On the Role of Climate Change on Wind Waves Generated by Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico

References

• Amante, C. & Eakins, B. [2009] “ETOPOl 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis,” NOAA Technical Memorandum NESDIS NGDC-24, 19 pp.
   Google Scholar
• American Petroleum Institute (API) [2007] “Interim Guidance on Hurricane Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico,” Washington, DC., p. 54.
   Google Scholar
• Appendini, C. M. et al. [2013] “Wave modeling performance in the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean: Wind reanalyses assessment,” Appl. Ocean Res. 39, 20–30, doi:10.1016/j.apor.2012.09.004.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Appendini, C. M. et al. [2014] “Wave climate and trends for the Gulf of Mexico: A 30 year wave hindcast,” J. Clim. 27, 1619–1632, doi:dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00206.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Battjes, J. A. A. & Janssen, J. P. F. M. P. F. M. [1978] “Energy loss and set-up due to breaking of random waves,” Proc. 16th Int. Conf. Coastal Engineering , Vol. 1, pp. 569–587, http://journals.tdl.org/icce/index.php/icce/article/view/3294.
   Google Scholar
• Botev, Z. I. , Grotowski, J. F. L. Kroese, D. P. [2010] “Kernel density estimation via diffusion,” Ann. Stat. 38, 2916–2957, doi:10.1214/10-AOS799.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Camargo, S. J. [2013] “Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models,” J. Clim. 26, 9880–9902, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12–00549.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Coles, S. [2001] An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values (Springer, UK), p. 208.
   Google Scholar
• Cruz, A. M. Krausmann, E. [2008] “Damage to offshore oil and gas facilities following hurricanes Katrina and Rita: An overview,” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind. 21, 620–626, doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2008.04.008.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dietrich, J. C. et al. [2011] “Modeling hurricane waves and storm surge using integrally-coupled, scalable computations,” Coast. Eng. 58, 45–65, doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2010.08.001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Eldeberky, Y. & Battjes, J. A. [1995] “Parameterization of triad interactions in wave energy models,” Coastal Dynamics '95 , eds. Dally, W. R. and Zeidler, R. B. , pp. 140–148.
   Google Scholar
• Eldeberky, Y. & Battjes, J. A. [1996] “Spectral modeling of wave breaking: Application to Boussinesq equations,” J. Geophys. Res. 101, 1253, doi: 10.1029/95JC03219.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Emanuel, K. [2010] “Tropical cyclone activity downscaled from NOAA-CIRES Reanalysis, 1908–1958” J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 2, doi:10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.1.
   Google Scholar
• Emanuel, K. [2011] “Global warming effects on U.S. hurricane damage,” Weather. Clim. Soc. 3, 261–268, doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-11-00007.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Emanuel, K. [2015] “Effect of upper-ocean evolution on projected trends in tropical cyclone activity,” J. Clim. 28, 8165–8170, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15–0401.1.
   Google Scholar
• Emanuel, K. & Jagger, T. [2010] “On estimating hurricane return periods,” J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 49, 837–844, doi:10.1175/2009JAMC2236.1.
   Google Scholar
• Emanuel, K. & Nolan, D. S. [2004] “Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system,” 26th Conf. Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/75463.pdf., 10A.2.
   Google Scholar
• Emanuel, K. & Rotunno, R. [2011] “Self-stratification of tropical cyclone outflow. Part I: Implications for storm structure,” J. Atmos. Sci. 68, 2236–2249, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-10–05024.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Emanuel, K. et al. [2004] “Environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity,” J. Atmos. Sci. 61, 843–858.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Emanuel, K. et al. [2006] “A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment,” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 87, 299–314, doi:10.1175/BAMS-87-3-299.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Emanuel, K. A. [2013] “Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century,” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 110, 12219–12224, doi:10.1073/pnas.1301293110.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Emanuel, K. , Sundararajan, R. & Williams, J. [2008] “Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations,” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 89, 347–367, doi:10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fan, Y. et al. [2013] “Ocean warming effect on surface gravity wave climate change for the end of the twenty-first century,” J. Clim. 26, 6046–6066, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00410.1.
   Google Scholar
• Griffies, S. M. et al. [2011] “The GFDL CM3 coupled climate model: Characteristics of the ocean and sea ice simulations,” J. Clim. 24, 3520–3544, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3964.1.
   Google Scholar
• Hallegatte, S. [2007] “The use of synthetic hurricane tracks in risk analysis and climate change damage assessment,” J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 46, 1956–1966, doi:10.1175/2007JAMC1532.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hasselmann, S. & Hasselmann, K. [1985] “Computations and parameterizations of the nonlinear energy transfer in a gravity-wave spectrum. Part I: A new method for efficient computations of the exact nonlinear transfer integral,” J. Phys. Oceanogr. 15, 1369–1377.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hasselmann, S. et al. [1985] “Computations and parameterizations of the nonlinear energy transfer in a gravity-wave spectrum. Part II: Parameterizations of the nonlinear energy transfer for application in wave models,” J. Phys. Oceanogr. 15, 1378–1391.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hemer, M. A. et al. [2013a] “Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble,” Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 471–476, doi:10.1038/nclimatel791.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hemer, M. A. , Katzfey, J. & Trenham, C. E. [2013b] “Global dynamical projections of surface ocean wave climate for a future high greenhouse gas emission scenario,” Ocean Model. 70, 221–245, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.09.008.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hill, K. A. & Lackmann, G. M. [2011] “The impact of future climate change on TC intensity and structure: A downscaling approach,” J. Clim. 24, 4644–4661, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3761.1.
   Google Scholar
• Janssen, P. A. E. M. [1989] “Wave-induced stress and the drag of air flow over sea waves,” J. Phys. Ocean. 19, 745–754.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Janssen, P. A. E. M. [1991] “Quasi-linear theory of wind wave generation applied to wave forecasting,” J. Phys. Ocean. 21, 1631–1642.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Janssen, P. A. E. M. , Lionello, P. & Zambresky, L. [1989] “On the interaction of wind and waves,” Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London. Ser. A, Math. Phys. Sci. 329, 289–301, doi:10.1098/rsta.1989.0077.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jeong, C. K. , Panchang, V. & Demirbilek, Z. [2012] “Parametric adjustments to the rankine vortex wind model for Gulf of Mexico hurricanes,” J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng. 134, 41102, doi:10.1115/1.4006148.
   Google Scholar
• Johnson, H. K. & Kofoed-Hansen, H. [2000] “Influence of bottom friction on sea surface roughness and its impact on shallow water wind wave modeling,” J. Phys. Ocean. 30, 1743–1756.
   Google Scholar
• Jones, C. D. et al. [2011] “The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations,” Geosci. Model Dev. 4, 543–570, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-543-2011.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kaiser, M. J. & Yu, Y. [2010] “The impact of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike on offshore oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico,” Appl. Energy 87, 284–297, doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.07.014.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kalnay, E. et al. [1996] “The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project,” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77, 437–471, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Klotzbach, P. , Gray, W. & Fogarty, C. [2015] “Active Atlantic hurricane era at its end?” Nat. Publ. Gr. 8, 737–738, doi:10.1175/1520–0477.
   Google Scholar
• Komar, P. D. & Allan, J. C. [2008] “Increasing hurricane-generated wave heights along the U.S. East Coast and their climate controls,” J. Coast. Res. 242, 479–488, doi:10.1175/1520–0477.
   Google Scholar
• Komen, G. J. et al. [1994] Dynamics and Modelling of Ocean Waves (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge), p. 554.
   Google Scholar
• Landsea, C. W. [2007] “Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back to 1900,” Eos, Trans. Am. Geo- phys. Union 88, 197, doi:10.1029/2007EO180001.
   Google Scholar
• Lin, N. & Chavas, D. [2012] “On hurricane parametric wind and applications in storm surge modeling,” J. Geophys. Res. 117, D09120, doi:10.1029/2011JD017126.
   Google Scholar
• Lin, N. & Emanuel, K. [2016] “Grey swan tropical cyclones,” Nature Climate Change 6(1), 106–111, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2777
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lin, N. et al. [2010] “Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City,” J. Geophys. Res. 115, D18121, doi:10.1175/1520–0477.
   Google Scholar
• Lin, N. et al. [2012] “Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change,” Nat. Clim. Chang. 2, 462–467, doi:10.1175/1520–0477.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lin, N. et al. [2014] “Heightened hurricane surge risk in NorthWest Florida revealed from climatological-hydrodynamic modeling and paleorecord reconstruction,” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 119, 8606–8623, doi:10.1002/2014JD021584.
   Google Scholar
• Marks, D. G. [1992] “The beta and advection model for hurricane track forecasting,” NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NMC 70, National Meteorological Center, Camp Springs, MD, 89 pp.
   Google Scholar
• Mendelsohn, R. et al. [2012] “The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage,” Nat. Clim. Chang. 2 , 205–209, doi:10.1038/nclimatel357.
   Google Scholar
• Meza-Padilla, R. , Appendini, C. M. & Pedrozo-Acuña, A. [2015] “Hurricane induced waves and storm surge modeling for the Mexican coast,” Ocean Dyn. 65, 1199–1211, doi:10.1007/sl0236-015-0861-7.
   Google Scholar
• Mori, N. et al. [2010] “Projection of extreme wave climate change under global warming,” Hydrol. Res. Lett. 4, 15–19, doi:10.3178/HRL.4.15.
   Google Scholar
• Moss, R. H. et al. [2010] “The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment,” Nature 463, 747–756.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nakicenovic, N. & Swart, R. [2000] “Special report on emissions scenarios,” eds. Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R. (Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK), p. 599.
   Google Scholar
• Panchang, V. , Jeong, C. K. & Demirbilek, Z. [2013] “Analyses of extreme wave heights in the Gulf of Mexico for offshore engineering applications,” J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng. 135, 31104031104–031115, doi: 10.1115/1.4023205.
   Google Scholar
• Panchang, V. G. & Li, D. [2006] “Large waves in the Gulf of Mexico caused by Hurricane Ivan,” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 87, 481–489, doi:10.1175/BAMS-87-4-481.
   Google Scholar
• Pielke, R. A. et al. [2008] “Normalized hurricane damage in the United States: 1900–2005,” Nat. Hazards Rev. 9, 29–42, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2008)9:l(29).
   Google Scholar
• Powell, M. D. et al. [1998] “The HRD real-time hurricane wind analysis system,” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 77–78, 53–64, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6105(98)00131-7.
   Google Scholar
• Reed, A. J. et al. [2015] “An analysis of long-term relationships among count statistics and metrics of synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 models,” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 120, 7506–7519, doi:10.1002/2015JD023357.
   Google Scholar
• Ruiz-Salcines, P. [2013] “Campos de viento para hindcast de oleaje: Reanálisis, paramétricos y fusión,” M.E. thesis, Department of Ciencias y Técnicas del Agua y del Medio Ambiente. Universidad de Cantabria, p. 84.
   Google Scholar
• Saha, S. et al. [2010] “The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis,” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 91, 1015–1057, doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Semedo, A. et al. [2013] “Projection of global wave climate change toward the end of the twenty-first century,” J. Clim. 26, 8269–8288, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00658.1.
   Google Scholar
• Sheffield, J. et al. [2013a] “North American Climate in CMIP5 experiments. Part I: Evaluation of historical simulations of continental and regional climatology,” J. Clim. 26, 9209–9245, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00592.1.
   Google Scholar
• Sheffield, J. et al. [2013b] “North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part II: Evaluation of historical simulations of intraseasonal to decadal variability,” J. Clim. 26, 9247–9290, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12–00593.1.
   Google Scholar
• Sørensen, O. R. et al. [2004] “A third-generation spectral wave model using an unstructured finite volume technique,” Proc. 29th Int. Conf. Coastal Engineering, ASCE, New York, pp. 894–906.
   Google Scholar
• Tolman, H. L. [2002] “Alleviating the garden sprinkler effect in wind wave models,” Ocean Model. 4, 269–289.
   Google Scholar
• Tolman, H. L. & Alves, J.-H. G. M. [2005] “Numerical modeling of wind waves generated by tropical cyclones using moving grids,” Ocean Model. 9, 305–323.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vecchi, G. A. & Soden, B. J. [2007] “Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, 1–5, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905.
   Google Scholar
• Vickery, P. J. , Skerlj, P. F. & Twisdale, L. A. [2000] “Simulation of hurricane risk in the U.S. using empirical track model,” J. Struct. Eng. 126, 1222–1237, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2000)126:10(1222).
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang, D.-P. & Oey, L.-Y. [2008] “Hindcast of waves and currents in Hurricane Katrina,” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 89, 487–495.
   Google Scholar
• Wang, D. W. et al. [2005] “Extreme waves under hurricane {Ivan},” Science 309, 896.
   Google Scholar
• Wang, X. L. & Swail, V. R. [2006] “Climate change signal and uncertainty in projections of ocean wave heights,” Clim. Dyn. 26, 109–126, doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0080-x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar