Population Estimation Error and Its Impact on 1991–1999 Cancer RatesFootnote*

*The authors would like to thank James Weed, Dean Judson, Ben Hankey, Barnali Das, and the anonymous reviewers for helpful comments and suggestions.

Literature Cited

• Allen , J. P. and Turner , E. 2001 . Bridging 1990 and 2000 census race data: Fractional assignment of multiracial populations . Population Research and Policy Review , 20 (6) : 513 – 33 . 10.1023/A:1015666321798
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Batutis , M. J. 1995 . Subnational estimates of total population by the tax return methodology. Unpublished technical paper , Washington, DC : U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Branch .
   Google Scholar
• Benson , V. and Marano , M. A. 1998 . Current estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, 1995. National Center for Health Statistics . Vital and Health Statistics , 10 (199) : 1 – 428 .
   Google Scholar
• Bhopal , R. and Donaldson , L. 1998 . White, European, Western, Caucasian or what? Inappropriate labeling in research on race, ethnicity and health . American Journal of Public Health , 88 (9) : 1303 – 07 . 9736867
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cancer Letter. 2002 . Faulty estimates led NCI to overstate black-white cancer disparity in Atlanta . Cancer Letter , 28 (34) : 1 – 5 .
   Google Scholar
• Choldin , H. 1994 . Looking for the last percent: The controversy over census undercounts , New Brunswick, NJ : Rutgers University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Clegg , L. X. , Feuer , E. J. , Midthune , D. N. , Fay , M. P. and Hankey , B. F. 2002 . Impact of reporting delay and reporting error on cancer incidence rates and trends . Journal of the National Cancer Institute , 94 (20) : 1537 – 45 . 12381706
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Deming , W. E. and Stephan , F. F. 1940 . On a least squares adjustment of a sampled frequency table when the expected marginal totals are known . Annals of Mathematical Statistics , 11 (4) : 427 – 44 .
   Google Scholar
• Estève , J. , Benhamou , E. and Raymond , L. 1994 . Statistical methods in cancer research. Vol. IV: Descriptive epidemiology , Lyon : International Agency for Research on Cancer .
   Google Scholar
• Fagan , J. T. and Greenberg , B. V. 1985 . Algorithms for making tables additive: Raking, maximum likelihood and minimum chi-square. Statistical Research Report Series RR85/15 , Washington, DC : U.S. Census Bureau .
   Google Scholar
• Fullilove , M. T. 1998 . Abandoning “race” as a variable in public health research—An idea whose time has come . American Journal of Public Health , 88 (9) : 1297 – 98 . 9736864
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gatrell , A. C. and Löytönen , M. , eds. 1998 . GIS and Health , London : Taylor and Francis .
   Google Scholar
• Gelman , A. and Price , P. N. 1999 . All maps of parameter estimates are misleading . Statistics in Medicine , 18 (23) : 3221 – 34 . 10602147
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Georgia Center for Cancer Statistics., 2002, Statistics and Tables for Metropolitan Atlanta SEER 1992–1996. (last accessed 12 December 2002). http://www.sph.emory.edu/GCCS/GCCSdata/index.html
   Google Scholar
• Grieco , E. M. 2002 . An evaluation of bridging methods using race data from Census 2000 . Population Research and Policy Review , 21 (1) : 91 – 107 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hahn , R. A. 1999 . Why race is differentially classified on U.S. birth and infant death certificates: An examination of two hypotheses . Epidemiology , 10 (2) : 108 – 11 . 10069243
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hankey , B. F. , Ries , L. A. and Edwards , B. K. 1999 . The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program: A national resource . Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention , 8 (12) : 1117 – 21 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Holman , R. C. , Curns , A. T. , Kaufman , S. F. , Cheek , J. E. , Pinner , R. W. and Schonberger , L. B. 2001 . Trends in infectious disease hospitalizations among American Indians and Alaska natives . American Journal of Public Health , 91 (3) : 425 – 31 . 11236408
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Howe , H. L. , Wingo , P. A. , Thun , M. J. , Ries , L. A. G. , Rosenberg , H. M. , Feigal , E. G. and Edwards , B. K. 2001 . Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer (1973 to 1998), featuring cancers with recent increasing trends . Journal of the National Cancer Institute , 93 (11) : 824 – 42 . 11390532
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Judson , D. H. , Popoff , C. L. and Batutis , M. J. 2001 . An evaluation of the accuracy of U.S. Census Bureau county population estimates . Statistics in Transition , 5 (2) : 205 – 35 .
   Google Scholar
• Kaufman , J. S. 1999 . How inconsistencies in racial classification demystify the race construct in public health statistics . Epidemiology , 10 (2) : 101 – 03 . 10069240
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kaufman , J. S. and Cooper , R. S. 2001 . Considerations for use of racial/ethnic classification in etiologic research . American Journal of Epidemiology , 154 (4) : 291 – 98 . 11495850
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kirby , R.S. 1996 . Toward congruence between theory and practice in small area analysis and local public health data: Statistics in Medicine . 15 (17) : 1859 – 66 . 8888478
   Google Scholar
• Krieger , N. , Chen , J. T. , Waterman , P. D. , Soobader , M. , Subramanian , S. V. and Carson , R. 2002 . Geocoding and monitoring of U.S. socioeconomic inequalities in mortality and cancer incidence: Does the choice of area-based measure and geographic level matter? . American Journal of Epidemiology , 156 (5) : 471 – 82 . 12196317
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lee , N. C. 2001 . The unequal cancer burden: Efforts of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to bridge the gap through public health . Cancer , 91 (1) : 199 – 204 . 11148579
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Leffall , L. D. 2001 . Foreward . Cancer , 91 (S1) : 189 – 92 . 11148576
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Lunn , D. J. , Simpson , S. N. , Diamond , I. and Middleton , L. 1998 . The accuracy of age-specific population estimates for small areas in Britain . Population Studies , 52 (3) : 327 – 44 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Morello , C. 2001 . Native American roots, once hidden, now embraced . Washington Post , 7 April : A1
   Google Scholar
• National Cancer Insitute. 2002 . Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program Public-Use Data (1973–1999) , Bethesda, MD : National Cancer Institute, DCCPS, Surveillance Research Program, Cancer Statistics Branch . Released April 2002, based on the November 2001 submission
   Google Scholar
• National Cancer Insitute., 2003a, State cancer profiles: Dynamic views of cancer statistics for prioritizing cancer control efforts in the nation, states, and counties. (last accessed 1 June 2003) http://statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov
   Google Scholar
• National Cancer Insitute. 2003b . Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program Public-Use Data (1973–1999) , Bethesda, MD : National Cancer Institute . Released April 2003, based on the November 2002 submission. DCCPS, Surveillance Research Program, Cancer Statistics Branch
   Google Scholar
• National Center for Health Statistics. National Vital Statistics System., 2003, Bridged April 1, 2000, population counts for the four race groups (white, Black or African American, American Indian or Alaska Native, and Asian or Pacific Islander) by county, single year of age (0, 1, 2, …, and 85 years and over), sex, and Hispanic origin (not Hispanic or Latino, Hispanic or Latino). Released 12 January 2003 (last accessed 1 August 2003). http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/about/major/dvs/popbridge/popbridge.htm
   Google Scholar
• Office of Management and Budget., 1997 Revisions to the standards for the classification of federal data on race and ethnicity. Federal Register 62FR58781-58790, 30 October 1997 (last accessed 1 December 2002). http://www.whitehouse.gov/wh/eop/omb/html/fedreg.html
   Google Scholar
• Office of Management and Budget., 2000, Provisional guidance on the implementation of the 1997 standards for the collection of federal data on race and ethnicity. 15 December 2000 (last accessed 1 December 2002). http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg/r&eguidance2000update.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Oppenheimer , G. M. 2001 . Paradigm lost: Race, ethnicity, and the search for a new population taxonomy . American Journal of Public Health , 91 (7) : 1049 – 55 . 11441730
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ouimet , M. 2002 . Explaining the American and Canadian crime “drop” in the 1990s . Canadian Journal of Criminology , 44 (1) : 33 – 50 .
   Google Scholar
• Parker , J. , Schenker , N. , Ingram , D. , Weed , J. , Arias , E. , Hamilton , B. and Madans , J. 2002 . “ A method to bridge multiple-race responses to single-race categories for population denominators of vital event rates ” . In Proceedings of the 12th Federal Forecasters Conference Washington, DC
   Google Scholar
• Parker , J. D. and Makuc , D. M. 2002 . Methodologic implications of allocating multiple-race data to single-race categories . Health Services Research , 37 (1) : 203 – 15 . 11949921
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Robbin , A. 1999 . The problematic status of U.S. statistics on race and ethnicity: An “imperfect representation of reality.” . Journal of Government Information , 26 (5) : 467 – 83 .
   Google Scholar
• Robbin , A. 2000 . The politics of representation in the U.S. national statistical system: Origins of minority population interest group participation . Journal of Government Information , 27 (4) : 431 – 53 .
   Google Scholar
• Robinson , J. G. , West , K. K. and Adlakha , A. 2002 . Coverage of the population in Census 2000: Results from demographic analysis . Population Research and Policy Review , 21 (1–2) : 19 – 38 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sachs , S. 16 March 2001 . City population tops 8 million in census count for first time , 16 March , A1 – B7 . New York Times .
   Google Scholar
• Schein , R. H. 2002 . Race, racism and geography: Introduction . The Professional Geographer , 54 (1) : 1 – 5 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Snell T., 2001, Population boom? Tribal registration up despite sagging national numbers, Cherokee Phoenix and Indian Advocate (last accessed 6 July 2004). http://www.Cherokee.org/Phoenix/XXVno3_summer2001/NewsMakersPage.asp?ID=2
   Google Scholar
• Swanson , D. A. , Kintner , H. J. and McGehee , M. 1995 . Mean square error confidence intervals for measuring uncertainty in intercensal net migration estimates: A case study of Arkansas, 1980–1990 . Journal of Economic and Social Measurement , 21 (2) : 85 – 126 .
   Google Scholar
• Taylor , R. 2001 . Small area population disease burden . Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health , 25 (4) : 289 – 93 . 11529606
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1991 . 1990 Census Summary Tape File 1 (STF1) 100 percent data , Washington, DC : United States Census Bureau .
   Google Scholar
• U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2000, 1990 to 1999 annual time series of county population estimates by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin (last accessed 1 December 2002). http://eire.census.gov/popest/archives/county/co_casrh.php
   Google Scholar
• U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2001, Methodology for estimates of state and county total population (last accessed 27 November 2003) http://eire.census.gov/popest/topics/methodology/states.php
   Google Scholar
• U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2003, Technical summary of A.C.E. Revision II for the Committee on National Statistics (last accessed 1 July 2003). http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/2003/ExecSumm.pdf
   Google Scholar
• University of Virginia. Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. 2002, Revised intercensal population estimates for Virginia counties and cities: 1991–1999 (last accessed 27 September 2002). http://www.ccps.virginia.edu/Demographics/estimates/city-co/Methodology.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Wahlberg , D. 2002 . Black cancer data revised Atlanta figures were too high . Atlanta Journal and Constitution , 27 September : C1
   Google Scholar
• Wakefield , J. and Elliott , P. 1999 . Issues in the statistical analysis of small area health data . Statistics in Medicine , 18 (17–18) : 2377 – 99 . 10474147
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wingo , P. A. , Jamison , P. M. , Hiatt , R. A. , Weir , H. K. , Gargiullo , P. M. , Hutton , M. , Lee , N. C. and Hall , H. I. 2003 . Building the infrastructure for nationwide cancer surveillance and control—A comparison between the National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program (United States) . Cancer Causes and Control , 14 (2) : 175 – 93 . 12749723
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wong , D. W. S. 1992 . The reliability of using the iterative proportional fitting procedure . The Professional Geographer , 44 (3) : 340 – 48 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Word , D. L. 1992 . The Census Bureau approach for allocating internal migration to states, counties and places: 1981–1991 , Washington, DC : U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division . Technical Working Paper 1
   Google Scholar