The endogeneity of business cycle synchronisation in SADC: A GMM approach

References

• Alt, J. E., & Lowry, R. C. (1994). Divided government, fiscal institutions, and budget deficits: Evidence from the states. American Political Science Review, 88, 811–828.10.2307/2082709
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Artis, M. J., Fidrmuc, J., & Scharler, J. (2008). The transmission of business cycles: Implications for EMU enlargement. The Economics of Transition, 16, 559–582.10.1111/j.1468-0351.2008.00325.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Artis, M. J., & Zhang, W. (1997). International business cycles and the ERM: Is there a European business cycle? International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2(1), 1–16.10.1002/(ISSN)1099-1158
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Anderson, T. W., & Hsiao, C. (1981). Estimation of dynamic models with error components. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76, 598–606.10.1080/01621459.1981.10477691
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Anderson, T. W., & Hsiao, C. (1982). Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 18, 47–82.10.1016/0304-4076(82)90095-1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Arellano, M. (2003). Panel data econometrics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.10.1093/0199245282.001.0001
   Google Scholar
• Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277–297.10.2307/2297968
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29–51.10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Backus, D. K., & Kehoe, P. J. (1992). International evidence on the historical properties of business cycles. The American Economic Review, 864–888.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Badinger, H. (2009). Fiscal rules, discretionary fiscal policy and macroeconomic stability: An empirical assessment for OECD countries. Applied Economics, 41, 829–847.10.1080/00036840701367556
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Barro, R., & Tenreyro, S. (2007). Economic effects of currency unions. Economic Inquiry, 45(1), 1–23.10.1111/ecin.2007.45.issue-1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baxter, M., & Kouparitsas, M. A. (2005). Determinants of business cycle comovement: A robust analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, 113–157.10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.08.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87, 115–143.10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (2000). GMM estimation with persistent panel data: An application to production functions. Econometric Reviews, 19, 321–340.10.1080/07474930008800475
   Google Scholar
• Brender, A., & Drazen, A. (2005). Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, 1271–1295.10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.04.004
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Calderón, C., Chong, A., & Stein, E. (2007). Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different? Journal of International Economics, 71, 2–21.10.1016/j.jinteco.2006.06.001
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Carmignani, F., & Laurenceson, J. S. (2013). Provincial business cycles and fiscal policy in China. Economics of Transition, 21, 323–340.10.1111/ecot.2013.21.issue-2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cerqueira, P. A., & Martins, R. (2009). Measuring the determinants of business cycle synchronization using a panel approach. Economics Letters, 102, 106–108.10.1016/j.econlet.2008.11.016
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Clark, T. E., & van Wincoop, E. (2001). Borders and business cycles. Journal of International Economics, 55, 59–85.10.1016/S0022-1996(01)00095-2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Crosby, M. (2003). Business cycle correlations in Asia-Pacific. Economics Letters, 80, 35–44.10.1016/S0165-1765(03)00042-9
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cunado, J., & Perez de Gracia, F. P. (2005). Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: Evidence for some Asian countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 45, 65–83.10.1016/j.qref.2004.02.003
   Google Scholar
• Darvas, Z., Rose, A.K., & Szapáry, G. (2005). Fiscal divergence and business cycle synchronization: Irresponsibility is idiosyncratic (No. w11580). Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research.
   Google Scholar
• de Haan, J., Inklaar, R., & Jong-A-Pin, R. (2008). Will business cycles in the euro area converge? A critical survey of empirical research. Journal of Economic Surveys, 22, 234–273.10.1111/j.1467-6419.2007.00529.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dellas, H. (1986). A real model of the world business cycle. Journal of International Money and Finance, 5, 381–394.10.1016/0261-5606(86)90036-7
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Di Giovanni, J., & Levchenko, A. A. (2010). Putting the parts together: Trade, vertical linkages, and business cycle comovement. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2, 95–124.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Faia, E. (2007). Finance and international business cycles. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54, 1018–1034.10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.04.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fatás, A. (1997). EMU: Countries or regions? Lessons from the EMS experience. European Economic Review, 41, 743–751.10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00033-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fatas, A., & Mihov, I. (2003). On constraining fiscal policy discretion in EMU. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 19, 112–131.10.1093/oxrep/19.1.112
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Flandreau, M., & Maurel, M. (2005). monetary union, trade integration, and business cycles in 19th century Europe. Open Economies Review, 16, 135–152.10.1007/s11079-005-5872-4
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Frankel, J. A., & Rose, A. K. (1997). Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante? European Economic Review, 41, 753–760.10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00034-2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Frankel, J. A., & Rose, A. K. (1998). The endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria. The Economic Journal, 108, 1009–1025.10.1111/ecoj.1998.108.issue-449
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Furceri, D., & Karras, G. (2008). Business-cycle synchronization in the EMU. Applied Economics, 40, 1491–1501.10.1080/00036840600843954
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gavin, M., & Perotti, R. (1997). Fiscal policy in Latin America. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 12, 11–61.10.1086/654320
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gouveia, S., & Correia, L. (2013). Trade integration and business cycle synchronization in the Euro area: The case of southern European countries. Journal of Economic Integration, 85–107.10.11130/jei.2013.28.1.85
   Google Scholar
• Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since world War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228–248.10.1086/261140
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hansen, L. P. (1982). Large sample properties of generalized method of moments estimators. Econometrica, 1029–1054.10.2307/1912775
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hansen, L. P., & Singleton, K. J. (1982). Generalized instrumental variables estimation of nonlinear rational expectations models. Econometrica, 1269–1286.10.2307/1911873
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Heathcote, J., & Perri, F. (2004). Financial globalization and real regionalization. Journal of Economic Theory, 119, 207–243.10.1016/j.jet.2003.06.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Holtz-Eakin, D., Newey, W., & Rosen, H. S. (1988). Estimating vector autoregressions with panel data. Econometrica, 1371–1395.10.2307/1913103
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hsiao, C. (2003). Analysis of panel data. Econometric Society Monographs (Vol. 34). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Hsiao, C. (2005). Why panel data? The Singapore Economic Review, 50, 143–154.10.1142/S0217590805001937
   Google Scholar
• Garcia-Herrero, A., & Ruiz, J. M. (2008). Do trade and financial linkages foster business cycle synchronization in a small economy? Documentos de trabajo del Banco de España, 10, 5–40.
   Google Scholar
• Imbs, J. (2004). Trade, finance, specialization, and synchronization. Review of Economics and Statistics, 86, 723–734.10.1162/0034653041811707
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Imbs, J. (2006). The real effects of financial integration. Journal of International Economics, 68, 296–324.10.1016/j.jinteco.2005.05.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jansen, W. J., & Stokman, A. C. (2004). Foreign direct investment and international business cycle co-movement (Working Paper Series No. 401). Frankfurt: European Central Bank.
   Google Scholar
• Jiménez-Rodríguez, R., & Sánchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: Empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied Economics, 37, 201–228.10.1080/0003684042000281561
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kabundi, A., & Loots, E. (2007). Co-movement between South Africa and the Southern African development community: An empirical analysis. Economic Modelling, 24, 737–748.10.1016/j.econmod.2007.02.001
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kalemli-Ozcan, S., Papaioannou, E., & Peydró, J. S. (2009). Financial integration and business cycle synchronization (Working Paper No. 14887). Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/papers/w14887
   Google Scholar
• Kalemli-Ozcan, S., Sørensen, B. E., & Yosha, O. (2001). Economic integration, industrial specialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations. Journal of International Economics, 55, 107–137.10.1016/S0022-1996(01)00097-6
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kalemli-Ozcan, S., Sørensen, B. E., & Yosha, O. (2003). Risk sharing and industrial specialization: Regional and international evidence. American Economic Review, 93, 903–918.10.1257/000282803322157151
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kenen, P. (1969). The theory of optimum currency areas: An eclectic view. In R. Mundell & A. Swoboda (Eds.), Monetary problems in the international economy (pp. 41–60). Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
   Google Scholar
• Kose, M. A., Otrok, C., & Whiteman, C. H. (2008). Understanding the evolution of world business cycles. Journal of International Economics, 75, 110–130.10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.10.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kose, M. A., Prasad, E. S., & Terrones, M. E. (2003). Financial integration and macroeconomic volatility. IMF Economic Review, 50, 119–142.
   Google Scholar
• Krugman, P., & Venables, A. (1993). Integration, specialization, and the adjustment (No. w4559). Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research.10.3386/w4559
   Google Scholar
• Kutu, A. A., & Ngalawa, H. (2016). Monetary policy shocks and industrial output in Brics countries. SPOUDAI-Journal of Economics and Business, 66, 3–24.
   Google Scholar
• Lane, P. R. (2003). The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: Evidence from the OECD. Journal of Public Economics, 87, 2661–2675.10.1016/S0047-2727(02)00075-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lardic, S., & Mignon, V. (2008). Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach. Energy Economics, 30, 847–855.10.1016/j.eneco.2006.10.010
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lee, G. H., & Azali, M. (2010). The endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria in East Asia. Economic Modelling, 27, 165–170.10.1016/j.econmod.2009.08.004
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Levinson, A. (1998). Balanced budgets and business cycles: Evidence from the states. National Tax Journal, 715–732.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mairesse, J., & Hall, B. H. (1996). Estimating the productivity of research and development in French and United States manufacturing firms: An exploration of simultaneity issues with GMM methods. Contributions to Economic Analysis, 233, 285–315.
   Google Scholar
• Moneta, F., & Rüffer, R. (2009). Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia. Journal of Asian Economics, 20(1), 1–12.10.1016/j.asieco.2008.08.001
   Google Scholar
• Nickell, S. (1981). Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. Econometrica, 1417–1426.10.2307/1911408
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nzimande, N., & Msomi, S. (2016). Oil price shocks and economic activity: The asymmetric cointegration approach in South Africa. Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences, 9, 685–695.
   Google Scholar
• Nzimande, N. P., & Ngalawa, H. (2016). Is there a SADC business cycle? Evidence from a dynamic factor model (No. 651). Cape Town: Economic Research of Southern Africa.
   Google Scholar
• Obstfeld, M. (1994). Evaluating risky consumption paths: The role of intertemporal substitutability. European Economic Review, 38, 1471–1486.10.1016/0014-2921(94)90020-5
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Otto, G., Voss, G. M., & Willard, L. (2001). Understanding OECD output correlations. Sydney: Reserve Bank of Australia.
   Google Scholar
• Rodden, J., & Wibbels, E. (2010). Fiscal decentralization and the business cycle: An empirical study of seven federations. Economics & Politics, 22, 37–67.10.1111/ecpo.2010.22.issue-1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rose, A. K., & Engel, C. (2000). Currency unions and international integration (No. w7872). Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research.10.3386/w7872
   Google Scholar
• Rose, A. K., & van Wincoop, E. (2001). National money as a barrier to international trade: The real case for currency union. American Economic Review, 91, 386–390.10.1257/aer.91.2.386
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schiavo, S. (2008). Financial integration, GDP correlation and the endogeneity of optimum currency areas. Economica, 75, 168–189.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Spahn, H. P. (1997). Credibility, reputation, and the instability of the EMS. In A. J., Cohen, H., Hagemann, & J., Smithin (Eds.), Money, financial institutions and macroeconomics. Recent economic thought series (Vol. 53. Dordrecht: Springer. doi:10.1007/978-94-011-5362-1_16
   Google Scholar
• Tipoy, C. K. (2015). Real convergence using TAR panel unit root tests: An application to Southern African Development Community (No. 536). Cape Town: Economic Research of Southern Africa.
   Google Scholar
• Vieira, C., & Vieira, I. (2012). Assessing the endogeneity of OCA conditions in EMU. The Manchester School, 80, 77–91.10.1111/manc.2012.80.issue-s1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zerihun, M. F., Breitenbach, M. C., & Kemegue, F. (2014). A Greek wedding in SADC? Testing for structural symmetry towards SADC monetary integration. African Finance Journal, 16, 16–33.
   Google Scholar