Preface to a Theory of Strategic Intelligence

References

• R. B. Braithwaite, Scientific Explanation: A Study of the Function of Theory, Probability and Law in Science (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1955), cited in Claire Selltiz, Marie Johoda, Morton Deutsch, and Stuart Cook, Research Methods in Social Relations (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1967), p. 480.
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• According to DCI Richard Helms (1966-1973), quoted by Ernest R. May, "Intelligence: Backing into the Future," Foreign Affairs 71 (Summer 1992), p. 66.
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• President George H. W. Bush, remarks, Central Intelligence Agency, Langley, Virginia (12 November 1991). The expression appears earlier in Robert M. Gates, "The CIA and American Foreign Policy," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 66 (Winter 1987-1988), p. 230. Intelligence refers primarily to the collection and assessment of information from a mixture of open and closed sources, intended to help illuminate foreign policy deliberations; but it can refer as well to counter-intelligence and covert action operations designed, respectively, to guard secrets and clandestinely manipulate events in other countries. For a more elaborate discussion of definitions, see Loch K. Johnson, America's Secret Agencies: U.S. Intelligence in a Hostile World (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1996), pp. 12-13; and for an introductory overview of the subject in all of its breadth, see Mark M. Lowenthal, Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1999).
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• On these centrifugal forces, see Loch K. Johnson, Bombs, op. cit.; and Amy Zegart, op. cit. On the origins of the CIA, see Michael Warner, ed., CIA Cold War Records: The CIA under Harry Truman, CIA History Staff, Center for the Study of Intelligence (CIA: Washington, D.C., 1994); and David F. Rudgers, Creating the Secret State: The Origins of the Central Intelligence Agency, 1943-1947 (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 2000).
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• Quoted in the Washington Times, 14 May 1991, p. 3.
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• Interviewed by Jack Davis, "The Challenge of Managing 'Uncertainty': Paul Wolfowitz on Intelligence-Policy Relations"(March 1995): 8 (photocopy provided to the author by Davis).
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• Former DCI Robert M. Gates (1991-1993), who was a senior CIA manager during the Reagan years, has confirmed the tendency of Casey to interfere from time to time in the writing of intelligence reports, particularly on Latin America, "correcting" them to portray a more aggressive view of communist forces in that region of the world [author's interview with Gates, Washington, D.C., 30 January 1992].
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• See the discussion in Loch K. Johnson, America's Secret Agencies, op. cit., pp. 187-193; and "Nomination of Robert M. Gates," Hearings, Select Committee on Intelligence, U.S. Senate, Senate Hearing 102-799, Vol. I-III, 102 Congress 1st Session (1991). In 1995, Vice President Al Gore is said to have angrily rejected conclusive intelligence regarding the personal corruption of his counterpart and professional friend in Russia, Prime Minister Viktor S. Chernomyrdin, sending the analysis back to the Intelligence Directorate with a barnyard epithet scrawled across the cover of the report. See James Risen, "Gore Rejected C.I.A. Evidence of Russian Corruption," The New York Times23 November 1998, p. A8.
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• Alleged Assassination Plots Involving Foreign Leaders: An Interim Report, the Church Committee, ibid., U.S. Senate, Report No. 94-465, 94th Congress, 1st Session (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 20 November 1975), reprinted in Alleged Assassination Plots (New York: Norton, 1976).
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• See the unsigned editorial, "Making the C.I.A. Accountable," The New York Times, 18 August 1996, p. E-14.
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• For Gore's "bloated" remark, see John M. Broder, "Russian Premier Warns U.S. against Role as Policeman," The New York Times, 28 July 1999, p. A8. The $20 billion figure comes from the author's interview with then-DCI R. James Woolsey (1993-1995), Langley, Virginia, 29 September 1999; for the $30 billion figure, see Tim Weiner, "C.I.A. Chief Defends Secrecy, in Spending and Spying, to Senate," The New York Times, 23 February 1996, p. A5.
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• The 80 percent figure is from DCI Alien Dulles (1953-1961), testimony, Hearings, Armed Services Committee, U.S. Senate (25 April 1947), and includes information gathered by diplomats and military attaches [see also, Dulles's discussion of open sources in his The Craft of Intelligence (New York: Harper and Row, 1963)]; the 90 percent figure is from the author's interviews with senior intelligence officials, Washington, D.C. (July-August 1995).
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• John L. Helgerson, Getting to Know the President: CIA Briefings of Presidential Candidates, 1952-1992, Center for the Study of Intelligence (Washington, D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency, no date, but probably published in 1997).
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