Analysis of Battleground State Presidential Polling Performances, 2004–2012

REFERENCES

• Associated Press (2012), Obama Turkey Pardon: President Spares Cobbler and Gobbler In Thanksgiving Tradition, Huffington Post. Available at https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/21/obama-turkey-pardon-2012_n_2170655.html
   Google Scholar
• Blumberg, S.J., Luke, J.V., Ganesh, N., Davern, M.E., Boudreaux, M.H., Soderberg, K. (2011), “Wireless Substitution: State-level Estimates From the National Health Interview Survey, January 2007-June 2010,” National Health Statistics Reports 39. Center for Disease Control.
   Google Scholar
• Borenstein, M., Hedges, L.V., Higgins, J. P.T., Rothstein, H.R. (2009), Introduction to Meta-Analysis, Chichester, West Sussex, UK: Wiley.
   Google Scholar
• DerSimonian, R., Laird, N. (1986), Meta-Analysis in Clinical Trials, Control Clinical Trials, 7, 177–188.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Erikson, R.S., Wlezien, C. (1999), Presidential Polls as a Time Series: The Case of 1996, Public Opinion Quarterly, 73, 163–177.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fuller, W.A. (2009), Sampling Statistics, Wiley Series in Survey Methodology, Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
   Google Scholar
• Gallup (2015), How does Gallup Polling Work? Internet, http://www.gallup.com/corporate/177680/gallup.aspx, accessed on February 2, 2015.
   Google Scholar
• Jackman, S. (2005), Pooling the Polls Over an Election Campaign, Australian Journal of Political Science, 40, 499–517.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Keeter, S., Kennedy, C., Dimock, M., Best, J., Craighill, P. (2006), Gauging the Impact of Growing Nonresponse on Estimates from a National RDD Telephone Survey, Public Opinion Quarterly, 70, 759–779.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Linzer, D.A. (2013), Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 108, 124–134.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lusinchi, D. (2012), ‘President’ Landon and the 1936 Literary Digest’ Poll: Were Automobile and Telephone Owners to Blame? Social Science History, 36, 23–54.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marketing Charts (2012), Landline Phone Penetration Dwindles as Cell-Only Households Grow, Internet, http://www.marketingcharts.com/traditional/landline-phone-penetration-dwindles-as-cell-only-households-grow-22577/, accessed on February 2, 2015.
   Google Scholar
• Mokrzycki, M., Keeter, S., Kennedy, C. (2009), Cell-Phone-Only Votes in the 2008 Exit Poll and Implications for Future Noncoverage Bias, The Public Opinion Quarterly, 73, 845–865.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pew Research Center (2010a), Cell Phones and Election Polls: An Update, Internet, http://www.pewresearch.org/2010/10/13/cell-phones-and-election-polls-an-update/, accessed on February 2, 2015.
   Google Scholar
• ——— (2010b), The Growing Gap between Landline and Dual Frame Election Polls, Internet, http://www.pewresearch.org/2010/11/22/the-growing-gap-between-landline-and-dual-frame-election-polls/, accessed on February 2, 2015.
   Google Scholar
• Samuelson, R. (2012), Pollsters’ Moment of Truth, Internet, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/10/29/pollsters_moment_of_truth_115945.html, accessed on February 2, 2015.
   Google Scholar
• Scheiber, N. (2012), The Internal Polls That Made Mitt Romney Think He’d Win, Internet, http://www.newrepublic.com/blog/plank/110597/exclusive-the-polls-made-mitt-romney-think-hed-win, accessed on February 2, 2015.
   Google Scholar
• Silver, N. (2012), Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage, Internet, http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/07/election-forecast-obama-begins-with-tenuous-advantage/, accessed on February 2, 2015.
   Google Scholar
• ——— (2014a), How FiveThirtyEight Calculates Pollster Ratings, Internet, http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeight-calculates-pollster-ratings/, accessed on February 2, 2015.
   Google Scholar
• ——— (2014b), How The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast Model Works, Internet, http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-model-works/, accessed on February 2, 2015.
   Google Scholar
• Squire, P. (1988), Why the 1936 Literary Digest Poll Failed, The Public Opinion Quarterly, 52, 125–133.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tucker, C., Brick, J.M., Meekins, B. (2007), Household Telephone Service and Usage Patterns in the United States in 2004: Implications for Telephone Samples, The Public Opinion Quarterly, 71, 3–22.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tukey, J.W. (1949), Comparing Individual Means in the Analysis of Variance, Biometrics, 5, 99–114.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Washington Post (2012a), Exit Polls 2012: How the Vote Has Shifted, Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-exit-polls/table.html.
   Google Scholar
• ——— (2012b), Romney Prepared Victory Speech for Election, But Delivered Concession Speech Instead, Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/romney-prepared-victory-speech-for-election-but-delivered-concession-speech-instead/2012/11/07/74dd5b96-28a0-11e2-b4e0-346287b7e56c_story.html.
   Google Scholar
• Wilson, R. (2012), Obama and Romney Teams Top $1 Billion in Ad Spending, National Journal. Available at http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-and-romney-teams-top-1-billion-in-ad-spending-20121102
   Google Scholar