An analysis of regional climate model performance over the tropical Americas. Part I: simulating seasonal variability of precipitation associated with ENSO forcing

References

• Aceituno, P. 1988. On the functioning of the southern oscillation in the South American sector. Part I: Surface climate. Mon. Wea. Rev. 116, 505–524.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Adams, D. K. and Comrie, A. C. 1997. The North American Monsoon. Bull. Am. MeteoroL Soc. 78, 2197–2213.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P.-P. and co-authors. 2003. The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present). J. Hydrometeorol. 4, 1147-1167.
   Google Scholar
• Albrecht, B. A. 1981. Parameterization of trade-cumulus cloud amounts. J. Atmos. Sci. 38, 97–105.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alexander, M. A., Blade, I., Newman, M., Lanzante, J. R., Lau, N.-C. and co-authors. 2002. The Atmospheric Bridge: the influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans. J. Clim. 15, 2205-2231.
   Google Scholar
• Alfaro, E. J. 2002. Some characteristics of the snnual precipitation cy-cle in Central America and their relationships with its surrounding tropical oceans.Top. MeteoroL Oceanogr 9, 88-103.
   Google Scholar
• Chiang, J. C. H., Kushnir, Y. and Zebiak, S. E. 2000. Interdecadal changes in eastern Pacific ITCZ variability and its influence on the Atlantic ITCZ. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 3687-3690.
   Google Scholar
• Chou, S. C., Bustamante, J. F. and Gomes, J. L. 2005. Evaluation of Eta Model seasonal precipitation forecasts over South America.Nonlinear Processes Geophys. 12, 537-555.
   Google Scholar
• Cuxart, J., Bougeault, P. and Redelsperger, J.-L. 2000. A turbulence scheme allowing for mesoscale and large-eddy simulations. Quart. J. R. MeteoroL Soc. 126, 1–30.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Davies, H. C. 1976. A lateral boundary formulation for multi-level pre-diction models. Quart. J. R. MeteoroL Soc. 102,405–418.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Deng, A., Seaman, N. L. and Kain, J. S. 2003. A shallow-convection parameterization for mesoscale models, part I: submodel description and preliminary applications. J. Atmos. Sci. 60, 34–56.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Enfield, D. B. 1996. Relationship of inter-American rainfall to tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST variability. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 3305–3308.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Enfield, D. B. and Alfaro, E. J. 1999. The dependence of Caribbean rainfall on the interaction of the tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. J. Clim. 12, 2093–2103.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Enfield, D. B. and Mayer, D. A. 1997. Tropical Atlantic sea surface tem-perature variability and its relation to El Nifio-Southern Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 929–945.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fernandez, J. P. R., Franchito, S. H. and Rao, V. B. 2006a. Simulation of the summer circulation over South America by two regional climate models. Part I: Mean climatology. Theor Appl. Climatol. 86, 247-260.
   Google Scholar
• Fernandez, J. P. R., Franchito, S. H. and Rao, V. B. 2006b. Simulation of the summer circulation over South America by two regional cli-mate models. Part II: A comparison between 1997/1998 El Nino and 1998/1999 La Nina events. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 86, 261–270.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Giannini, A., Kushnir, Y. and Cane, M. A. 2000. Interannual variability of Caribbean Rainfall, ENSO, and the Atlantic Ocean. J. Clim. 13, 297–311.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Giannini, A., Cane, M. A. and Kushnir, Y. 2001a. Interdecadal changes in the ENSO teleconnection to the Caribbean region and the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Clim. 14, 2867–2879.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Giannini, A., Chiang, J. C.H., Cane, M. A., Kushnir, Y. and Seager, R. 2001b. The ENSO teleconnection to the tropical Atlantic Ocean: contributions of the remote and local SSTs to rainfall variability in the tropical Americas. J. Clim. 14, 4530-4544.
   Google Scholar
• Gochis, D. J., Shuttleworth, W. J. and Yang, Z.-L. 2002. Sensitivity of the modeled North American Monsoon regional climate to convective parameterization. Mon. Wea. Rev. 130, 1282–1298.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Goddard, L., Mason, S. J., Zebiak, S. E., Ropelewslci, C., Basher, R. and co-authors. 2001. Current approaches to seasonal to interannual climate predictions. Int. J. Climatol. 21, 1111-1152.
   Google Scholar
• Hernandez, J. L., Srilcishen, J., Erickson, D. J., Oglesby, R. and Irwin, D. 2006. A regional climate study of Central America using the MM5 modeling system: results and comparison to observations.Int. J. Cli-matol. 26, 2161-2179.
   Google Scholar
• Horel, J. D. and Wallace, J. M. 1981. Planetary-scale atmospheric phe-nomena associated with the Southern Oscillation.Mon. Wea. Rev. 109, 813-829.
   Google Scholar
• Huffman, G. J., Adler, R. E, Bolvin, D. T., Gu, G., Nelkin, E. J. and co-authors. 2007. The TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): quasi-global, multiyear, combined-sensor precipitation es-timates at fine scales. J. Hydrometeorol. 8, 38-55.
   Google Scholar
• Jones, C. G., Witten, U., Ullerstig, A. and Hansson, U. 2004. The Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Climate Model part I: model climatol-ogy and performance for the present climate over Europe. Ambio 33, 199–210.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kain, J. S. 2004. The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: an up-date. J. Appl. MeteoroL 43, 170–181.
   Google Scholar
• Kain, J. S. and Fritsch, J. M. 1990. A one-dimensional entrain-ing/detraining plume model and its application in convective param-eterization. J. Atmos. Sci. 47, 2784–2802.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kain, J. S. and Fritsch, J. M. 1993. Convective parameterizations for Mesoscale Models: the Kain-Fritsch scheme. In: The representation of cumulus convection in numerical models, Meteor Monogr. Volume 46. American Meteorological Society, 165-170.
   Google Scholar
• Kjellström, E., Bärring, L., Gollvilc, S., Hansson, U., Jones, C. and co-authors. 2005. A 140-year simulation of European climate with the new version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3). SMHI Reports Meteorology and Climatology (108). SMHI, SE-60176 Norrkoping, Sweden, 54 pp.
   Google Scholar
• Kousky, V. E., Kagano, M. T. and Cavalcanti, I. 1984. A review of the Southern Oscillation: oceanic-atmospheric circulation changes and related rainfall anomalies. Tellus A 36A, 490–504.
   Google Scholar
• Latif, M., Anderson, D.,Barnett, T., Cane, M., Kleeman, R. and co-authors. 1998. A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO.J. Geophys. Res. 103, 14375-14393.
   Google Scholar
• Lenderink, G. and Holtslag, A. A. M. 2004. An updated length-scale formulation for turbulent mixing in clear and cloudy boundary layers. Quart. J. R. MeteoroL Soc. 130, 3405–3427.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Liebmann, B. and Marengo, J. A. 2001. Interannual variability of the rainy season and rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon Basin. J. Clim. 14, 4308–4318.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Magañia, V. and Caetano, E. 2005. Temporal evolution of summer con-vective activity over the Americas warm pools. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L02803.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Magañia, V., Amador, J. A. and Medina, S. 1999. The midsummer drought over Mexico and Central America. J. Clim. 12, 1577–1588.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Magañia, V. J., Vázquez, J. L., Perez, J. L. and Perez, J. B. 2003. Impact of El Nino on precipitation in Mexico. Geofis. Int. 42, 313-330.
   Google Scholar
• Marengo, J. A. 1992. Interannual variability of surface climate in the Amazon basin. Int. J. Climatol. 12, 853-863.
   Google Scholar
• Marengo, J. A. and Hastenrath, S. 1993. Case studies of extreme climatic events in the Amazon Basin. J. Clim. 6, 617–627.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marengo, J. A., Liebmann, B., Kousky, V. E., Filizola, N. P. and Wainer, I. C. 2001. Onset and end of the rainy season in the Brazilian Amazon Basin.J. Clim. 14, 833-852.
   Google Scholar
• Marengo, J., Cavalcanti, I.,Satyamurty, P., Trosnilcov, I., Nobre, C. and co-authors. 2003. Assessment of regional seasonal rainfall pre-dictability using the CPTEC/COLA atmospheric GCM. Clim. Dyn. 21, 459-475.
   Google Scholar
• Masson, V., Champeaux, J.-L., Chauvin, F., Meriguet, C. and Lacaze, R. 2003. A global database of land surface parameters at 1-km resolution in meteorological and climate models. J. Clim. 16, 1261–1282.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mitchell, T. D. and Jones, P. D. 2005. An improved method of con-structing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. ClimatoL 25, 693–712.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nobre, P. and Shukla, J. 1996. Variations of sea surface temperature, wind stress, and rainfall over the tropical Atlantic and South America. J. Clim. 9, 2464–2479.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Onogi, K., Tsutsui, J., Koide, H., Salcamoto, M., Kobayashi, S. and co-authors. 2007. The JRA-25 reanalysis. J. MeteoroL Soc. Jpn. 85, 369-432.
   Google Scholar
• Palmer, T. N., Alessandri, A., Andersen, U., Cantelaube, P., Davey, M. and co-authors. 2004. Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Am. MeteoroL Soc. 85, 853-872.
   Google Scholar
• Pan, Z., Talcle, E., Gutowski, W. and Turner, R. 1999. Long simulation of Regional Climate as a Sequence of Short Segments. Mon. Wea. Rev. 127, 308–321.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Philander, S. G. 1990. El Nirio, La Niria, and the Southern Oscillation, International Geophysics Series Volume 46 (eds. R. Dmowska, and J. R. Holton) Academic Press, San Diego, CA.
   Google Scholar
• Qian, J.-H., Seth, A. and Zebiak, S. 2003. Reinitialized versus continuous simulations for regional climate downscaling. Mon. Wea. Rev. 131, 2857–2874.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Räisänen, P., Rummukainen, M. and Räisdnen, J. 2000. Modification of the HIRLAM radiation scheme for use in the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric Climate model.Report 49, Department of Meteorology, University of Helsinki, 71 pp.
   Google Scholar
• Rasch, P. J. and Kristansson, J. E. 1998. A comparison of the CCM3 model climate using diagnosed and predicted condensate parameter-izations. J. Clim. 11, 1587–1614.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rauscher, S. A., Seth, A., Liebmann, B., Qian, J.-H. and Camargo, S. J. 2007. Regional climate model-simulated timing and charac-ter of seasonal rains in South America. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135, 2642-2657.
   Google Scholar
• Ropelewski, C. F. and Halpert, M. S. 1987. Global and regional scale pre-cipitation patterns associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 115, 1606–1626.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ropelewski, C. F. and Halpert, M. S. 1989. Precipitation patterns asso-ciated with the high index phase of the southern oscillation. J. Clim. 2, 268–284.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ropelewski, C. F. and Halpert, M. S. 1996. Quantifying southern oscillation-precipitation relationships. J. Clim. 9, 1043–1059.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Samuelsson, P., Gollvilc, S. and Ullerstig, A. 2006. The land-surface scheme of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3).Report in Meteorology 122, SMHL SE-601 76 Norrkiiping, Sweden.
   Google Scholar
• Sardeshmulch, P. D. and Hoskins, B. J. 1988. The generation of global rotational flow by steady idealized tropical divergence. J. Atmos. Sci. 45, 1228–1251.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sardeshmulch, P. D., Compo, G. P. and Penland, C. 2000. Changes of probability associated with El Niiio.J. Clim. 13, 4268-4286.
   Google Scholar
• Savijärvi, H. 1990. Fast radiation parameterisation schemes for mesoscale and short-range forecast models. J. AppL MeteoroL 29, 437–447.
   Google Scholar
• Seth, A., Rauscher, S. A., Camargo, S. J., Qian, J.-H. and Pal, J. S. 2007. RegCM3 regional climatologies for South America using reanalysis and ECHAM global model driving fields. Clim. Dyn. 28,461–380.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shukla, J. 1998. Predictability in the midst of chaos: a scientific basis for climate forecasting. Science 282, 728–731.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shukla, J., Anderson, J., Baumhefner, D., Branlcovic, C., Chang, Y. and co-authors. 2000. Dynamical seasonal prediction. Bull. Am MeteoroL Soc. 81, 2593-2606.
   Google Scholar
• Simmons, A., Wallace, J. and Branstator, G. 1983. Barotropic wave propagation and instability, and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. J. Atmos. Sci. 40, 1363–1392.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Small, R. J. J., de Szoeke, S. P. and Xie, S.-P. 2007. The Central Amer-ican midsummer drought: regional aspects and large-scale forcing. J. Clim. 20, 4853-4873.
   Google Scholar
• Smith, T. M. and Reynolds, R. W. 2004. Improved extended reconstruc-tion of SST (1854-1997). J. Clim. 17, 2466–2477.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sun, L., Moncunill, D. E, Li, H., Moura, A. D., Filho, F. D. A. D. S. and co-authors. 2006. An operational dynamical downscaling predic-tion system for Nordeste Brazil and the 2002-04 real-time forecast evaluation. J. Clim. 19, 1990–2007.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Taylor, M. A. and Alfaro, E. J. 2005. Climate of Central America and the Caribbean. In: The Encyclopedia of World Climatology (ed.J. E. Oliver), Springer, Netherlands, 193-189.
   Google Scholar
• Taylor, M. A., Enfield, D. B. and Chen, A. A. 2002. Influence of the tropical Atlantic versus the tropical Pacific on Caribbean rainfall. J. Geophys. Res. 107, 3127.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tourigny, E. and Jones, C. 2009. An analysis of regional climate model performance over the tropical Americas. Part II: simulating subsea-sonal variability of precipitation associated with ENSO forcing.Tellus A, doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00387.x.
   Google Scholar
• Uppala, S. M., Kallberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., da Costa Bechtold, V. and co-authors. 2005. The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131, 2961-3012.
   Google Scholar
• Wang, H.-J., Zhang, R.-H., Cole, J. and Chavez, F. 1999. El Nifio and the related phenomenon Southern Oscillation (ENS0): the largest signal in interannual climate variation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 96, 11071-11072.
   Google Scholar
• Xie, S.-P., Miyama, T., Wang, Y., Xu, H., de Szoeke, S. P. and co-authors. 2007. A regional ocean-atmosphere model for eastern pa-cific climate: toward reducing tropical biases. J. Clim. 20, 1504-1522.
   Google Scholar
• Xu, K.-M. and Krueger, S. K. 1991. Evaluation of cloudiness param-eterizations using a cumulus ensemble model. Mon. Wea. Re v. 119, 342–367.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Xu, K.-M. and Randall, D. A. 1996. A semiempirical cloudiness pa-rameterization for use in climate models. J. Atmos. Sc i. 53, 3084–3102.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Xu, J., Gao, X., Shuttleworth, J., Sorooshian, S. and Small, E. 2004. Model climatology of the North American Monsoon onset period during 1980-2001. J. Clim. 17, 3892–3906.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar