81
Views
7
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Atlantic basin, U.S. and Caribbean landfall activity rates over the 2006–2010 period: an insurance industry perspective

, &
Pages 499-510 | Received 31 Aug 2006, Accepted 26 Feb 2007, Published online: 15 Dec 2016

References

  • Anthes, R. A., Corell, R. W., Holland, G., Hurrell, J. W., McCracken, M. C. and co-authors. 2006. Hurricanes and global warming potential linkages and consequences. Bull. Amer Meteor Soc. 87, 623-628.
  • Ayyub, B. 2000. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks. CRC Press, New York, pp. 328.
  • Blake, E. S. and Gray, W. M. 2004. Prediction of August Atlantic basin hurricane activity. Wea. Forecast. 19, 1044–1060.
  • Budnitz, R. J., Apostolakis, G., Boore, D. M., Cluft, C. L., Coppersmith, K. J. and co-authors. 1997. Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: guidance on uncertainty and use of experts. NUREG/CR-6372, Volume 1, Washington, DC: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. TIC: 235076
  • Budnitz, R. J., Apostolakis, G., G., Boore, D. M., Cluff, L. S., Coppersmith, K. J. and co-authors. 1998. Use of technical expert panels: applications to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Risk Analysis 18 (4), 463-469.
  • Chan, J. C. L. 2006. Comment on “Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment”. Science 311, 1713b.
  • Chenoweth, M. and Landsea, C. 2004. The San Diego Hurricane of 2 October 1858. Bull. Amer Meteor. Soc. 85, 1689–1697.
  • Clemen, R. T. and Winkler, R. L. 1999. Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis. Risk Analysis 19, 187–203.
  • Cook, R. M. 1991. Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 321.
  • Coppersmith, K. J., Nieman, J. K., Perman, T. R., Youngs, R., Perry, E and co-authors. 2005. Update to the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis, Yucca Mountain, Nevada. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2005, abstract #V31E-07
  • Curry, J. A., Webster, P. J. and Holland, G. J. 2006. Mixing politics and science in testing the hypothesis that greenhouse warming is causing a global increase in hurricane intensity. Bull. Amer Meteor Soc. 87, 1025–1037.
  • Dunion, J. P., Landsea, C. W., Houston, S. H. and Powell, M. D. 2003. A reanalysis of the surface winds for Hurricane Donna of 1960. Mon. Wea. Re v. 131,1992–2011.
  • Elsner, J. B. 2003. Tracking hurricanes. Bull. Amer Meteor. Soc. 84, 353–356.
  • Elsner, J. B. 2006. Evidence in support of the climate change-Atlantic hurricane hypothesis. Geo. Res. Lett. 33, L16705.
  • Elsner, J. B., Niu, X. and Tsonis, A. A. 1998. Multiyear prediction model of North Atlantic hurricane activity. Meteorol, Atmos. Phys. 68,43–51.
  • Elsner, J. B., Jagger, T. and Niu, X. 2000. Changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20th Century. Geo. Res. Lett. 27, 1743–1746.
  • Elsner, J. B. and Bossak, B. H. 2001. Bayesian analysis of U.S. hurricane climate. J. Climate 14,4341–4350.
  • Elsner, J. B. and Jagger, T. H. 2004. A hierarchical Bayesian approach to seasonal hurricane modeling. J. Climate 17, 2813–2827.
  • Elsner, J. B., Tsonis, A. A. and Jagger, T. H. 2006. High frequency variability in hurricane power dissipation and its relationship to global temperature. Bull. Amer. Meteor Soc. 87,763–768.
  • Emanuel, K. 2005a. Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436, 686–688.
  • Emanuel, K. 2005b. Emanuel replies. Nature 438, E13–E13.
  • Goldenberg, S. B., Landsea, C. W., Mestas-Nufiez, A. M. and Gray, W. M. 2001. The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: causes and implications. Science 293,474–479.
  • Grossi, P., Kunreuther, H. and Patel, C. C. 2005. Catastrophe Modeling: A New Approach to Managing Risk. Springer, New York, pp. 245.
  • Hoyos, C. D., Agudelo, P. A., Webster, P. J. and Curry, J. A. 2006. Deconvolution of the factors contributing to the increase in global hurricane intensity. Scienceacpress, doi: 10.1126/science.1123560.
  • Jagger, T. H., Niu, X. and Elsner, J. B. 2002. A space-time model for seasonal hurricane prediction. Int. J. Climatology 22,451–465.
