390
Views
7
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
ARTICLES

Application of local conditional autoregressive models for development of zonal crash prediction models and identification of crash risk boundaries

, ORCID Icon &
Pages 1102-1123 | Received 07 May 2018, Accepted 28 Dec 2018, Published online: 08 Jan 2019

References

  • Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Jaeyoung Lee, Chowdhury Siddiqui, and Keechoo Choi. 2013. “Geographical Unit Based Analysis in the Context of Transportation Safety Planning.” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 49: 62–75. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2013.01.030.
  • Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Chowdhury Siddiqui, Helai Huang, and Xuesong Wang. 2011. “Integrating Trip and Roadway Characteristics to Manage Safety in Traffic Analysis Zones.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2213 (1): 20–28. doi: 10.3141/2213-04
  • Agresti, Alan. 2015. Foundations of Linear and Generalized Linear Models. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan, and Paul P. Jovanis. 2006. “Spatial Analysis of Fatal and Injury Crashes in Pennsylvania.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 38 (3): 618–625. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2005.12.006
  • Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan, and Paul Jovanis. 2008. “Analysis of Road Crash Frequency with Spatial Models.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2061 (1): 55–63. doi: 10.3141/2061-07
  • Aguero-Valverde, J., and P. P. Jovanis. 2010. “Spatial Correlation in Multilevel Crash Frequency Models: Effects of Different Neighboring Structures.” Transportation Research Record 2165 (1): 21–32. doi: 10.3141/2165-03
  • Amoh-Gyimah, Richard, Meead Saberi, and Majid Sarvi. 2017. “The Effect of Variations in Spatial Units on Unobserved Heterogeneity in Macroscopic Crash Models.” Analytic Methods in Accident Research 13: 28–51. doi: 10.1016/j.amar.2016.11.001
  • Anselin, Luc. 2013. Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Vol. 4. Dordrecht: Springer Science & Business Media.
  • Belsley, David A., Edwin Kuh, and Roy E. Welsch. 2005. Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity. Vol. 571. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Besag, Julian, Jeremy York, and Annie Mollié. 1991. “Bayesian Image Restoration, with Two Applications in Spatial Statistics.” Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 43 (1): 1–20. doi: 10.1007/BF00116466
  • Brooks, Stephen P, and Andrew Gelman. 1998. “General Methods for Monitoring Convergence of Iterative Simulations.” Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 7 (4): 434–455.
  • Cai, Qing, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, Jaeyoung Lee, and Naveen Eluru. 2017. “Comparative Analysis of Zonal Systems for Macro-level Crash Modeling.” Journal of Safety Research 61: 157–166. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2017.02.018
  • Cai, Qing, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, Jaeyoung Lee, and Helai Huang. 2018. “Integrating Macro and Micro Level Safety Analyses: A Bayesian Approach Incorporating Spatial Interaction.” Transportmetrica A:Transport Science, in press. doi:10.1080/23249935.2018.1471752.
  • Cai, Qing, Jaeyoung Lee, Naveen Eluru, and Mohamed Abdel-Aty. 2016. “Macro-level Pedestrian and Bicycle Crash Analysis: Incorporating Spatial Spillover Effects in Dual State Count Models.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 93: 14–22. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.04.018
  • Chatterjee, Arun, Frederick Wegmann, Nicholas Fortey, and Jerry Everett. 2001. “Incorporating Safety and Security Issues in Urban Transportation Planning.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1777: 75–83. doi: 10.3141/1777-08
  • Dunteman, George H., and Moon-Ho R. Ho. 2005. An Introduction to Generalized Linear Models. Vol. 145. Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications.
  • Gårder, Per. 1989. “Pedestrian Safety at Traffic Signals: A Study Carried Out with the Help of a Traffic Conflicts Technique.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 21 (5): 435–444. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(89)90004-3
  • Gelman, Andrew, and Donald B. Rubin. 1992. “Inference from Iterative Simulation Using Multiple Sequences.” Statistical Science 7 (4): 457–472. doi: 10.1214/ss/1177011136
  • Guo, Feng, Xuesong Wang, and Mohamed A. Abdel-Aty. 2010. “Modeling Signalized Intersection Safety with Corridor-level Spatial Correlations.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 42 (1): 84–92. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2009.07.005
  • Guo, Qiang, Pengpeng Xu, Xin Pei, S. C. Wong, and Danya Yao. 2017. “The Effect of Road Network Patterns on Pedestrian Safety: A Zone-based Bayesian Spatial Modeling Approach.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 99: 114–124. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.11.002
  • Hadayeghi, Alireza, Amer Shalaby, and Bhagwant Persaud. 2003. “Macrolevel Accident Prediction Models for Evaluating Safety of Urban Transportation Systems.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1840: 87–95. doi: 10.3141/1840-10
  • Hadayeghi, Alireza, Amer S. Shalaby, and Bhagwant N. Persaud. 2010. “Development of Planning Level Transportation Safety Tools Using Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 42 (2): 676–688. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2009.10.016
  • Hadayeghi, Alireza, Amer S. Shalaby, Bhagwant N. Persaud, and Carl Cheung. 2006. “Temporal Transferability and Updating of Zonal Level Accident Prediction Models.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 38 (3): 579–589. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2005.12.003
  • Hashimoto, Tomoyuki. 2005. “Spatial Analysis of Pedestrian Accidents.” M.S., University of South Florida.
  • Huang, Helai, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, and Ali Darwiche. 2010. “County-level Crash Risk Analysis in Florida: Bayesian Spatial Modeling.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2148: 27–37. doi: 10.3141/2148-04
  • Huang, Helai, Bo Song, Pengpeng Xu, Qiang Zeng, Jaeyoung Lee, and Mohamed Abdel-Aty. 2016. “Macro and Micro Models for Zonal Crash Prediction with Application in Hot Zones Identification.” Journal of Transport Geography 54: 248–256. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.06.012
  • Huang, Helai, Hanchu Zhou, Jie Wang, Fangrong Chang, and Ming Ma. 2017. “A Multivariate Spatial Model of Crash Frequency by Transportation Modes for Urban Intersections.” Analytic Methods in Accident Research 14: 10–21. doi: 10.1016/j.amar.2017.01.001
  • Hurwitz, David S., Haizhong Wang, Michael A. Knodler, Daiheng Ni, and Derek Moore. 2012. “Fuzzy Sets to Describe Driver Behavior in the Dilemma Zone of High-speed Signalized Intersections.” Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour 15 (2): 132–143. doi: 10.1016/j.trf.2011.11.003
  • Kennedy, Peter. 1992. A Guide to Econometrics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  • Khorashadi, Ahmad. 1998. Effects of Ramp Type and Geometry on Accidents (Report No. FHWA/CA/TE98/13). California Department of Transportation, Sacremento, California.
  • Kim, Karl, Pradip Pant, and Eric Yamashita. 2010. “Accidents and Accessibility: Measuring Influences of Demographic and Land Use Variables in Honolulu, Hawaii.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2147: 9–17. doi: 10.3141/2147-02
  • Lawson, Andrew B., and Allan Clark. 2002. “Spatial Mixture Relative Risk Models Applied to Disease Mapping.” Statistics in Medicine 21 (3): 359–370. doi: 10.1002/sim.1022
  • Lee, Duncan. 2011. “A Comparison of Conditional Autoregressive Models Used in Bayesian Disease Mapping.” Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology 2 (2): 79–89. doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2011.03.001
  • Lee, Duncan. 2013. “CARBayes: An R Package for Bayesian Spatial Modeling with Conditional Autoregressive Priors.” Journal of Statistical Software 55 (13): 24. doi: 10.18637/jss.v055.i13
  • Lee, Chris, and Mohamed Abdel-Aty. 2008. “Two-level Nested Logit Model to Identify Traffic Flow Parameters Affecting Crash Occurrence on Freeway Ramps.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2083: 145–152. doi: 10.3141/2083-17
  • Lee, Chris, and Mohamed Abdel-Aty. 2009. “Analysis of Crashes on Freeway Ramps by Location of Crash and Presence of Advisory Speed Signs.” Journal of Transportation Safety & Security 1 (2): 121–134. doi: 10.1080/19439960902735329
  • Lee, Jaeyoung, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, and Ximiao Jiang. 2014. “Development of Zone System for Macro-level Traffic Safety Analysis.” Journal of Transport Geography 38: 13–21. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2014.04.018
  • Lee, Duncan, and Richard Mitchell. 2012. “Boundary Detection in Disease Mapping Studies.” Biostatistics (Oxford, England) 13 (3): 415–426. doi: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxr036
  • Lee, Duncan, and Christophe Sarran. 2015. “Controlling for Unmeasured Confounding and Spatial Misalignment in Long Term Air Pollution and Health Studies.” Environmetrics 26 (7): 477–487. doi: 10.1002/env.2348
  • Leroux, Brian G., Xingye Lei, and Norman Breslow. 1999. “Estimation of Disease Rates in Small Areas: A New Mixed Model for Spatial Dependence.” In Statistical Models in Epidemiology. The Environment and Clinical Trials, edited by M. E. Halloran, and D. A. Berry, 179–192. New York: Springer.
  • Leroux, B. G., X. Lei, N. Breslow, M. E. Halloran, and D. Berry. 1995. “Spatial Analysis of Honolulu Motor Vehicle Crashes: II. Zonal Generators.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 27 (5): 675–685. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(95)00018-U
  • Lesaffre, Emmanuel, and Brian D Marx. 1993. “Collinearity in Generalized Linear Regression.” Communications in Statistics – Theory and Methods 22 (7): 1933–1952. doi: 10.1080/03610929308831126
  • Levine, Ned, Karl E. Kim, and Lawrence H. Nitz. 1995. “Spatial Analysis of Honolulu Motor Vehicle Crashes: I. Spatial Patterns.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 27 (5): 663–674. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(95)00017-T
  • Li, Xiugang, Dominique Lord, and Yunlong Zhang. 2010. “Development of Accident Modification Factors for Rural Frontage Road Segments in Texas Using Generalized Additive Models.” Journal of Transportation Engineering 137 (1): 74–83. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000202
  • Li, Zhibin, Wei Wang, Pan Liu, John M. Bigham, and David R. Ragland. 2013. “Using Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression for County-level Crash Modeling in California.” Safety Science 58: 89–97. doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2013.04.005
  • Litman, Todd. 2005. “Land Use Impacts on Transport: How Land Use Factors Affect Travel Behavior.” Victoria Transport Institute, Victoria, Canada.
  • Liu, Chiu, Robert Herman, and Denos C Gazis. 1996. “A Review of the Yellow Interval Dilemma.” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 30 (5): 333–348.
  • Lord, Dominique, and James Bonneson. 2005. “Calibration of Predictive Models for Estimating Safety of Ramp Design Configurations.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1908: 88–95. doi: 10.3141/1908-11
  • Lord, Dominique, and James Bonneson. 2007. “Development of Accident Modification Factors for Rural Frontage Road Segments in Texas.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2023: 20–27. doi: 10.3141/2023-03
  • Lovegrove, Gordon R., and Tarek Sayed. 2006. “Macro-level Collision Prediction Models for Evaluating Neighbourhood Traffic Safety.” Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 33 (5): 609–621. doi: 10.1139/l06-013
  • Lu, Haolan, Cavan S Reilly, Sudipto Banerjee, and Bradley P. Carlin. 2007. “Bayesian Areal Wombling via Adjacency Modeling.” Environmental and Ecological Statistics 14 (4): 433–452. doi: 10.1007/s10651-007-0029-9
  • McCulloch, Charles E., and John M. Neuhaus, 2006. “Generalized Linear Mixed Models.” In Encyclopedia of Environmetrics. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470057339.vag009.pub2.
  • Miaou, Shaw-Pin, and Joon Jin Song. 2005. “Bayesian Ranking of Sites for Engineering Safety Improvements: Decision Parameter, Treatability Concept, Statistical Criterion, and Spatial Dependence.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 37 (4): 699–720. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2005.03.012
  • Naderan, Ali, and Jalil Shahi. 2010. “Aggregate Crash Prediction Models: Introducing Crash Generation Concept.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 42 (1): 339–346. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2009.08.020
  • Osama, Ahmed, and Tarek Sayed. 2017. “Macro-spatial Approach for Evaluating the Impact of Socio-economics, Land Use, Built Environment and Road Facility on Pedestrian Safety.” Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 44 (12): 1036–1044. doi: 10.1139/cjce-2017-0145
  • Papaioannou, Panagiotis. 2007. “Driver Behaviour, Dilemma Zone and Safety Effects at Urban Signalised Intersections in Greece.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 39 (1): 147–158. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2006.06.014
  • Pulugurtha, Srinivas S., Venkata Ramana Duddu, and Yashaswi Kotagiri. 2013. “Traffic Analysis Zone Level Crash Estimation Models Based on Land Use Characteristics.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 50: 678–687. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.06.016
  • Pulugurtha, Srinivas S., and Venkata R. Sambhara. 2011. “Pedestrian Crash Estimation Models for Signalized Intersections.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 43 (1): 439–446. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2010.09.014
  • Quddus, Mohammed A. 2008. “Modelling Area-wide Count Outcomes with Spatial Correlation and Heterogeneity: An Analysis of London Crash Data.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 40 (4): 1486–1497. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2008.03.009
  • R Development Core Team. 2018. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
  • Saha, Dibakar, Priyanka Alluri, Albert Gan, and Wanyang Wu. 2018. “Spatial Analysis of Macro-level Bicycle Crashes Using the Class of Conditional Autoregressive Models.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 118: 166–177. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2018.02.014
  • Sayed, Tarek, and Paul de Leur. 2000. “Developing A Systematic Framework For Proactive Road Safety Planning.” ICTCT Proceeding 7–20, Corfu, Greece.
  • Schneider, Robert, Mara Diogenes, Lindsay Arnold, Vanvisa Attaset, Julia Griswold, and David Ragland. 2010. “Association Between Roadway Intersection Characteristics and Pedestrian Crash Risk in Alameda County, California.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2198: 41–51. doi: 10.3141/2198-06
  • Sharma, Anuj, Darcy Bullock, and Srinivas Peeta. 2011. “Estimating Dilemma Zone Hazard Function at High Speed Isolated Intersection.” Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies 19 (3): 400–412. doi: 10.1016/j.trc.2010.05.002
  • Song, Joon Jin, M. Ghosh, S. Miaou, and B. Mallick. 2006. “Bayesian Multivariate Spatial Models for Roadway Traffic Crash Mapping.” Journal of Multivariate Analysis 97 (1): 246–273. doi: 10.1016/j.jmva.2005.03.007
  • Spiegelhalter, David J., Nicola G. Best, Bradley P. Carlin, and Angelika Van Der Linde. 2002. “Bayesian Measures of Model Complexity and Fit.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) 64 (4): 583–639. doi: 10.1111/1467-9868.00353
  • Stern, Hal, and Noel A. Cressie. 1999. “Inference for Extremes in Disease Mapping.” In Disease Mapping and Risk Assessment for Public Health, edited by A. Lawson, A. Biggeri, D. Bohning, E. Lesaffre, J. F. Viel, and R. Bertollini, 63–84. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Sun, Jian, Tienan Li, Feng Li, and Feng Chen. 2016. “Analysis of Safety Factors for Urban Expressways Considering the Effect of Congestion in Shanghai, China.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 95: 503–511. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2015.12.011
  • Tarko, Andrew, Mike Inerowicz, Jorge Ramos, and Wei Li. 2008. “Tool with Road-level Crash Prediction for Transportation Safety Planning.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2083: 16–25. doi: 10.3141/2083-03
  • Tasic, Ivana, and Richard J. Porter. 2016. “Modeling Spatial Relationships Between Multimodal Transportation Infrastructure and Traffic Safety Outcomes in Urban Environments.” Safety Science 82: 325–337. doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2015.09.021
  • Ukkusuri, Satish, Samiul Hasan, and H. Aziz. 2011. “Random Parameter Model Used to Explain Effects of Built-environment Characteristics on Pedestrian Crash Frequency.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2237: 98–106. doi: 10.3141/2237-11
  • Version, SAS. 2011. 9.3 [Computer Software]. Cary, NC: SAS Institute.
  • Wang, Jun, and Forrest Council. 1999. “Estimating Truck-rollover Crashes on Ramps by Using a Multistate Database.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1686: 29–35. doi: 10.3141/1686-05
  • Wang, Jie, Helai Huang, and Qiang Zeng. 2017. “The Effect of Zonal Factors in Estimating Crash Risks by Transportation Modes: Motor Vehicle, Bicycle and Pedestrian.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 98: 223–231. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.10.018
  • Wang, Yiyi, and Kara M. Kockelman. 2013. “A Poisson-lognormal Conditional-autoregressive Model for Multivariate Spatial Analysis of Pedestrian Crash Counts Across Neighborhoods.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 60: 71–84. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2013.07.030
  • Wang, Chao, Mohammed A. Quddus, and Stephen G. Ison. 2009. “Impact of Traffic Congestion on Road Accidents: A Spatial Analysis of the M25 Motorway in England.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 41 (4): 798–808. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2009.04.002
  • Wang, Xuesong, Junguang Yang, Chris Lee, Zhuoran Ji, and Shikai You. 2016. “Macro-level Safety Analysis of Pedestrian Crashes in Shanghai, China.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 96: 12–21. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.07.028
  • Wier, Megan, June Weintraub, Elizabeth H. Humphreys, Edmund Seto, and Rajiv Bhatia. 2009. “An Area-level Model of Vehicle-pedestrian Injury Collisions with Implications for Land Use and Transportation Planning.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 41 (1): 137–145. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2008.10.001
  • World Health Organization. 2015a. Global Status Report on Road Safety 2015. World Health Organization.
  • World Health Organization. 2015b. World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention. Geneva: WHO.
  • Xu, Pengpeng, and Helai Huang. 2015. “Modeling Crash Spatial Heterogeneity: Random Parameter Versus Geographically Weighting.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 75: 16–25. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2014.10.020
  • Xu, Pengpeng, Helai Huang, Ni Dong, and S. C. Wong. 2017. “Revisiting Crash Spatial Heterogeneity: A Bayesian Spatially Varying Coefficients Approach.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 98: 330–337. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.10.015
  • Yasmin, Shamsunnahar, and Naveen Eluru. 2018. “A Joint Econometric Framework for Modeling Crash Counts by Severity.” Transportmetrica A: Transport Science 14 (3): 230–255. doi: 10.1080/23249935.2017.1369469
  • Zeng, Qiang, and Helai Huang. 2014. “Bayesian Spatial Joint Modeling of Traffic Crashes on an Urban Road Network.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 67: 105–112. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2014.02.018
  • Zeng, Qiang, Huiying Wen, Helai Huang, and Mohamed Abdel-Aty. 2017. “A Bayesian Spatial Random Parameters Tobit Model for Analyzing Crash Rates on Roadway Segments.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 100: 37–43. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.12.023
  • Zeng, Qiang, Huiying Wen, Helai Huang, Xin Pei, and S. C. Wong. 2018. “Incorporating Temporal Correlation Into a Multivariate Random Parameters Tobit Model for Modeling Crash Rate by Injury Severity.” Transportmetrica A: Transport Science 14 (3): 177–191. doi: 10.1080/23249935.2017.1353556
  • Zimmerman, Karl, and James Bonneson. 2004. “Intersection Safety at High-speed Signalized Intersections: Number of Vehicles in Dilemma Zone as Potential Measure.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1897: 126–133. doi: 10.3141/1897-16

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.