 (4): 905–922. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-19-0007.1.
  • Patricola, C. M., S. J. Camargo, P. J. Klotzbach, R. Saravanan, and P. Chang. 2018. “The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity.” Journal of Climate 31 (14): 5395–5416. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1.
  • Schreck, C. J., K. R. Knapp, and J. P. Kossin. 2014. “The Impact of Best Track Discrepancies on Global Tropical Cyclone Climatologies Using IBTrACS.” Monthly Weather Review 142 (10): 3881–3899. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00021.1.
  • Tu, J.Y., C. Chou, and P.S. Chu. 2009. “The Abrupt Shift of Typhoon Activity in the Vicinity of Taiwan and Its Association with Western North Pacific-East Asian Climate Change.” Journal of Climate 22 (13): 3617–3628. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2411.1.
  • Velden, C. S., T. L. Olander, and R. M Zehr. 1998. “Development of an Objective Scheme to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Digital Geostationary Satellite Infrared Imagery.” Weather and Forecasting 13 (1): 172–186. doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0172:DOAOST>2.0.CO;2.
  • Wang, B., and J.C.L. Chan. 2002. “How Strong ENSO Events Affect Tropical Storm Activity over the Western North Pacific.” Journal of Climate 15 (13): 1643–1658. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1643:HSEEAT>2.0.CO;2.
  • Wang, X. L., Y. Feng, G. P. Compo, V. R. Swail, F. W. Zwiers, R. J. Allan, and P. D. Sardeshmukh. 2013. “Trends and Low Frequency Variability of extra-tropical Cyclone Activity in the Ensemble of Twentieth Century Reanalysis.” Climate Dynamics 40 (11): 2775–2800. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1450-9.
  • Webster, P.J., G.J. Holland, J.A. Curry, and H. Chang. 2005. “Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number.” Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment. Science 309 (5742): 1844–1846.
  • Wu, M.C., W.L. Chang, and W.M. Leung. 2004. “Impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation Events on Tropical Cyclone Landfalling Activity in the Western North Pacific.” Journal of Climate 17 (6): 1419–1428. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1419:IOENOE>2.0.CO;2.
  • Wu, L., B. Wang, and S. Geng. 2005. “Growing Typhoon Influence on East Asia.” Geophysical Research Letters 32 (18): L18701–18704. doi:10.1029/2005GL022937.
  • Yang, L.Y.C., and L.X. Wu. 2019. “Interannual Variations of Tropical Cyclones Activity over the Western North Pacific and Relationship with large-scale Circulation Background.” Periodical of Ocean University of China 49 (5): 11–20.
  • Ying, M., W. Zhang, H. Yu, X. Lu, J. Feng, Y. Fan, and Y. Zhu. 2014. “An Overview of the China Meteorological Administration Tropical Cyclone Database.” Atmos. Oceanic Technol 31 (2): 287–301.
  • Yin Chengtuan, Zhang Ran, Xiong Mengjie, Zhang Weisheng, and Zhang Jinshan. 2019. “A Study on the Relationship between Minimum Air Pressure and Maximum Wind Speed of Landing Tropical Cyclone Center in China.” Journal of the Meteorological Sciences 39 (6): 834–838. (in Chinese)
  • Yu, K., Z. Lu, and J. Stander. 2003. “Quantile Regression: Applications and Current Research Areas.” Statistician 52 (3): 331–350.
  • Zhan, R., Y. Wang, and X. Lei. 2011. “Contributions of ENSO and East Indian Ocean SSTA to the Interannual Variability of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Frequency.” Journal of Climate 24 (2): 509–521. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3808.1.
  • Zhao, H., L. Wu, and W. Zhou. 2009. “Observational Relationship of Climatologic Beta Drift with Large‐scale Environmental Flows.” Geophysical Research Letters 36 (18): 1–5. doi:10.1029/2009GL040126.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.