CIA's Kent School: Improving Training for New Analysts

References

• Various newspaper articles including: Bob Drogin, "School for New Brand of Spooks," The Los Angeles Times, 21 July 2000, p. A-I.; Tim Weiner, "U.S. Intelligence Under Fire in Wake of India's Nuclear Test," The New York Times, 13 May 1998; Walter Pincus, "CIA Chief Cited Loss of Agency's Capabilities; Remarks Preceded Indian Bomb Tests," The Washington Post, 25 May 1998, p. A4.
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• Ibid.
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• Ibid, pp. 31-32.
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• Ibid, pp. 28, 30.
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• The inevitability of intelligence failure appears to be a consensus position in the intelligence failure literature and stems from Richard Betts's 1978 article. Richard K. Betts, "Analysis, War and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable," World Politics, Vol. XXXl, No. 1, October 1978, pp. 61-89.
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• That the Kent School dean resides on the DI's corporate board is from CIA's internal "newspaper," What's News at CIA, Issue number 703. Unclassified article: "DDI Establishes Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis. Frans Bax Named Dean." Unknown date.
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• REFERENCES 1 CIA Website, "Tenet Dedicates New School for Intelligence Analysis," CIA Press Release, 4 May 2000. http://www.cia.gov/cia/public_affairs/ press_release/archives/2000/pr050400.html
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• Richards Heuer devotes an entire chapter to this approach entitled "Analysis of Competing Hypotheses," Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, pp. 95-109.
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• Ibid, p. 89.
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• R.V. Jones, Reflections on Intelligence (London: Heineman, 1989), pp. 87-88. The characterization of R.V. Jones is attributed to former DCI James Woolsey at: htlp://www.odd.gov/da/pubHc_affairs/press_release/archives/1997/prl22997.html
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• Jack Davis, "Improving Intelligence Analysis at CIA," p. xvii.
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• The reference to Davis authoring the tradecraft notes is not on the CIA's Website. Instead, the citation was in the foreword of the hardcopy version, which can be found at: http://intellit.muskingum.edu/intellsite/analysis_folder/di_catn_Folder/ foreword.html; Jack Davis, "Improving Intelligence Analysis at CIA," p. xix.
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• For the emphasis in the 1980s on longer papers, see Loch K. Johnson, "Making the Intelligence 'Cycle' Work," International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Vol. 1, No. 4, Winter 1986, pp. 6-7. For the benefits of longer papers, see Arthur S. Hulnick, "Managing Intelligence Analysis: Strategies for Playing the End Game," International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Vol. 2, No. 3, Fall 1988, pp. 322-323; and Loch K. Johnson, "Analysis For a New Age," p. 665. For the backlash against longer papers, see Jay T. Young, "US Intelligence Assessment in a Changing World: The Need for Reform," Intelligence and National Security, Vol. 8, No. 2, April 1993, pp. 129, 134. For the DI's change in the 1990s, see " 'Say It Ain't So, Jim': Impending Reorganization of CIA Looks Like Suppression, Politicizing of Intelligence," Publications of the Center for Security Policy, No. 94-D 74, 15 July 1994. http://www.security-policy.org/papers/1994/94-D74.html. For the backlash against shorter papers, see John Gentry, "A Framework for Reform of the U.S. Intelligence Community."
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• The 'A/B Team' approach stems from 1976 when former DCI George H. W. Bush commissioned a team of outside experts to review the same information that had led to a controversial National Intelligence Estimate on Soviet military spending. This outside "B Team" based its analysis on more pessimistic assumptions of Soviet intentions, interpreted intelligence of Soviet military spending accordingly, and came to a judgment more skeptical than the IC's that was consistent with reigning conservative views. See Robert C. Reich, "Re-examining the Team A-Team B Exercise," International Journal of Intelligence and Counterlntelligence, Vol. 3, No. 3, FaU 1989, pp. 387-388. See also Kevin P. Stack, "A Negative View of Competitive Analysis," International Journal of Intelligence and Counterlntelligence, Vol. 10, No. 4, Winter 1997-1998, pp. 456-464.
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• For greater information on intelligence tradecraft, see: Douglas J. MacEachin, et al., "The Tradecraft of Analysis: Challenge and Change in the CIA," Consortium for the Study of Intelligence, Washington DC, 1994. Also see the DI Analytic Toolkit which contains "excerpt(s) from Notes on Analytic Tradecraft, published between 1995 and 1997, which elaborate on some of the skills and methods used by DI intelligence analysts. These notes become a standard reference within CIA for practitioners and teachers of intelligence analysis." It can be found at: http://www.odci.gov/cia/di/toolkit/index.html
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• Sherman Kent's "Principles for Intelligence Analysis" acquired from informational materials provided by Kent School officers, 14 May 2001. See Appendix for the full text of the document.
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• Bob Drogin, "School for New Brand of Spooks."
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• Ibid.
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