102
Views
1
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

EuroTEPS— a targeted version of ECMWF EPS for the European area

&
Pages 415-428 | Received 30 Apr 2010, Accepted 10 Dec 2010, Published online: 15 Dec 2016

References

  • Anwender, D., Jones, S. C., Leutbecher, M. and Han, P. A. 2010. Sensitivity experiments for ensemble forecasts of the extratropical transition of typhoon Tolcage 2004. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136, 183–200.
  • Aspelien, A., Iversen, T., Bremnes, J. B. and Frogner, I-L. 2011. Short-range probabilistic forecasts from the Norwegian limited-area EPS. Long-term validation and a polar low study. Tellus 63A, this issue.
  • Bishop, C. H., Etherton, B. J. and Majumdar, S. J. 2001. Adaptive sampling with the ensemble transform Kalman filter. Part I: theoretical aspects. Mon. Wea. Rev. 129, 420–436.
  • Bowler, N. E. 2006. Explicitly accounting for observation error in cate-gorical verification of forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 134, 1600–1606.
  • Bowler, N. E., Arribas, A., Mylne, K. R., Robertson, K. B. and Beare S. 2008. The MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134 (632), 703–722. 10.1002/qj.234.
  • Buizza, R. 1994. Localization of optimal perturbations using a projection operator. Q. J. R. Meteorol Soc. 120, 1647–1681. 10.1002/qj.49712052010.
  • Buizza, R., Tribbia, J., Molteni, F. and Palmer, T. 1993. Computation of optimal unstable structures for a numerical weather prediction model. Tellus 45A, 388–407.
  • Buizza, R., Miller, M. and Palmer, T. N. 1999. Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 2887–2908. 10.1256/smsqj.56005.
  • Buizza, R., Leutbecher, M. and Isaksen L. 2008. Potential use of analyses in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. 134 (637), 2051–2066. 10.1002/qj.346.
  • Fjortoft, R. 1953. On the change in the spectral distribution of kinetic energy for two dimensional, non-divergent flow. Tellus 5, 225–230.
  • Frogner, I.-L. and Iversen, T. 2001. Targeted ensemble prediction for northern Europe and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean. Tellus 53A, 35–55.
  • Frogner, I.-L. and Iversen, T. 2002. High-resolution limited-area ensem-ble predictions base don low-resolution targeted singular vectors. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 128, 1321–1341.
  • Frogner, I.-L., Haakenstad, H. and Iversen, T. 2006. Limited-area en-semble predictions at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Q. J. R. Meteorol Soc. 132, 2785–2808. 10.1256/qj.04.178.
  • Gebhardt, C, Theis, S., Krahe, P. and Renner, V. 2008. Experimental ensemble forecasts of precipitation based on a convection-resolving model. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 9, 67–72.
  • Hamill, T. M. 2001. Interpretation of rank histograms for ver-ifying ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 129 (3), 550–560. 10.1175/1520-0493(2001)1292.0.00;2.
  • Hamill, T. M., Whitaker, J. S. and Wei, X., 2004. Ensemble refore-casting: Improving medium-range forecast skill using retrospective forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 132, 1434–1447.
  • Hohenegger C. and Schär, C. 2007. Atmospheric predictability at syn-optic versus cloud-resolving scales. Bull. Amer Meteor Soc. 88 (11), 1783–1793. 10.1175/13AMS-88-11-1783.
  • Iversen, T., Decicmyn, A., Santos, C., Sattler, K., Bremnes, J. B. and co-authors. 2011. A grand LAM-EPS (GLAMEPS) for operational use. Tellus 63A, this issue.
  • Kristiansen, J., Sorland, S. L., Iversen, T., Bjorge, D. and Koltzow, M. O. 2011. High-resolution ensemble prediction of a polar low devel-opment. Tellus 63A, this issue.
  • Leutbecher, M. 2007. On the representation of initial uncertainties with multiple sets of singular vectors optimized for different criteria. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133, 2045–2056. 10.1002/qj.174.
  • Lorenz, E. N. 1963. Deterministic non-periodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 20, 130–141.
  • Mafouf, J-F. 1999. Influence of physical processes on the tangent linear-approximation. Tellus 51A:147–166.
  • Marsigli, C., Boccanera, F., Montani, A. and Paccagnella, T. 2005. The COSMO-LEPS mesoscale ensemble prediction system: Validation of the methodology and verification. Nonlin. Process. Geophys. 12, 527–536.
  • Palmer, T. N., Alessandri, A., Andersen, U., Cantelaube, R, Davey, M. and co-authors. 2004. Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Amer MeteoroL Soc. 85, 853-872.
  • Palmer, T. N. and Williams, P. (eds.) 2010, Stochastic Physics and Cli-mate Modeling. Cambridge University Press. UK. 480.
  • Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polalcowski, M. 2005. Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev. 133, 1155–1174.
  • Swtra, O., Hersbach, H., Bidlot, J-R. and Richardson, D. S. 2004. Ef-fects of observation errors on the statistics for ensemble spread and reliability. Mon. Wea. Rev. 132, 1487-1501.
  • Schwartz, C., Kain, J., Coniglio, M., Weiss, S., Bright, D. and co-authors. 2010. Toward improved convection-allowing ensembles: model physics sensitivities and optimizing probabilistic guidance with small ensemble membership. Am. MeteoroL Soc. 25 (1), 263-280.
  • Toth, Z. and Kalnay, E., 1993, Ensemble forecasting at NMC: the gen-eration of perturbations. Bull. Amer Meteorol. Soc. 74, 2317–2330.
  • Vitart, F., Buizza, R., Balmaseda M. A., Balsamo, G., Bidlot, J.-R. and co-authors. 2008. The new VarEPS-monthly forecasting system: a first step towards seamless prediction. Q. J. R. MeteoroL Soc. 134 (636), 1789-1799. 10.1002/qj.322.
  • Walser, A., Arpagus, M, Appenzeller, C. and Leutbecher, M. 2006. The impact of moist singular vectors and horizontal resolution on short-range limited-area ensemble forecasts for two European winter storms. Mon. Wea. Rev. 134. 2877–2887.