Last place aversion, labour market competition or welfare state model? Explaining anti-immigrant sentiment in Hungary with a conjoint experiment

References

• Aleksynska, M. 2011. “Relative Deprivation, Relative Satisfaction, and Attitudes Towards Immigrants: Evidence from Ukraine.” Economic Systems 35 (2): 189–207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2010.06.002.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alesina, A., A. Miano, and S. Stantcheva. 2022. “Immigration and Redistribution.” The Review of Economic Studies 90 (1): 1–39. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac011.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bansak, K., J. Hainmueller, and D. Hangartner. 2016. “How Economic, Humanitarian, and Religious Concerns Shape European Attitudes Toward Asylum Seekers.” Science (New York, NY) 354 (6309): 217–222. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aag2147.
   Google Scholar
• Bansak, K., J. Hainmueller, D. J. Hopkins, and T. Yamamoto. 2021a. “Beyond the Breaking Point? Survey Satisfying in Conjoint Experiments.” Political Science Research and Methods 9 (1): 53–71. https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2019.13.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bansak, K., J. Hainmueller, D. J. Hopkins, and T. Yamamoto. 2021b. “Advances in Experimental Political Science.” In Conjoint Survey Experiments, edited by J. N. Druckman and D. P. Green, 19–41. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Borjas, G. J. 2003. “The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (4): 1335–1374. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355303322552810.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Buell, R. W. 2021. “Last-Place Aversion in Queues.” Management Science 67 (3): 1430–1452. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3619.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Christensen, H. S., T. Järvi, M. Mattila, and Å. von Schoultz. 2021. “How Voters Choose One Out of Many: A Conjoint Analysis of the Effects of Endorsements on Candidate Choice.” Political Research Exchange 3 (1): 1892456. https://doi.org/10.1080/2474736X.2021.1892456.
   Google Scholar
• Cowan, G., L. Martinez, and S. Mendiola. 1997. “Predictors of Attitudes Toward Illegal Latino Immigrants.” Hispanic Journal of Behavioral Sciences 19 (4): 403–415. https://doi.org/10.1177/07399863970194001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Czymara, C. S. 2020. “Propagated Preferences? Political Elite Discourses and Europeans' Openness Toward Muslim Immigrants.” International Migration Review 54 (4): 1212–1237. https://doi.org/10.1177/0197918319890270.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dancygier, R. M., and M. J. Donnelly. 2013. “Sectoral Economies, Economic Contexts, and Attitudes Toward Immigration.” The Journal of Politics 75 (1): 17–35. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381612000849.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• De Coninck, D. 2023. “The Refugee Paradox During Wartime in Europe: How Ukrainian and Afghan Refugees Are (Not) Alike.” International Migration Review 57 (2): 578–586. https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183221116874.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• de la Cuesta, B., N. Egami, and K. Imai. 2022. “Improving the External Validity of Conjoint Analysis: The Essential Role of Profile Distribution.” Political Analysis 30 (1): 19–45. https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2020.40.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Edo, A. 2019. “The Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market.” Journal of Economic Surveys 33 (3): 922–948. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.2019.33.issue-3.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Esses, V. M., L. M. Jackson, and T. L. Armstrong. 1998. “Intergroup Competition and Attitudes Toward Immigrants and Immigration: An Instrumental Model of Group Conflict.” Journal of Social Issues 54 (4): 699–724. https://doi.org/10.1111/josi.1998.54.issue-4.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Facchini, G., and A. Maria Mayda. 2009. “Does the Welfare State Affect Individual Attitudes Toward Immigrants? Evidence Across Countries.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 91 (2): 295–314. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.91.2.295.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Facchini, G., and A. Maria Mayda. 2012. “Individual Attitudes Towards Skilled Migration: An Empirical Analysis Across Countries.” The World Economy 35 (2): 183–196. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.2012.35.issue-2.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Findor, A., M. Hruška, P. Jankovská, and M. Pobudová. 2022. “Who Should Be Given an Opportunity to Live in Slovakia? A Conjoint Experiment on Immigration Preferences.” Journal of Immigrant & Refugee Studies 20 (1): 79–93. https://doi.org/10.1080/15562948.2021.1902597.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fitzgerald, J., K. A. Curtis, and C. L. Corliss. 2012. “Anxious Publics: Worries About Crime and Immigration.” Comparative Political Studies 45 (4): 477–506. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414011421768.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gidron, N., and P. A. Hall. 2017. “The Politics of Social Status: Economic and Cultural Roots of the Populist Right.” The British Journal of Sociology 68 (S1): S57–S84. https://doi.org/10.1111/bjos.2017.68.issue-S1.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Goździak, E. M., and P. Márton. 2018. “Where the Wild Things Are: Fear of Islam and the Anti-Refugee Rhetoric in Hungary and in Poland.” Central and Eastern European Migration Review7:125–151.
   Google Scholar
• Hainmueller, J., and M. J. Hiscox. 2010. “Attitudes Toward Highly Skilled and Low-Skilled Immigration: Evidence from a Survey Experiment.” American Political Science Review 104 (1): 61–84. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055409990372.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hainmueller, J., M. J. Hiscox, and Y. Margalit. 2015. “Do Concerns About Labor Market Competition Shape Attitudes Toward Immigration? New Evidence.” Journal of International Economics 97 (1): 193–207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.12.010.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hainmueller, J., and D. J. Hopkins. 2015. “The Hidden American Immigration Consensus: A Conjoint Analysis of Attitudes Toward Immigrants.” American Journal of Political Science 59 (3): 529–548. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.2015.59.issue-3.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hainmueller, J., D. J. Hopkins, and T. Yamamoto. 2014. “Causal Inference in Conjoint Analysis: Understanding Multidimensional Choices via Stated Preference Experiments.” Political Analysis 22 (1): 130–141. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpt024.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hanson, G. H., K. Scheve, and M. J. Slaughter. 2007. “Public Finance and Individual Preferences Over Globalization Strategies.” Economics & Politics 19 (1): 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.2007.19.issue-1.
   Google Scholar
• Helbling, M., and H. Kriesi. 2014. “Why Citizens Prefer High-Over Low-Skilled Immigrants. Labor Market Competition, Welfare State, and Deservingness.” European Sociological Review 30 (5): 595–614. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcu061.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hellwig, T., and Y. Kweon. 2016. “Taking Cues on Multidimensional Issues: The Case of Attitudes Toward Immigration.” West European Politics 39 (4): 710–730. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2015.1136491.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hero, R. E., and R. R. Preuhs. 2007. “Immigration and the Evolving American Welfare State: Examining Policies in the U.S. States.” American Journal of Political Science 51 (3): 498–517. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.2007.51.issue-3.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kovarek, D., and G. Dobos. 2023. “Masking the Strangulation of Opposition Parties as Pandemic Response: Austerity Measures Targeting the Local Level in Hungary.” Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society 16 (1): 105–117. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsac044.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kovarek, D., and L. Littvay. 2019. “Where Did All the Environmentalism Go? ‘Politics Can Be Different’ (LMP) in the 2018 Hungarian Parliamentary Elections.” Environmental Politics 28 (3): 574–582. https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2019.1567874.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kovarek, D., D. Róna, B. Hunyadi, and P. Krekó. 2017. “Scapegoat-Based Policy Making in Hungary: Qualitative Evidence for How Jobbik and Its Mayors Govern Municipalities.” Intersections. East European Journal of Society and Politics 3 (3): 63–87.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kovarek, D., and R. Sata. 2021. “By the Sweat of Your Parents' Brow: Self-Sufficiency of Young Adults and Intergenerational Transmission of Values and Resources in Hungary.” In Intergenerational Transmission and Economic Self-Sufficiency, edited by J. Tosun, D. Pauknerová, and B. Kittel, 209–235. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan.
   Google Scholar
• Kriesi, H., A. Altiparmakis, Á. Bojár, and I.-E. Oană. 2024. Coming to Terms with the European Refugee Crisis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Kriesi, H., and A. Vrânceanu. 2023. “Voter Preferences for EU Asylum Policies: The Role of Government Cues.” Government and Opposition 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2023.41.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Krzyzowski, L., and M. Nowicka. 2021. “European Solidarity As Boundary-Making: A Conjoint Analysis of Attitudes Towards Islam in the Context of the ‘Refugee Crisis’.” Journal of Sociology 57 (2): 305–324. https://doi.org/10.1177/1440783320902945.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kuziemko, I., R. W. Buell, T. Reich, and M. I. Norton. 2014. ““Last-Place Aversion”: Evidence and Redistributive Implications.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 129 (1): 105–149. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjt035.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lancaster, C. M. 2022. “Immigration and the Sociocultural Divide in Central and Eastern Europe: Stasis or Evolution?” European Journal of Political Research 61 (2): 544–565. https://doi.org/10.1111/ejpr.v61.2.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Leeper, T. J. 2020. cregg: Simple Conjoint Analyses and Visualization. R package version 0.4.0.
   Google Scholar
• Leeper, T. J., S. B. Hobolt, and J. Tilley. 2020. “Measuring Subgroup Preferences in Conjoint Experiments.” Political Analysis 28 (2): 207–221. https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2019.30.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McFadden, D. 1999. “Rationality for Economists?” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 19 (1–3): 73–105. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007863007855.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meuleman, B., E. Davidov, and J. Billiet. 2009. “Changing Attitudes Toward Immigration in Europe, 2002–2007: A Dynamic Group Conflict Theory Approach.” Social Science Research 38 (2): 352–365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2008.09.006.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moise, A. D., J. Dennison, and H. Kriesi. 2024. “European Attitudes to Refugees After the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.” West European Politics 47 (2): 356–381. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2023.2229688.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Natter, K., M. Czaika, and H. de Haas. 2020. “Political Party Ideology and Immigration Policy Reform: An Empirical Enquiry.” Political Research Exchange 2 (1): 1735255. https://doi.org/10.1080/2474736X.2020.1735255.
   Google Scholar
• Ortega, F., and J. Polavieja. 2012. “Labor-Market Exposure as a Determinant of Attitudes Toward Immigration.” Labour Economics 19 (3): 298–311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2012.02.004.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Poutvaara, P., and M. F. Steinhardt. 2018. “Bitterness in Life and Attitudes Towards Immigration.” European Journal of Political Economy 55 (C): 471–490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.04.007.
   Google Scholar
• Róna, D., E. Galgóczy, J. Pétervári, B. Szeitl, and M. Túry. 2020. “The Fidesz Party's Secret to Success: Investigating Economic Voting in Hungary.” https://21kutatokozpont.hu/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Main_Secret_Fidesz_Success_final-2.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Ruedin, D. 2020. “Do We Need Multiple Questions to Capture Feeling Threatened by Immigrants?” Political Research Exchange 2 (1): 1758576. https://doi.org/10.1080/2474736X.2020.1758576.
   Google Scholar
• Scheve, K. F., and M. J. Slaughter. 2001. “Labor Market Competition and Individual Preferences over Immigration Policy.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 83 (1): 133–145. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465301750160108.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Simonovits, B 2020. “The Public Perception of the Migration Crisis from the Hungarian Point of View: Evidence from the Field.” In Geographies of Asylum in Europe and the Role of European Localities, edited by B. Glorius and J. Doomernik, 155–176. Cham: Springer International Publishing.
   Google Scholar
• Sniderman, P. M., L. Hagendoorn, and M. Prior. 2004. “Predisposing Factors and Situational Triggers: Exclusionary Reactions to Immigrant Minorities.” The American Political Science Review 98 (1): 35–49. https://doi.org/10.1017/S000305540400098X.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Strnad, V. 2022. “Les Enfants Terribles De L'Europe? The ‘Sovereigntist’ Role of the Visegrád Group in the Context of the Migration Crisis.” Europe-Asia Studies 74 (1): 72–100. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2021.1976730.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Valentino, N. A., S. N. Soroka, S. Iyengar, T. Aalberg, R. Duch, M. Fraile, K. S. Hahn, et al. 2019. “Economic and Cultural Drivers of Immigrant Support Worldwide.” British Journal of Political Science49 (4): 1201–1226. https://doi.org/10.1017/S000712341700031X.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Waters, M. C. 1994. “Ethnic and Racial Identities of Second-Generation Black Immigrants in New York City.” International Migration Review 28 (4): 795–820. https://doi.org/10.1177/019791839402800408.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wenzel, M., and M. Zerkowska-Balas. 2019. “Framing Effect of Media Portrayal of Migrants to the European Union: A Survey Experiment in Poland.” East European Politics and Societies 33 (1): 44–65. https://doi.org/10.1177/0888325418777058.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wike, R., and B. J. Grim. 2010. “Western Views Toward Muslims: Evidence from a 2006 Cross-National Survey.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 22 (1): 4–25. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edq002.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wills, T. 1981. “Downward Comparison Principles in Social Psychology.” Psychological Bulletin 90 (2): 245–271. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.90.2.245.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhou, R., and D. Soman. 2003. “Looking Back: Exploring the Psychology of Queuing and the Effect of the Number of People Behind.” Journal of Consumer Research 29 (4): 517–530. https://doi.org/10.1086/346247.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar