78
Views
15
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Hurricane forecasts using a suite of large-scale models

, , , &
Pages 727-745 | Received 12 Jun 2010, Accepted 24 Jan 2011, Published online: 15 Dec 2016

References

  • Bengtsson, L., Botzet, M. and Esch, M. 1995. Hurricane type vortices in a general circulation model. Tellus 47A, 175–196.
  • Buizza, R., Houtekamer, P. L., Toth, Z., Pellerin, G., Wei, M. and co-authors. 2005. A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev. 133, 1076-1097.
  • Cane, D. and Milelli, M. 2006. Weather forecasts obtained with a mul-timodel superensemble technique in a complex orography region. Meteorol. Z. 15, 207–214.
  • Cartwright, T. J. 2004. Warm season mesoscale superensemble pre-cipitation forecasts. Ph.D. Dissertation, The Florida State Univer-sity, Tallahassee, FL, 104 pp. Available at: http://etd.lib.fsu.edu/theses/available/etd-10252004-132554/. Last accessed Mar2011.
  • Chakraborty, A. and Krishnamurti, T. N. 2006. Improved seasonal cli-mate forecasts of the south Asian summer monsoon using a suite of 13 coupled ocean—atmosphere models. Mon. Wea. Rev. 134, 1697–1721.
  • Chakraborty, A., Krishnamurti, T. N. and Gnanaseelan, C. 2007. Predic-tion of the Diurnal Cycle Using a Multimodel Superensemble. Part II: clouds. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135, 4097–4116.
  • Cullen, M. J. P. 1993. The Unified Forecast/Climate Model. Meteor Mag. 122, 81–94.
  • Franklin, J. 2005a. 2004 National Hurricane Center Fore-cast Verification Report. Available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfsNerification_2004.pdf.. Last accessed Mar 2011.
  • Franklin, J. 2005b. 2004 NHC verification report, 59th Inter-departmental Hurricane Conference, Jacksonville, FL. Available at: http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc05/1inlcing_file_ihc05.htm. Last accessed Oct 2008.
  • Franklin, J. 2006. 2005 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verifi-cation Report. Available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfsNerification_2005.pdf. Last accessed Mar 2011.
  • Franklin, J. 2009. 2008 National Hurricane Center Fore-cast Verification Report. Available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfsNerification_2008.pdf. Last accessed Mar 2011.
  • Goerss, J. S. and Jeffries, R. A. 1994. Assimilation of synthetic tropical cyclone observations into the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System. Wea. Forecast. 9, 557–576.
  • Goerss, J. S. 2000. Tropical cyclone track forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models. Mon. Wea. Rev. 128, 1187–1193.
  • Goerss, J. S., Sampson, C. R. and Gross, J. M. 2004. A History of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Skill. Wea. Forecast. 19, 633–638.
  • Heming, J., Chan, J. and Radford, A. 1995. A new scheme for the initilisation of the tropical cyclones in the UK Meteorological Office global model. MeteoroL AppL 2, 171–184.
  • Hogan, T. and Rosmond, T. 1991. The description of the Navy Opera-tional Global Atmospheric prediction systems spectral forecast model. Mon. Wea. Rev. 119, 1786–1815.
  • Houze R. A., Chen, S. S., Smull, B. E, Lee, W-C. and Bell, M. M. 2007. Hurricane intensity and eyewall replacement. Science 315, 1235–1239.
  • Järvinen, B. R., Neumann, C. J. and Davis, M. A. S. 1984. A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic Basin, 1886-1983: contents, limitations, and uses. NOAA Technical Memorandum, NVVS NHC 22, Coral Gables, Florida,21 pp.
  • Knabb, R. D., Rhome, J. R. and Brown, D. P. 2006a. Tropical cy-clone report, Hurricane Katrina, 23-30 August 2005. Available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/T’CR-AL122005_Katrina.pdf. Last ac-cessed Mar 2011.
  • Knabb, R. D., Rhome, J. R. and Brown, D. P. 2006b. Tropical cy-clone report, Hurricane Rita, 18-26 September 2005. Available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/T’CR-AL182005_Rita.pdf. Last ac-cessed Mar 2011.
  • Krishnamurti, T. N., Surendran, S., Shin, D. W., Torres, R. C., Vijaya Kumar, T. S. V. and co-authors. 2001. Real-Time multianalysis-multimodel superensemble forecasts of precipitation using TRMM and ssmn Products. Mon. Wea. Rev. 129, 2861-2883.
  • Krishnamurti T. N., Kishtawal, C. M., LaRow, T., Bachiochi, D., Zhang, Z. and co-authors. 1999. Improved skills for weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble. Science 285, 1548-1550.
  • Krishnamurti, T. N., Kishtawal, C. M., LaRow, T., Bachiochi, D., Zhang, Z., and co-authors. 2000. Multimodel superensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate. J. Climate 13, 4196-4216.
  • Krishnamurti, T. N., Pattnaik, S., Biswas, M. K., Kramer, M., Bensman, Ed and co-authors. 2010. Hurricane forecasts with a mesoscale suite of models. Tellus A 62A, 633-646.
  • Kumar, T. S. V., Krishnamurti, T. N., Fiorino, M. and Nagata, M. 2003. Multimodel superensemble forecasting of tropical cyclones in the Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev. 131, 574–583.
  • Kurihara, Y., Bender, M. and Ross, R. 1993. An initialization scheme of hurricane models by vortex specification. Mon. Wea. Rev. 121, 2030–2045.
  • Kurihara, Y., Bender, M., Tuleya, R. and Ross, R. 1995. Improve-ments in the GFDL hurricane prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev. 123, 2791–2801.
  • Kurihara, Y., Tuleya, R. and Bender, M. 1998. The GFDL hurricane prediction system and its performance in 1995 hurricane season. Mon. Wea. Rev. 126, 1306–1322.
  • Molteni, R., Buizza, Palmer, T. N. and Petroliagis, T. 1996. The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc. 122, 73-120.
  • Park, K., Zou, X. and Li, G. 2009. A numerical study on rapid intensi-fication of Hurricane Charley (2004) near landfall. Front. Earth Sci. China 3, 10.1007/s11707-009-0048-y.
  • Pasch, R. J., Blake, E. S., Cobb, H. D. and Roberts, D. V. 2006. Tropical cyclone report, Hurricane Wilma, 15-25 October 2005. Available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/T’CR-AL252005_Wilma.pdf. Last accessed Mar2011.
  • Raftery, A. E., Balabdaoui, F., Gneiting, T. and Polalcowski, M. 2003. Us-ing Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Tech. Rep. No. 440, Dept. of Stat., University of Washington,32 pp.
  • Rhome, J. R. 2007. Technical Summary of the National Hurricane Center Track and intensity Models. Available at: http://www.nhc. noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml. Last accessed Mar2011.
  • Sampson, Goerss, J. S. and Schrader, A. J. 2005. A consensus track forecasts for southern hemisphere tropical cyclones. Aust. Met. Mag. 54, 115-119.
  • Sampson, C. R., Franklin, J. L., Knaff, J. A. and DeMaria, M. 2008. Experiments with a simple tropical cyclone intensity consensus. Wea. Forecast. 23, 304–312.
  • Stefanova, L. and Krisnamurti, T. N. 2002. Interpretation of seasonal climate forecast using Brier skill score, the Florida State University superensemble, and the AMIP-I dataset. J. Clim. 15, 534–544.
  • Toth, Z. and Kalnay, E. 1993. Ensemble forecasting at NMC: the generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer Meteor. Soc. 74, 2317–2330.
  • Toth, Z. and Kalnay, E. 1997. Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev. 125, 3297–3319.
  • Vialard, J., Vitart, F., Balmaseda, M. A., Stockdale, T. N. and Anderson, D. L. T. 2005. An ensemble generation method for seasonal forecast-ing with an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Mon. Wea. Rev. 133, 441–453.
  • Williford, C. E., Krishnamurti, T. N., Torres, R. C., Cocke, S., Chris-tidis, Z. and co-authors. 2003. Real-time multimodel superensemble forecasts of Atlantic tropical systems of 1999. Mon. Wea. Rev. 131, 1878–1894.