Seven years of activity in the field of mesoscale ensemble forecasting by the COSMO-LEPS system: main achievements and open challenges

References

• Bowler, N. E., Arribas, A., Mylne, K. R., Robertson, K. B. and Beare, S. E. 2008. The MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134, 703–722.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Buizza, R., Hollingsworth, A., Lalaurette, E and Ghelli, A. 1999. Proba-bilistic predictions of precipitation using the ECMWF ensemble pre-diction system. Wea. Forecasting 14, 168-189.
   Google Scholar
• Buizza, R. 2005. The ECMWF ensemble prediction system. In: Pre-dictability of Weather and Climate (eds. T. Palmer and R. Hagedorn). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 459–488.
   Google Scholar
• Buizza, R., Bidlot, J.-R., Wedi, N., Fuentes, M., Hamrud, M. and co-authors. 2007. The new ECMWF VAREPS (Variable Resolution En-semble Prediction System). Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133, 681-695.
   Google Scholar
• Diomede, T., Marsigli, C., Montani, A. and Paccagnella, T. 2010. Comparison of calibration techniques for a limited-area ensem-ble precipitation forecast using reforecasts. In: Proceedings of the Third WMO International Conference On QPE/QPF and Hydrology, Nanjing, China, 18-22 October 2010.
   Google Scholar
• Epstein, E. S. 1969. A scoring system for probabilities of ranked cate-gories. J. AppL Meteor. 8, 985–987.
   Google Scholar
• Fundel, F., Walser, A., Liniger, M. A., Frei, C. and Appenzeller, C. 2009. Calibrated precipitation forecasts for a limited-area ensem-ble forecast system using reforecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 138, 176–189. 10.1175/2009MWR2977.1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hamill, T. M. and Juras, J. 2006. Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or is it the varying climatology? Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 132, 2905–2923.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Houtelcamer, P. L., Derome, J., Ritchie, H. and Mitchell, H. L. 1996. A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev. 124, 1225–1242.
   Google Scholar
• Marsigli, C., Montani, A., Nerozzi, F., Paccagnella, T., Tibaldi, S. and co-authors. 2001. A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. Part II: limited-area experiments in four Alpine flood events. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 127, 2095-2115.
   Google Scholar
• Marsigli, C., Boccanera, F., Montani, A. and Paccagnella, T. 2005a. The COSMO-LEPS ensemble system: validation of the method-ology and verification. Nonlin. Proc. in Geophys. 12, 527–536.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marsigli, C., Montani, A., Paccagnella, T., Sacchetti, D., Walser, A. and co-authors. 2005b. Evaluation of the performance of the COSMO-LEPS system. COSMO Technical Report no 8, 40. Avail-able at http://www.cosmo-model.org/.
   Google Scholar
• Marsigli, C., Montani, A. and Paccagnella, T. 2008. A spatial verifica-tion method applied to the evaluation of high-resolution ensemble forecasts. Met. AppL 15, 125–143.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mason, S. J. and Graham, N. E. 1999. Conditional probabilities, relative operating characteristics and relative operating levels. Wea. Forecast-ing 14,713–725.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Palmer, T. N. and Petroliagis, T. 1996. The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: methodology and validation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 122, 73–119.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Marsigli, C., Montani, A., Nerozzi, E and co-authors. 2001. A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. Part I: definition of representative members and global-model experiments. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 127, 2069-2094.
   Google Scholar
• Montani, A., Capaldo, M., Cesari, D., Marsigli, C., Modigliani, U. and co-authors. 2003a. Operational limited-area ensemble forecasts based on the Lolcal Modell. ECMWF Newsletter 98, 2-7. Available at: http://www.ecmwtint/publications/.
   Google Scholar
• Montani, A., Marsigli, C., Nerozzi, F., Paccagnella, T., Tibaldi S. and co-authors. 2003b. The Soverato flood in Southern Italy: performance of global and limited-area ensemble forecasts. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 10, 261-274.
   Google Scholar
• Montani, A., Marsigli, C. and Paccagnella, T. 2008a. Five years of limited-area ensemble activities at ARPA-SIM: the COSMO-LEPS system. COSMO Newsletter 8, 23-26. Available at: http://www.cosmo-model.org/.
   Google Scholar
• Montani, A., Marsigli, C. and Paccagnella, T. 2008b. Performance of COSMO-LEPS system during the D-PHASE operations pe-riod. COSMO Newsletter 9, 50-53. Available at: http://www.cosmo-model.org/.
   Google Scholar
• Mullen, S. L. and Buizza, R. 2001. Quantitative precipitation forecast over the United States by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev. 129, 638–663.
   Google Scholar
• Oberto, E. and Turco, M. 2008. Report about the latest results of precipi-tation verification over Italy. COSMO Newsletter 8, 37-44. Available at: http://www.cosmo-model.org/.
   Google Scholar
• Rotach, M. W., Ambrosetti, P., Ament, F., Appenzeller, C., Arpagaus, M. and co-authors. 2009. MAP D-PHASE: real-time demonstration of weather forecast quality in the Alpine region. Bull. Am. Meteor Soc 90 (9), 1321-1336, 10.1175/2009BAMS2776.1
   Google Scholar
• Saetra, O., Hersbach, H., Bidlot, J.-R. and Richardson, D. S. 2004. Effects of observation error on the statistics for ensemble spread and reliability. Mon. Wea. Rev. 132, 1487-1501.
   Google Scholar
• Steppeler, J., Doms, G., Schattler, U., Bitzer, H. W., Gassmann, A. and co-authors. 2003. Meso—gamma scale forecasts using the nonhydro-static model LM. Meteor Atmos. Phys. 82, 75-96.
   Google Scholar
• Talagrand, O., Vautard, R. and Strauss, B. 1999. Evaluation of proba-bilistic prediction systems. In: Proceedings of the ECMWF Workshop on Predictability, Reading, UK, 20-22 October 1997,372. Available at: http://www.ecmwtint/publications/.
   Google Scholar
• Tibaldi, S., Paccagnella, T., Marsigli, C., Montani, A. and Nerozzi, F. 2006. Limited—area ensemble forecasting: the COSMO—LEPS system. In: Predictability of weather and climate (eds. T. Palmer and R. Hagedorn). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 489–513.
   Google Scholar
• Tracton, M. S. and Kalnay, E. 1993. Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Centre: practical aspects. Wea. Forecast-ing 8, 379–398.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Walser, A. 2006. COSMO-LEPS forecasts for the August 2005 Floods in Switzerland. COSMO Newsletter 6, 142-145. Available at: http://www.cosmo-model.org/.
   Google Scholar
• Wilks, D. S. 1995. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, New York, 467.
   Google Scholar
• Zappa, M., Rotach, M. W., Arpagaus, M., Dorninger, M., Hegg, C. and co-authors. 2008. MAP D—PHASE: real—time demonstration of hydrological ensemble prediction systems. Atmos. Sci. Let. 9, 80-87. 10.1002/as1.183.
   Google Scholar