Recent developments in statistical prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity

References

• Bell, G. D. and Chelliah, M. 2006. Leading tropical modes associated with interannual and multidecadal fluctuations in North Atlantic hurricane activity. J. Climate 19, 590–612.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bell, G. D. et al. 2000. Climate assessment for 1999. Bull. Amer Meteor Soc. 81, S1—S50.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Blake, E. S. 2002. Prediction of August Atlantic basin hurricane activity. Department of Atmospheric Sciences Paper, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80 pp.
   Google Scholar
• Blake, E. S. and Gray, W. M. 2004. Prediction of August Atlantic basin hurricane activity. Wea. Forecast. 19, 1044–1060.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chelliah, M. and Saha, S. 2004. Dynamical forecasts of atmospheric conditions associated with North Atlantic hurricane activity by the Coupled Forecast System at NCEP. 29th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, Madison, WI, NOAA/Climate Prediction Center. Presentation available online at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outreach/proceedings/cdw29_proceedings/chelliah.ppt
   Google Scholar
• Dunn, G. E. 1940. Cyclogenesis in the tropical Atlantic. Bull. Amer Meteor Soc. 21, 215–229.
   Google Scholar
• Elsner, J. B. and Schmertmann, C. P. 1993. Improving extended-range seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane activity. Wea. Forecast. 8, 345–351.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Frank, W. M. and Ritchie, E. A. 2001. Effects of vertical wind shear on the intensity and structure of numerically simulated hurricanes. Mon. Wea. Re v. 129, 2249–2269.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Goldenberg, S. B., Landsea, C. W., Mestas-Nuiiez, A. M. and Gray, W. M. 2001. The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications. Science 293, 474–479.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Goldenberg, S. B. and Shapiro, L. J. 1996. Physical mechanisms for the association of El Nino and West African rainfall with Atlantic major hurricane activity. J. Climate 9, 1169–1187.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gray, W. M. 1968. Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon. Wea. Re v. 96, 669–700.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gray, W. M. 1984a. Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El Nino and 30 mb quasibiennial oscillation influences. Mon. Wea. Re v. 112, 1649–1668.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gray, W. M 1984b. Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part II: Forecasting its variability. Mon. Wea. Re v. 112, 1669–1683.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gray, W. M., Landsea, C. W., Mielke Jr., P. W. and Berry, K. J. 1992. Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity 6-11 months in advance. Wea. Forecast. 7, 440-455.
   Google Scholar
• Gray, W. M., Landsea, C. W., Mielke Jr., P. W. and Berry, K. J. 1998. Forecast of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity for 1998. Department of Atmospheric Science Report, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 18 pp.
   Google Scholar
• Gray, W. M., Sheaffer, J. D. and Landsea, C. W. 1996. Climate trends associated with multi-decadal variability of intense Atlantic hurricane activity. Chapter 2 in “Hurricanes, Climatic Change and Socioeconomic Impacts: A Current Perspective”, (eds H. F., Diaz and R. S., Pulwarty). Westview Press, 49 pp.
   Google Scholar
• Hastenrath, S. 1990. Tropical climate prediction: A progress report, 1985-1990. Bull. Amer. Meteor Soc. 71, 819–825.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hess, J. C. and Elsner, J. B. 1994. Historical developments leading to current forecast models of annual Atlantic hurricane activity. Bull. Amer Meteor. Soc. 75, 1611–1621.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hess, J. C., Elsner, J. B. and LaSeur, N. E. 1995. Improving seasonal hurricane predictions for the Atlantic basin. Wea. Forecast. 10, 425–432.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Huang, J., van den Dool, H. M. and Barnston, A. G. 1996. Long-lead seasonal temperature prediction using optimal climate normals. J. Climate 9, 809–817.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kalnay, E. and co-authors 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Amer Meteor Soc. 77, 437-471.
   Google Scholar
• Kistler, R. and co-authors 2001. The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull. Amer Meteor Soc. 82, 247-267.
   Google Scholar
• Klotzbach, P. J. 2002. Forecasting September Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity at zero and one month lead times. Department of Atmospheric Sciences Paper, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 91 pp.
   Google Scholar
• Klotzbach, P. J. and Gray, W. M. 2003. Forecasting September Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. Wea. Forecast. 18, 1109–1128.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Klotzbach, P. J. and Gray, W. M. 2004. Updated 6-11 month prediction of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity. Wea. Forecast. 19, 917–934.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Knaff, J. A. 1998. Predicting summertime Caribbean pressure in early April. Wea. Forecast. 13, 740–752.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Knaff, J. A. and Landsea, C. W. 1997. An El Nino-Southern Oscillation climatology and persistence (CLIPER) forecasting scheme. Wea. Forecast. 12, 633–652.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Knaff, J. A., Seseske, S. A., DeMaria, M. and Demuth, J. L. 2004. On the influences of vertical wind shear on symmetric tropical cyclone structure derived from AMSU. Mon. Wea. Re v. 132, 2503–2510.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Landsea, C. W., Anderson, C., Charles, N., Clark, G., Dunion, J., and co-authors. 2004. The Atlantic hurricane database re-analysis project: Documentation for the 1851-1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database. In: Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present and Future, (eds R. J., Murnane and K.-B., Liu). Columbia University Press, 177-221.
   Google Scholar
• Latif, M. and co-authors 2004. Reconstructing, monitoring and predicting multidecadal-scale changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation with sea surface temperature. J. Climate 17, 1605–1614.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lea, A. S. and Saunders, M. A. 2006. How well forecast were the 2004 and 2005 Atlantic and US hurricane seasons?. Weather 61, 245–249.
   Google Scholar
• Neumann, C. J., Jarvinen, B. J., McAdie, C. J. and Hammer, G. R. 1999. Tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871-1998. National Climatic Data Center and National Hurricane Center, 206 pp.
   Google Scholar
• Owens, B. E and Landsea, C. W. 2003. Assessing the skill of operational Atlantic seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts. Wea. Forecast. 18, 45–54.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pielke Jr., R. A. and Landsea, C. W. 1999. La Nina, El Nino, and Atlantic hurricane damages in the United States. Bull. Amer Meteor Soc. 80, 2027-2033.
   Google Scholar
• Saha, S., Nadiga, S., Thiaw, C., Wang, J., Wang, W. and co-authors 2006. The NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate 19, 3483-3517.
   Google Scholar
• Saunders, M. A. and Lea, A. S. 2005. Seasonal prediction of hurricane activity reaching the coast of the United States. Nature 434, 1005–1008.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shapiro, L. J. and Goldenberg, S. B. 1998. Atlantic sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone formation. J. Climate 11, 578–590.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Simpson, R. H. 1974. The hurricane disaster potential scale. Weatherwise 27, 169–186.
   Google Scholar
• Vitart, F. and Stockdale, T. N. 2001. Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using coupled GCM integrations. Mon. Wea. Re v. 129, 2521–2537.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar