Predicting match outcome according to the quality of opponent in the English premier league using situational variables and team performance indicators

References

• Almeida, C. H., Ferreira, A. P., & Volossovitch, A. (2014). Effects of match location, match status and quality of opposition on regaining possession in uefa champions league. Journal of Human Kinetics, 41(1), 203–214.
   Google Scholar
• Armatas, V., Yiannakos, A., Papadopoulou, S., & Skoufas, D. (2009). Evaluation of goals scored in top ranking soccer matches: Greek “super league” 2006–07. Serbian Journal of Sports Sciences, 3(1), 39–43.
   Google Scholar
• Bloomfield, J., Polman, R., & O’donoghue, P. (2005). Effects of score-line on team strategies in fa premier league soccer. Journal of Sports Sciences, 23(2), 192–193.
   Google Scholar
• Carling, C., Williams, A. M., & Reilly, T. (2007). Handbook of soccer match analysis: A systematic approach to improving performance. London, UK: Routledge.
   Google Scholar
• Castellano, J., Álvarez, D., Figueira, B., Coutinho, D., & Sampaio, J. (2013). Identifying the effects from the quality of opposition in a football team positioning strategy. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 13(3), 822–832.
   Google Scholar
• Constantinou, A. C., Fenton, N. E., & Neil, M. (2012). pi-football: A bayesian network model for forecasting association football match outcomes. Knowledge-Based Systems, 36, 322–339.
   Google Scholar
• Crowder, M., Dixon, M., Ledford, A., & Robinson, M. (2002). Dynamic modelling and prediction of english football league matches for betting. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The statistician), 51(2), 157–168.
   Google Scholar
• Dixon, M. J., & Coles, S. G. (1997). Modelling association football scores and inefficiencies in the football betting market. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied statistics), 46(2), 265–280.
   Google Scholar
• Ensum, J., Pollard, R., & Taylor, S. (2005). Applications of logistic regression to shots at goal at association football. In Edited by Thomas Reilly, Jan Cabri & Duarte, Araujo. Science and football v: The proceedings of the fifth world congress on science and football (pp. 214).
   Google Scholar
• García-Rubio, J., Gómez, M. Á., Lago-Peñas, C., & Ibáñez, J. S. (2015). Effect of match venue, scoring first and quality of opposition on match outcome in the uefa champions league. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 15(2), 527–539.
   Google Scholar
• Grant, A., Williams, A., Reilly, T., & Borrie, T. (1999). Analysis of the goals scored in the 1998 world cup. Journal of Sports Sciences, 17(10), 826–827.
   Google Scholar
• Heuer, A., & Rubner, O. (2012). How does the past of a soccer match influence its future? concepts and statistical analysis. PloS One, 7(11), e47678.
   Google Scholar
• Hughes, M. D., & Bartlett, R. M. (2002). The use of performance indicators in performance analysis. Journal of Sports Sciences, 20(10), 739–754.
   Google Scholar
• Hvattum, L. M., & Arntzen, H. (2010). Using elo ratings for match result prediction in association football. International Journal of Forecasting, 26(3), 460–470.
   Google Scholar
• Karlis, D., & Ntzoufras, I. (2003). Analysis of sports data by using bivariate poisson models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The statistician), 52(3), 381–393.
   Google Scholar
• Lago, C. (2009). The influence of match location, quality of opposition, and match status on possession strategies in professional association football. Journal of Sports Sciences, 27(13), 1463–1469.
   Google Scholar
• Lago, C., & Martín, R. (2007). Determinants of possession of the ball in soccer. Journal of Sports Sciences, 25(9), 969–974.
   Google Scholar
• Lago-Peñas, C., Gómez-Ruano, M., Megías-Navarro, D., & Pollard, R. (2016). Home advantage in football: Examining the effect of scoring first on match outcome in the five major european leagues. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 16(2), 411–421.
   Google Scholar
• Lago-Peñas, C., & Lago-Ballesteros, J. (2011). Game location and team quality effects on performance profiles in professional soccer. Journal of Sports Science & Medicine, 10(3), 465.