  • Kamahori, H., Yamazaki, N., Mannoji, N. and Takahashi, K. 2006. Variability in intense tropical cyclone days in the western North Pacific. SOLA 2, 104–107, doi: 10.2151/sola.2006-027.
  • Klotzbach, P. J. 2006. Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986-2005). Geophys. Rev. Lett. 33, L10805,1–4.
  • Klotzbach, P. J. and Gray, W. M. 2003. Forecasting September Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone activity. Wea. Forecast. 18, 1109–1128.
  • Klotzbach, P. J. and Gray, W. M. 2004. Updated 6-11-month prediction of Atlantic Basin seasonal hurricane activity. Wea. Forecast. 19,917–934.
  • Landsea, C. W. 2005. Meteorology: hurricanes and global warning. Nature 438, El 1-E12.
  • Landsea C. W., Bell, G. D., Gray, W. M. and Goldenberg, S. B. 1998. The extremely active 1995 Atlantic hurricane season: environmental conditions and verification of seasonal forecasts. Mon. Wea. Re v. 126, 1174–1193.
  • Landsea, C. W., Anderson, C., Charles, N., Clark, G., Dunion, J., Fernandez-Partagas, J., Hungerford, P., Neumann, C. and Zimmer, M. 2004a. The Atlantic hurricane database re-analysis project: Documentation for the 1851-1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database. In: Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present and Future (eds R. J. Mumane and K.-B. Liu). Columbia University Press, New York, 177-221.
  • Landsea, C. W., Franklin, J. L., McAdie, C. J., Beven, J. L. II, Gross, J. M. and co-authors. 2004 b. A reanalysis of hurricane Andrew’s intensity. Bull. Amer. Meteor Soc. 85, 1699–1712.
  • Landsea, C. W., Harper, B. A., Hoaru, K. and Knaff, J. A. 2006. Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones? Science 313, 452–454.
  • Lloyd-Hughes, B., Saunders, M. A. and Rockett, P. 2004. A consolidated CLIPER model for improved August-September ENSO prediction skill. Wea. Forecast. 19, 1089–1105.
  • Mann, M. E. and Emanuel, K. A. 2006. Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. EOS 87, 233,238,241.
  • Owens, B. E and Landsea, C. W. 2003. Assessing the skill of operational atlantic seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts. Wea. Forecast. 18,45–54.
  • Pielke, R. A. and Landsea, C. W. 1999. La Nina, El Nifio, and Atlantic hurricane damages in the United States. Bull. Amer Meteor. Soc. 80, 2027–2033.
  • Pielke, R. A., Jr., Landsea, C. W., Mayfield, M., Laver, J. and Pasch, R. 2005. Hurricanes and global warming. Bull. Amer Meteor Soc. 86, 1571–1575.
  • Pielke, R. A., Jr., Landsea, C. W., Mayfield, M., Laver, J., Pasch, R. 2006. Reply to “Hurricanes and global warming potential linkages and consequences”. Bull. Amer. Meteor Soc. 87, 628-631.
  • Saunders, M. A. and Lea, A. S. 2005. Seasonal prediction of hurricane activity reaching the coast of the United States. Nature 434, 1005–1008.
  • Sriver, R. and Huber, M. 2006. Low frequency variability in globally integrated tropical cyclone power dissipation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L11705.
  • Thomcroft, C. and Pytharoulis, I. 2001. A dynamical approach to seasonal prediction of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Wea. Forecast. 16, 725–735.
  • Trenberth, K. 2005. Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warning. Nature 308, 1753–1754.
  • Trenberth, K. and Shea, D. J. 2006. Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005. Geophys. Rev. Lett. 33, L12704.
  • Velden, C., Harper, B., Wells, E, Beven, J. L. II, Zehr, R. and co-authors. 2006. The Dvorak tropical cyclone intensity estimation technique: a satellite-based method that has endured for over 30 years. Bull. Amer Meteor Soc. 87, 1195-1210.
  • Vitart, E and Stockdale, T. N. 2001. Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using coupled GCM integrations. Mon. Wea. Re v. 129, 2521–2537.
  • Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A. and Chang, H.-R. 2005. Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 309, 1844–1846.
  • WMO WMO200. Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change, Available at http://www.wmo.ch/web/arep/arep-home.html.