The closer, the better – How perceived ideological proximity between parties affects the emergence of coalition preferences

Bibliography

• Adams, J., L. Ezrow, and Z. Somer-Topcu. 2011. “Is Anybody Listening? Evidence That Voters Do Not Respond to European Parties’ Policy Statements During Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 55 (2): 370–382. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00489.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Adams, J., S. Weschle, and C. Wlezien. 2021. “Elite Interactions and Voters’ Perceptions of Parties’ Policy Positions.” American Journal of Political Science 65 (1): 101–114. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12510.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• American Political Science Association. 1950. “Towards a More Responsible Two-Party System.” American Political Science Review 22: 475–510.
   Google Scholar
• Armstrong, D. A., and R. M. Duch. 2010. “Why Can Voters Anticipate Post-Election Coalition Formation Likelihoods?” Electoral Studies 29 (3): 308–315. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2010.03.007.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Backlund, A. 2023. “Government Formation and the Radical Right: A Swedish Exception?” Government and Opposition 58 (4): 882–898. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2022.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bahnsen, O., T. Gschwend, and L. F. Stoetzer. 2020. “How do Coalition Signals Shape Voting Behavior? Revealing the Mediating Role of Coalition Expectations.” Electoral Studies 66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102166.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Banducci, S., H. Giebler, and S. Kritzinger. 2017. “Knowing More from Less: How the Information Environment Increases Knowledge of Party Positions.” British Journal of Political Science 47 (3): 571–588. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123415000204.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bargsted, M. A., and O. Kedar. 2009. “Coalition-targeted Duvergerian Voting: How Expectations Affect Voter Choice Under Proportional Representation.” American Journal of Political Science 53 (2): 307–323. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00372.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Blais, A., E. Guntermann, and M. A. Bodet. 2017. “Linking Party Preferences and the Composition of Government: A New Standard for Evaluating the Performance of Electoral Democracy.” Political Science Research and Methods 5 (2): 315–331. https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2015.78.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bowler, S., T. Gschwend, and I. H. Indridason. 2020. “Coalition Policy Perceptions.” The Journal of Politics 82 (4): 1458–1473. https://doi.org/10.1086/708629.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bowler, S., G. McElroy, and S. Müller. 2022. “Voter Expectations of Government Formation in Coalition Systems: The Importance of the Information Context.” European Journal of Political Research 61 (1): 111–133. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12441.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bräuninger, T., and M. Debus. 2008. “Der Einfluss von Koalitionsaussagen, programmatischen Standpunkten und der Bundespolitik auf die Regierungsbildung in den deutschen Ländern.” Politische Vierteljahresschrift 49 (2): 309–338. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-008-0101-6.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dalton, R. J. 2008. Citizen Politics in Western Democracies. Public Opinion and Political Parties in Advanced Industrial Democracies. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
   Google Scholar
• Dalton, R. J. 2018. Political Realignment: Economics, Culture, Electoral Realignment. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Dassonneville, R., L. Hooghe, and G. Marks. 2023. “Transformation of the Political Space: A Citizens’ Perspective.” European Journal of Political Research, https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12590.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Debus, M. 2022. “Parteienwettbewerb und Wahrscheinlichkeit Verschiedener Koalitionsoptionen bei der Bundestagswahl 2021.” Politische Vierteljahresschrift 63 (1): 73–88. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-021-00361-8.
   Google Scholar
• Debus, M., and J. Müller. 2013. “Do Voters‘ Coalition Preferences Affect Government Formation?” West European Politics 36 (5): 1007–1028. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2013.796186.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Debus, M., and J. Müller. 2014. “Expected Utility or Learned Familiarity? The Formation of Voters’ Coalition Preferences.” Electoral Studies 34 (1): 54–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.09.007.
   Google Scholar
• Downs, A. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper.
   Google Scholar
• Ecker, A., and T. M. Meyer. 2015. “The Duration of Government Formation Processes in Europe.” Research & Politics 2 (4): 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168015622796.
   Google Scholar
• Faas, T., and T. Klingelhöfer. 2022. “German Politics at the Traffic Light: New Beginnings in the Election of 2021.” West European Politics 45 (7): 1506–1521. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2022.2045783.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Falcó-Gimeno, A. 2012. “Preferences for Political Coalitions in Spain.” South European Society and Politics 17 (3): 487–502. https://doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2012.701900.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Falcó-Gimeno, A., and P. Fernandez-Vazquez. 2020. “Choices That Matter: Coalition Formation and Parties’ Ideological Reputations.” Political Science Research and Methods 8 (2): 285–300. https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2018.63.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fortunato, D. 2021. The Cycle of Coalition. How Parties and Voters Interact Under Coalition Governance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Fortunato, D., N. C. N. Lin, R. T. Stevenson, and M. W. Tromborg. 2021. “Attributing Policy Influence Under Coalition Governance.” American Political Science Review 115 (1): 252–268. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055420000763.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fortunato, D., and R. T. Stevenson. 2013. “Perceptions of Partisan Ideologies: The Effect of Coalition Participation.” American Journal of Political Science 57 (2): 459–477. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00623.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Franklin, M., and T. T. Mackie. 1983. “Familiarity and Inertia in the Formation of Governing Coalitions in Parliamentary Democracies.” British Journal of Political Science 13 (3): 275–298. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123400003276.
   Google Scholar
• Franzmann, S. T., H. Giebler, and T. Poguntke. 2020. “It’s No Longer the Economy, Stupid! Issue Yield at the 2017 German Federal Election.” West European Politics 43 (3): 610–638. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2019.1655963.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Green-Pedersen, C. 2019. The Reshaping of West European Party Politics: Agenda-Setting and Party Competition in Comparative Perspective. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Gross, M., M. Jankowski, C.-M. Juen, and F. Erlbruch. 2023a. “Do Voters Want Their Parties to be Office- or Policy-Seekers in Coalition Negotiations.” West European Politics. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2023.2208953.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gross, M., J. Müller, C. Stecker, and M. Debus. 2023b. “Navigating Complexity: Exploring the Changing Dynamics of Coalition Avoidance in Germany, 1946–2023.” Regional & Federal Studies. https://doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2023.2268532.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gschwend, T., and M. Hooghe. 2008. “Should I Stay or Should I go? An Experimental Study on Voter Responses to Pre-Electoral Coalitions.” European Journal of Political Research 47 (5): 556–577. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2008.00787.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gschwend, T., M. F. Meffert, and L. F. Stoetzer. 2017. “Weighting Parties and Coalitions: How Coalition Signals Influence Voting Behavior.” The Journal of Politics 79 (2): 642–655. https://doi.org/10.1086/688678.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Harsgor, L., R. Itzkovitch-Malka, and O. Tuttnauer. 2023. “Do Coalition and Formateur Expectations Affect Vote Switching?” European Political Science Review 15 (1): 96–115. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755773922000455.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hinich, M. J., and M. Munger. 1997. Analytical Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Huber, S. 2014. “Coalitions and Voting Behavior in a Differentiating Multiparty System.” In In Voters on the Move or on the Run?, edited by B. Weßels, H. Rattinger, S. Roßteutscher, and R. Schmitt-Beck, 65–87. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Huber, S., and R. Welz. 2022. “Dynamics of Coalition Preferences and Vote Choices.” In The Changing German Voter, edited by R. Schmitt-Beck, S. Roßteutscher, H. Schoen, B. Weßels, and C. Wolf, 183–206. Oxoford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Jolly, S., R. Bakker, L. Hooghe, G. Marks, J. Polk, J. Rovny, M. Steenbergen, and M. A. Vachudova. 2022. “Chapel Hill Expert Survey Trend File, 1999-2019.” Electoral Studies. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102420.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kriesi, H., E. Grande, R. Lachat, M. Dolezal, S. Bornschier, and T. Frey. 2006. “Globalization and the Transformation of the National Political Space: Six European Countries Compared.” European Journal of Political Research 45 (6): 921–956. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2006.00644.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Laver, M., and K. Benoit. 2015. “The Basic Arithmetic of Legislative Decisions.” American Journal of Political Science 59 (2): 275–291. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12111.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marks, G., L. Hooghe, M. Nelson, and E. Edwards. 2006. “Party Competition and European Integration in the East and West: Different Structure, Same Causality.” Comparative Political Studies 39 (2): 155–175. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414005281932.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Martin, L. W., and R. T. Stevenson. 2001. “Government Formation in Parliamentary Democracies.” American Journal of Political Science 45 (1): 33–50. https://doi.org/10.2307/2669358.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Martin, L. W., and R. T. Stevenson. 2010. “The Conditional Impact of Incumbency on Government Formation.” American Political Science Review 104 (3): 503–518. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055410000213.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Martin, L. W., and G. Vanberg. 2008. “Coalition Government and Political Communication.” Political Research Quarterly 61 (3): 502–516. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912907308348.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meffert, M. F., and T. Gschwend. 2010. “Strategic Coalition Voting: Evidence from Austria.” Electoral Studies 29 (3): 339–349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2010.03.005.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meffert, M. F., and T. Gschwend. 2011. “Polls, Coalition Signals and Strategic Voting: An Experimental Investigation of Perceptions and Effects.” European Journal of Political Research 50 (5): 636–667. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2010.01986.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meffert, M. F., S. Huber, T. Gschwend, and F. U. Pappi. 2011. “More Than Wishful Thinking: Causes and Consequences of Voters’ Electoral Expectations About Parties and Coalitions.” Electoral Studies 30 (4): 804–815. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2011.08.001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meyer, T. M., and D. Strobl. 2016. “Voter Perceptions of Coalition Policy Positions in Multiparty Systems.” Electoral Studies 41: 80–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.020.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Norris, P., and R. Inglehart. 2019. Cultural Backlash. Trump, Brexit, and Authoritarian Populism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Nyhuis, D., and C. Plescia. 2018. “The Nonideological Component of Coalition Preferences.” Party Politics 24 (6): 686–697. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068817690933.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Plescia, C., and J. Aichholzer. 2017. “On the Nature of Voters’ Coalition Preferences.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 27 (3): 254–273. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2016.1270286.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rovny, J., and J. Polk. 2019. “New Wine in old Bottles: Explaining the Dimensional Structure of European Party Systems.” Party Politics 25 (1): 12–24. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068817752518.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Saalfeld, T. 2008. “Institutions, Chance and Choices: The Dynamics of Cabinet Survival.” In Cabinets and Coalition Bargaining: The Democratic Life Cycle in Western Europe, edited by K. Strøm, W. C. Müller, and T. Bergman, 327–368. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Sartori, G. 1976. Parties and Party Systems: A Framework for Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Schultze, M. 2014. “Effects of Voting Advice Applications (VAas) on Political Knowledge About Party Positions: Effects of VAAs on Political Knowledge About Party Positions.” Policy & Internet 6 (1): 46–68. https://doi.org/10.1002/1944-2866.POI352.
   Google Scholar
• Spoon, J., and H. Klüver. 2019. “Party Convergence and Vote Switching: Explaining Mainstream Party Decline Across Europe.” European Journal of Political Research 58 (4): 1021–1042. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12331.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Steiner, N. D. 2023. “The Shifting Issue Content of Left–Right Identification: Cohort Differences in Western Europe.” West European Politics, https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2023.2214875.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stoetzer, L. F., and S. Zittlau. 2020. “Vote Choice and the Nonseparability of Economic and Social Issues.” Public Opinion Quarterly 84 (1): 158–170. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfaa005.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stokes, D. E. 1963. “Spatial Models of Party Competition.” American Political Science Review 57 (2): 368–377. https://doi.org/10.2307/1952828.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Strøm, K., and W. C. Müller. 1999. “The Keys to Togetherness: Coalition Agreements in Parliamentary Democracies.” The Journal of Legislative Studies 5 (3-4): 255–282. https://doi.org/10.1080/13572339908420604.
   Google Scholar
• Switek, N. 2010. “Neue Regierungsbündnisse braucht das Land!.” Zeitschrift für Politikberatung 2 (3): 177–196. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12392-010-0254-8.
   Google Scholar
• Thomson, R. 2001. “The Programme to Policy Linkage: The Fulfilment of Election Pledges on Socio-Economic Policy in the Netherlands, 1986-1998.” European Journal of Political Research 40 (2): 171–197.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thomson, R., R. Royed, E. Naurin, J. Artés, R. Costello, L. Ennser-Jedenastik, M. Ferguson, et al. 2017. “The Fulfillment of Parties’ Election Pledges: A Comparative Study on the Impact of Power Sharing.” American Journal of Political Science 61 (3): 527–542. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12313.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tsebelis, G. 2002. Veto players: How political institutions work. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Welz, R. 2023. “At Least Agree on the Important Things: The Impact of Issue Distance, Intracoalition Heterogeneity, and Salience on Voters’ Coalition Preferences.” Politische Vierteljahresschrift 64 (1): 19–49. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-022-00415-5.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wurthmann, L. C. 2022. “Black-Blue or Bahamas? Explaining Attitudes Among CDU, CSU, FDP and AfD Voters Towards a Common Governmental Coalition Before the 2017 German Federal Election.” German Politics, https://doi.org/10.1080/09644008.2022.2056593.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wurthmann, L. C., S. Marschall, and M. Billen. 2019. “„Regierungsoptionen zwischen Bürgerwille und Issue-Nähe–Eine Analyse von Koalitionspräferenzen vor der Bundestagswahl 2017.” In Die Bundestagswahl 2017: Analysen der Wahl-, Parteien-, Kommunikations- und Regierungsforschung, edited by K. Korte, and J. Schoofs, 293–321. Wiesbaden: Springer VS.
   Google Scholar