   Google Scholar
• Lago-Peñas, C., Lago-Ballesteros, J., Dellal, A., & Gómez, M. (2010). Game-related statistics that discriminated winning, drawing and losing teams from the spanish soccer league. Journal of Sports Science & Medicine, 9(2), 288.
   Google Scholar
• Lago-Peñas, C., Lago-Ballesteros, J., & Rey, E. (2011). Differences in performance indicators between winning and losing teams in the uefa champions league. Journal of Human Kinetics, 27, 135–146.
   Google Scholar
• Lee, A. J. (1997). Modeling scores in the premier league: Is manchester united really the best? Chance, 10(1), 15–19.
   Google Scholar
• Liu, H., & Gómez, M.-A. (2014). Relationships between match performance indicators and match outcome in 2014 brazil fifa world cup. In Conference: Viii congreso internacional de la asociacion espanola de ciencias del deporte. spain.
   Google Scholar
• Lucey, P., Bialkowski, A., Monfort, M., Carr, P., & Matthews, I. (2014). quality vs quantity: Improved shot prediction in soccer using strategic features from spatiotemporal data. In Proc. 8th annual mit sloan sports analytics conference (pp. 1–9). Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
   Google Scholar
• Maher, M. J. (1982). Modelling association football scores. Statistica Neerlandica, 36(3), 109–118.
   Google Scholar
• Milborrow, S. (2015). rpart.plot: Plot rpart models. an enhanced version of plot. rpart. R Package Version, 1, 2.
   Google Scholar
• Moura, F. A., Martins, L. E. B., & Cunha, S. A. (2014). Analysis of football game-related statistics using multivariate techniques. Journal of Sports Sciences, 32(20), 1881–1887.
   Google Scholar
• Owen, A. (2016). The decline in home advantage in the english premier league in 2015/16: Is it random fluctuation or a systematic change. STN Journal of Sports Modelling and Trading, 1, 1.
   Google Scholar
• Pereira, T., Ribeiro, J., Grilo, F., & Barreira, D. (2019). Is football players’ performance influenced by the quality of opposition? application of the golden index formula in club atlético de madrid 2016/2017. Motriz: Revista De Educa¸c˜ao Física, 25, 1.
   Google Scholar
• Pledger, M. J., & Morton, R. H. (2010). Home advantage in three national netball competitions: Australia (1997–2007), new zealand (1998–2007) and england (2005/06–2008/09). Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 6, 3.
   Google Scholar
• Pollard, R. (2006). Home advantage in soccer: Variations in its magnitude and a literature review of the inter-related factors associated with its existence. Journal of Sport Behavior, 29(2), 169.
   Google Scholar
• Pratas, J. M., Volossovitch, A., & Carita, A. I. (2016). The effect of performance indicators on the time the first goal is scored in football matches. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 16(1), 347–354.
   Google Scholar
• Razali, N., Mustapha, A., Yatim, F. A., & Ab Aziz, R. (2017). Predicting football matches results using bayesian networks for english premier league (epl). In Iop conference series: Materials science and engineering (Vol. 226, p. 012099). Melaka, Malaysia.
   Google Scholar
• Rotshtein, A. P., Posner, M., & Rakityanskaya, A. (2005). Football predictions based on a fuzzy model with genetic and neural tuning. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis, 41(4), 619–630.
   Google Scholar
• Taylor, B. J., Mellalieu, D. S., James, N., & Barter, P. (2010). Situation variable effects and tactical performance in professional association football. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 10(3), 255–269.
   Google Scholar
• Taylor, J. B., Mellalieu, S. D., James, N., & Shearer, D. A. (2008). The influence of match location, quality of opposition, and match status on technical performance in professional association football. Journal of Sports Sciences, 26(9), 885–895.
   Google Scholar
• Team, R. C. (2017). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
   Google Scholar
• Therneau, T. M., Atkinson, B., & Ripley, M. B. (2010). The rpart package. Oxford, UK.
   Google Scholar
• Thomas, S., Reeves, C., & Davies, S. (2004). An analysis of home advantage in the english football premiership. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 99(3 suppl), 1212–1216.
   Google Scholar