- AMS 2008. Enhancing weather information with probability forecasts. Bull. Am. Meteor Soc. 89, 1049–1053.
- Anderson, J. L. 1996. A method for producing and evaluating proba-bilistic precipitation forecasts from ensemble model integrations. J. Clim. 9, 1518–1530.
- Bremnes, J. B. 2007. Improved calibration of precipitation forecasts using ensemble techniques. Part 2: statistical calibration methods, Technical report, Norwegian Meteorological Institute.
- Briicker, J. and Smith, L. A. 2007. Increasing the reliability of reliability diagrams. Wea. Forecasting 22, 651–661.
- Eckel, F. A. and Walters, M. K. 1998. Calibrated probabilistic quan-titative precipitation forecasts based on the MRF ensemble. Wea. Forecasting 13, 1132–1147.
- Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Raftery, A. E. 2007. Probabilistic fore-casts, calibration and sharpness. J. R. Stat. Soc., B 69, 243-268. Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A. E. 2007. Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 102, 359–378.
- Good, I. J. 1952. Rational decisions. J. R. Stat. Soc., B 14, 107-114. Hamill, T. M. 2001. Interpretation of rank histograms for verifying ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 129, 550–560.
- Hamill, T. M. 2007. Comments on “calibrated surface temperature fore-casts from the Canadian ensemble prediction system using Bayesian model averaging”. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135, 4226-4230.
- Hamill, T. M. and Colucci, S. J. 1997. Verification of Eta-RSM short-range ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 125, 1312–1327.
- Hamill, T. M. and Colucci, S. J. 1998. Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 126, 711–724.
- Hamill, T. M. and Whitaker, J. S. 2006. Probabilistic quantitative precip-itation forecasts based on reforecast analogs: theory and application. Mon. Wea. Rev. 134, 3209–3229.
- Hamill, T. M., Whitaker, J. S. and Mullen, S. L. 2006. Reforecasts: an important dataset for improving weather predictions. Bull. Am. Meteor Soc. 87, 33–46.
- Hoeting, J. A., Madigan, M., Raftery, A. E. and Volinsky, C. T. 1999. Bayesian model averaging: a tutorial. Stat. Sci. 14, 382-401. Hopson, T. M. and Webster, P. J. 2010. A 1-10-day ensemble forecasting scheme for the major river basins of Bangladesh: forecasting severe floods of 2003-07. J. Hydrometeor 11, 618–641.
- Jewson, S., Brix, A. and Ziehmann, C. 2005. Weather Derivative Val-uation (eds. Jewson, S., Brix, A. and Ziehmann, C.). Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
- Johnson, C. and Swinbank, R. 2009. Medium-range multimodel en-semble combination and calibration. Q. J. R. Meteor Soc. 135, 777–794.
- Murphy, A. H. 1973. A new vector partition of the probability score. J. AppL Meteor 12, 595–600.
- Nielsen, H. A., Nielsen, T. S., Madsen, H., Giebel, G., Badger, J. and co-authors. 2006. From wind ensembles to probabilistic information about future wind power production: results from an actual appli-cation, In: 9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, Stockholm, Sweden.
- Pinson, P., McSharry, P. and Madsen, H. 2010. Reliability diagrams for non-parametric density forecasts of continuous variables: accounting for serial correlation. Q. J. R. Meteor Soc. 136, 77–90.
- Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polalcowski, M. 2005. Us-ing Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev. 133, 1155–1174.
- Roulston, M. S. and Smith, L. A. 2002. Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory. Mon. Wea. Rev. 130, 1653–1660.
- Sloughter, J. M., Raftery, A. E. and Gneiting, T. 2007. Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting using Bayesian model averag-ing. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135, 3209–3220.
- Talagrand, O., Vautard, R. and Strauss, B. 1997. Evaluation of probabilis-tic prediction systems, In: Proc. ECMWF Workshop on Predictability, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, pp. 1-25.
- Wilson, L. J., Beauregard, S., Raftery, A. E. and Verret, R. 2007. Cal-ibrated surface temperature forecasts from the Canadian ensemble prediction system using Bayesian model averaging. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135, 1364–1385.
Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
Volume 63, 2011 - Issue 5
Open access
266
Views
14
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles
Calibrating probabilistic forecasts from an NWP ensemble
Thomas NipenUniversity of British Columbia, Vancouver, CanadaCorrespondencee-mail: [email protected]
& Roland StullUniversity of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
Pages 858-875
|
Received 12 Dec 2010, Accepted 21 Jun 2011, Published online: 15 Dec 2016
Related research
People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read.
Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine.
Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.
Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab.