262
Views
82
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Interdecadal changes in southern hemisphere winter storm track modes

&
Pages 599-617 | Received 27 Apr 2006, Accepted 04 Jun 2007, Published online: 15 Dec 2016

References

  • Allan, R. J. and Haylock, M. R. 1993. Circulation features associated with the winter rainfall decrease in south-western Australia. J. Climate 6, 1356–1367.
  • Anderson, J. L. 1991. The robustness of barotropic unstable modes in a zonally varying atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sc i. 48, 2393–2410.
  • Arblaster, J. M., Meehl, G. A. and Moore, A. M. 2002. Interdecadal modulation of Australian rainfall. Clim. Dyn. 18, 519–531.
  • Brandefelt, J. and Källen, E. 2004. The response of the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to an enhanced greenhouse gas forcing. J. Climate 17, 4425–4442.
  • Branstator, G. 1985. Analysis of general circulation model sea-surface temperature anomaly simulations using a linear model. Part II: eige-nanalysis. J. Atmos. Sc i. 42, 2241–2254.
  • Branstator, G. and Held, I. 1995. Westward propagating normal modes in the presence of stationary background waves. J. Atmos. Sc i. 44, 247–262.
  • Cai, W., Whetton, P. H. and Karoly, D. J. 2003. The response of the Antarctic Oscillation to increasing and stabilized atmospheric CO2. J. Climate 16, 1525–1538.
  • Danielson, R. E., Gyakum, J. R. and Straub, D. N. 2004. Downstream baroclinic development among forty-one cold-season eastern North Pacific cyclones. Atmos. Ocean 42, 235–250.
  • Drosdowsky, W. 1993. Potential predictability of winter rainfall over southern and eastern Australia using Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature anomalies. AusL Met. Mag. 42, 1–6.
  • Frederiksen, C. S. and Frederiksen, J. S. 1992. Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and teleconnection patterns in primitive equation and quasi-geostrophic models. J. Atmos Sc i. 49, 1443–1458.
  • Frederiksen, C. S. and Frederiksen, J. S. 1996. A theoretical model of northwest cloudband disturbances and southern hemisphere storm tracks: the role of SST anomalies. J. Atmos. Sc i. 53, 1410–1432.
  • Frederiksen, J. S. 1981a. Disturbances and eddy fluxes in Southern Hemisphere flows: linear theory. J. Atmos. Sc i. 38, 673–689.
  • Frederiksen, J. S. 1981b. Growth and vacillation cycles of disturbances in Southern Hemisphere flows. J. Atmos. Sci. 38, 1360-1375.
  • Frederiksen, J. S. 1981c. Scale selection and energy spectra of disturbances in Southern Hemisphere flows. J. Atmos. Sc i. 38, 2573–2584.
  • Frederiksen, J. S. 1982. A unified three-dimensional instability theory of the onset of blocking and cyclogenesis. J. Atmos. Sc i. 39,969–987.
  • Frederiksen, J. S. 1983a. Disturbances and eddy fluxes in Northern hemisphere flows: instability of three-dimensional January and July flows. J. Atmos. Sc i. 40, 836–855.
  • Frederiksen, J. S. 1983b. A unified three-dimensional instability theory of the onset of blocking and cyclogenesis. II: teleconnection patterns. J. Atmos. Sc i. 39, 969–987.
  • Frederiksen, J. S. 1985. The geographical locations of Southern Hemisphere storm tracks: linear theory. J. Atmos. Sc i. 42, 710–723.
  • Frederiksen, J. S. 1992. Towards a unified instability theory of large-scale atmospheric disturbances. Trends Atmos. Sc i. 1, 239–261.
  • Frederiksen, J. S. 2002. Genesis of intraseasonal oscillations and equatorial waves. J. Atmos. Sc i. 59, 2761–2781.
  • Frederiksen, J. S. and Webster, P. J. 1988. Alternative theories of atmospheric teleconnections and low-frequency fluctuations. Rev. Geophys. 26, 459–494.
  • Frederiksen, J. S. and Bell, R. C. 1990. North Atlantic blocking during January 1979: linear theory. Q.J.R. MeteoroL Soc. 116, 1289–1313.
  • Frederiksen, J. S. and Frederiksen, C. S. 1993a. Monsoon disturbances, intraseasonal oscillations, teleconnection patterns, blocking and storm tracks of the global atmosphere during January 1979: linear theory. J. Atmos. Sc i. 50, 1349–1372.
  • Frederiksen, J. S. and Frederiksen, C. S. 1993b. Southern Hemisphere storm tracks, blocking and low-frequency anomalies in a primitive equation model. J. Atmos. Sc i. 50, 3148–3163.
  • Frederiksen, J. S. and Frederiksen, C. S. 1997. Mechanism of the formation of intraseasonal oscillations and Australian monsoon disturbances: the roles of convection, barotropic and baroclinic instability. Contrib. Atmos. Phys. 70, 39–56.
  • Frederiksen, J. S. and Branstator, G. 2001. Seasonal and intraseasonal variability of large-scale barotropic modes. J. Atmos. Sc i. 58, 50–69.
  • Frederiksen, J. S. and Kepert, S. M. 2006. Dynamical subgrid-scale parameterizations from direct numerical simulations. J. Atmos. Sc i. 63, 3006–3019.
  • Fyfe, J. C. 2003. Extratropical Southern Hemisphere cyclones: harbingers of climate change? J. Climate 16, 2802–2805.
  • Fyfe, J. C., Boer, G. J. and Flato, G. M. 1999. The Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations and their projected changes under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 1601–1604.
  • Hall, N. M. and Sardeshmukh, P. D. 1998. Is the time-mean Northern Hemisphere flow baroclinically unstable? J. Atmos. Sc i. 55, 41–56.
  • Hines, K. M., Bromwich, D. H. and Marshall G. J. 2000. Artificial surface pressure trends in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. J. Climate 13, 3940–3952.
  • IOCI IOC 1200. Climate variability and change in south west Western Australia. Indian Ocean Climate Initiative Panel, Department of Environment, Water and Catchment Protection, Perth, W.A., September, 34 pp.
  • Kalnay, E. M., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., and co-authors 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.Bull. Am. MeteoroL Soc. 77, 437-471.
  • Kållberg, P., Simmons, A., Uppala, S. and Fuentes, M. 2004. The ERA-40 Archive. ERA-40 Project Report Series No. 17, ECMWF, 18pp.
  • Kanamitsu, J. 1975. On Numerical Prediction over a Global Tropical Belt. PhD thesis, Dept of Meteor., Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32304,281pp.
  • Kidson, J. W. 1988. Interannual variations in the Southern Hemisphere circulation. J. Climate 1, 1177–1198.
  • Knutson, T. R. and Manabe, S. 1998. Model assessment of decadal variability and trends in the tropical Pacific Ocean. J. Climate 11, 2273–2295.
  • Kuo, H. L. 1974. Further studies of the parameterization of the influence of cumulus convection on large scale flow. J .Atmos. Sc i. 31, 1232–1240.
  • Krishnamurti, T. N., Kanamitsu, M., Godbole, R., Chang, C. B., Can-, E, and co-authors. 1976. Study of a monsoon depression (II), Dynamical structure.J. Meteor Soc. Japan 54, 208-225.
  • Lee, S. 1995. Linear modes and storm tracks in a 2-level primitive equation model. J. Atmos. Sc i. 52, 1841–1862.
  • Leith, C. E. 1975. Climate response and fluctuation dissipation. J. Atmos. Sc i. 32, 2022–2026.
  • Marshall, G. J., Stott, P. A., Turner, J., Turner, W. M., King, J. C. and co-authors. 2004. Causes of exceptional atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L14205, 10.1029/1004GL019952.
  • Martin, J. E. and Otkin, J. A. 2004. The rapid growth and decay of an extratropical cyclone over the central Pacific ocean. Wea. Forecasting 19, 358–376.
  • McMurdie, L. A. and Katsaros, K. B. 1996. Satellite-derived integrated water vapour and rain intensity patterns: indicators for rapid cyclogenesis. Wea. Forecasting 11, 230–245.
  • Meehl, G. A. and Washington, W. M. 1996. El Nino-like climate change in a model with increased atmospheric CO2 concentration. Nature 382, 56–60.
  • Molinari, J. 1985. A general form of Kuo’s cumulus parameterization. Mon. Wea. Re v. 113, 1411–1416.
  • Neelin, K. K., Held, I. M. and Cook, K. H. 1987. Evaporation-wind feedback and low-frequency variability in the tropical atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sc i. 44, 2341–2348.
  • Nicholls, N. 1989. Sea surface temperatures and Australian winter rain-fall. J. Climate 2, 965–973.
  • Nitta, T. and Yamada, S. 1989. Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation. J. Meteor Soc. Japan 67, 375–383.
  • Petty, G. W. and Miller, D. G. 1995. Satellite microwave observations of precipitation correlated with intensification rate in extratropical oceanic cyclones. Mon. Wea. Re v. 123, 1904–1911.
  • Phillips, N. A. 1954. Energy transformations and meridional circulations associated with simple baroclinic waves in a two-level, quasi-geostrophic model. Tellus 6, 273–286.
  • Pierrehumbert, R. T. and Swanson, K. L. 1995. Baroclinic instability. Ann. Rev. Fluid Mech. 27,419–467.
  • Power, S., Casey, T., Folland, C., Colman, A. and Mehta, V. 1999. Interdecadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Clim. Dyn. 15,319–324.
  • Qi, L., Leslie, L. M. and Zhao, S. X. 1999. Cut-off low pressure systems over southern Australia: climatology and case study. Int. J. Climatol. 19, 1633–1649.
  • Roebber, P. J. 1984. Statistical analysis and updated climatology of explosive cyclones. Mon. Wea. Re v. 112, 1577–1589.
  • Sadler, B. S., Mauger, G. W. and Stokes, R. A. 1988. The water resources implications of a drying climate in south-west Western Australia. In: Greenhouse: Planning for Climate Change 296-311 (ed. G.I. Pearman). Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia, 752 pp.
  • Sanders, E, and Gyakum, J. R. 1980. Synoptic-dynamic climatology of the “bomb”. Mon. Wea. Re v. 108, 1589–1606.
  • Simmonds, I. and Keay, K. 2000a. Variability of Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone behavior, 1958-97. J. Climate 13, 550–561.
  • Simmonds, I. and Keay, K. 2000b. Mean Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone behavior in the 40-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. J. Climate 13, 873–885.
  • Simmons, A. J., Wallace, J. M. and Branstator, G. W. 1983. Barotropic wave propagation and instability, and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. J. Atmos. Sc i. 40, 1363–1392.
  • Simmons, A. J., da Costa Bechtold, V., Beljaars, A. C. M., Milberg, P. W. and co-authors 2004. Comparison of trends and low-frequency variability in CRU, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR analysis of surface air temperature.J. Geophys. Res. 109, D24115, 1029/2004JDO05306.
  • Smith, I. N. 1994. Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature patterns and Australian winter rainfall. Int. J. Climatol. 14, 287–305.
  • Smith, I. N. 2004. Trends in Australian rainfall — are they unusual? AusL Met. Mag. 53, 163–173.
  • Smith, I. N., McIntosh, P., Ansell, T. J., Reason, C. J. C. and McInnes, K. 2000. South-west Western Australian winter rainfall and its association with Indian Ocean climate variability. Int. J. Climatol. 20, 1913–1930.
  • Trenberth, K. E. 1981. Observed Southern hemisphere eddy statistics at 500 mb: frequency and spatial dependence. J. Atmos. Sc i. 38, 2585–2605.
  • Trenberth, K. E. 1990. Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Bull. Amer Meteor Soc. 71, 988–993.
  • Trenberth, K. E. 1991. Storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sc i. 48, 2159–2178.
  • Whitaker, J. S. and Barcilon, A. 1992. Type B cyclogenesis in a zonally varying flow. J. Atmos. Sc i. 49, 1877–1862.
  • Whitaker, J. S. and Dole, R. M. 1995. Organization of storm tracks in a zonally varying flow. J. Atmos. Sc i. 52, 1178–1191.
  • Zhang, Y., Wallace, J. M. and Battisti, D. S. 1997. ENSO-like variability: 1900-93. J. Climate 10, 1004–1020.