References
- Ma J, van den Driessche P. Case fatality proportion. Bull. Math. Biol.70, 118–133 (2008).
- de Wit E, Kawaoka Y, de Jong MD, Fouchier RA. Pathogenicity of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in mammals. Vaccine26, D54–D58 (2008).
- Fineberg HV, Wilson ME. Epidemic science in real time. Science324, 987 (2009).
- Department of Health & Human Services. Interim Pre-Pandemic Planning Guidance: Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation in the United States – Early, Targeted, Layered Use of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions. CDC, Atlanta, GA, USA (2007).
- Nishiura H, Schwehm M, Eichner M. Still protected against smallpox? Estimation of the duration of vaccine-induced immunity against smallpox. Epidemiology17, 576–581 (2006).
- Nishiura H. Smallpox during pregnancy and maternal outcomes. Emerg. Infect. Dis.12, 1119–1121 (2006).
- Nishiura H, Eichner M. Estimation of the duration of vaccine-induced residual protection against severe and fatal smallpox based on secondary vaccination failure. Infection34, 241–246 (2006).
- Nishiura H, Klinkenberg D, Roberts M, Heesterbeek JA. Early epidemiological assessment of the virulence of emerging infectious diseases: a case study of an influenza pandemic. PLoS ONE4(8), e6852 (2009).
- Butler D. How severe will the flu outbreak be? Nature459, 14–15 (2009).
- Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S et al. Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings. Science324, 1557–1561 (2009).
- Garske T, Legrand J, Donnelly CA et al. Assessing the severity of the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic. BMJ339, B2840 (2009).
- Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Cox DR et al. Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease. Am. J. Epidemiol.162, 479–486 (2005).
- Nicholson K, Webster RG, Hay AJ. Textbook of Influenza. Nicholson K, Webster RG, Hay AJ (Eds.) Blackwell, MA, USA (1998).
- World Health Organization. Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 update. World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland (2009).
- Tuite AR, Greer AL, Whelan M et al. Estimated epidemiologic parameters and morbidity associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza. CMAJ182(2), 131–136 (2010).
- Nishiura H. The relationship between the cumulative numbers of cases and deaths reveals the confirmed case fatality ratio of a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus. Jpn. J. Infect. Dis.63(2), 154–156 (2010).
- Wilson N, Baker MG. The emerging influenza pandemic: estimating the case fatality ratio. Euro. Surveill.14, 19255 (2009).
- Presanis AM, De Angelis D, The New York City Swine Flu Investigation Team et al. The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: a Bayesian analysis. PLoS Med.6(12), e1000207 (2009).
- Donaldson LJ, Rutter PD, Ellis BM et al. Mortality from pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza in England: public health surveillance study. Br. Med. J.339, b5213 (2009).
- Last JM. Case fatality rate. In: A Dictionary of Epidemiology (4th edition). Last JM (Ed.). Oxford University Press, NY, USA, 24 (2000).
- Nishiura H, Chowell G, Safan M, Castillo-Chavez C. Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009. Theor. Biol. Med. Model.7, 1 (2010).
- Carrat F, Vergu E, Ferguson NM et al. Time lines of infection and disease in human influenza: a review of volunteer challenge studies. Am. J. Epidemiol.167, 775–785 (2008).
- Yang J, Yang F, Huang F, Wang J, Jin Q. Subclinical infection with the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus. Clin. Infect. Dis.49, 1622–1623 (2009).
- Miller E, Hoschler K, Hardelid P, Stanford E, Andrews N, Zambon M. Incidence of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection in England: a cross-sectional serological study. Lancet375(9720), 1100–1108 (2010).
- World Health Organization. Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 briefing note 20: comparing deaths from pandemic and seasonal influenza. World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland (2009).
- Thompson WW, Weintraub E, Dhankhar P et al. Estimates of US influenza-associated deaths made using for different methods. Influenza Other Resp. Viruses3, 37–49 (2009).
- Simonsen L, Clarke MJ, Stroup DF, Williamson GD, Arden NH, Cox NJ. A method for timely assessment of influenza-associated mortality in the United States. Epidemiology8, 390–395 (1997).
- Simonsen L, Clarke MJ, Williamson GD, Stroup DF, Arden NH, Schonberger LB. The impact of influenza epidemics on mortality: introducing a severity index. Am. J. Public Health87, 1944–1950 (1997).
- Nishiura H. Excess risk of stillbirth during the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Japan. Eur. J. Obstet. Gynecol. Reprod. Biol.147, 115 (2009).
- Cox NJ, Subbarao K. Global epidemiology of influenza: past and present. Annu. Rev. Med.51, 407–421 (2005).
- Reichert T, Chowell G, Nishiura H, Christensen RA, McCullers JA. Does glycosylation as a modifier of Original Antigenic Sin explain the case age distribution and unusual toxicity in pandemic novel H1N1 influenza? BMC Infect. Dis.10, 5 (2010).
- Fisman DN, Savage R, Gubbay J et al. Older age and a reduced likelihood of 2009 H1N1 virus infection. N. Engl. J. Med.261, 2000–2001 (2009).
- Nishiura H, Castillo-Chavez C, Safan M, Chowell G. Transmission potential of the new influenza A(H1N1) virus and its age-specificity in Japan. Euro. Surveill.14(22), 19227 (2009).
- Chowell G, Bertozzi SM, Colchero MA et al. Severe respiratory disease concurrent with the circulation of H1N1 influenza. N. Engl. J. Med.361, 674–679 (2009).
- Brundage JF. Cases and deaths during influenza pandemics in the United States. Am. J. Prev. Med.31, 252–256 (2006).
- Taubenberger JK, Morens DM. 1918 influenza: the mother of all pandemics. Emerg. Infect. Dis.12, 15–22 (2006).
- Nishiura H, Chowell G. Rurality and pandemic influenza: geographic heterogeneity in the risks of infection and death in Kanagawa, Japan (1918–1919). N. Z. Med. J.121, 18–27 (2008).
- Gottfredsson M, Halldórsson BV, Jónsson S et al. Lessons from the past: familial aggregation analysis of fatal pandemic influenza (Spanish flu) in Iceland in 1918. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA105, 1303–1308 (2008).
- Frost WH. The epidemiology of influenza. Public Health Rep.34, 1823–1861 (1919).
- Glezen WP. Serious morbidity and mortality associated with influenza epidemics. Epidemiol. Rev.4, 25–44 (1982).
- Luk J, Gross P, Thompson WW. Observations on mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Clin. Infect. Dis.33, 1375–1378 (2001).
- Olson DR, Simonsen L, Edelson PJ, Morse SS. Epidemiological evidence of an early wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic in New York City. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA102(31), 11059–11063 (2005).
- Andreasen V, Viboud C, Simonsen L. Epidemiologic characterization of the 1918 influenza pandemic summer wave in Copenhagen: implications for pandemic control strategies. J. Infect. Dis.197(2), 270–278 (2008).
- Salomon R, Hoffmann E, Webster RG. Inhibition of the cytokine response does not protect against lethal H5N1 influenza infection. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA104, 12479–12481 (2007).
- Szretter KJ, Gangappa S, Lu X et al. Role of host cytokine responses in the pathogenesis of avian H5N1 influenza viruses in mice. J. Virol.81, 2736–2744 (2007).
- Noymer A, Garenne M. The 1918 influenza epidemic’s effects on sex differentials in mortality in the United States. Popul. Dev. Rev.26, 565–581 (2000).
- Noymer A. Testing the influenza-tuberculosis selective mortality hypothesis with Union Army data. Soc. Sci. Med.68, 1599–1608 (2009).
- Palacios G, Hornig M, Cisterna D et al.Streptococcus pneumoniae coinfection is correlated with the severity of H1N1 pandemic influenza. PLoS One4(12), e8540 (2009).
- Fisman DN, Abrutyn E, Spaude KA, Kim A, Kirchner C, Daley J. Prior pneumococcal vaccination is associated with reduced death, complications, and length of stay among hospitalized adults with community-acquired pneumonia. Clin. Infect. Dis.42, 1093–1101 (2006).
- Alonso-Tarrés C, Cortes-Lletget C, Pintado S, Ricart A. Severe influenza A (H1N1)v in patients without any known risk factor. Crit. Care13(16), 425 (2009).
- Lipsitch M, Riley S, Cauchemez S, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM. Managing and reducing uncertainty in an emerging influenza pandemic. N. Engl. J. Med.361, 112–115 (2009).
- Wada K, Nishiura H, Kawana A. An epidemiological analysis of severe cases of the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infection in Japan. Influenza. Other. Resp. Viruses (In Press) (2010).
Websites
- Mexico’s mystery: Why is swine flu deadlier there? www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1894534,00.html
- Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases. Pandemic (H1N1) 2009. National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan (2010) http://idsc.nih.go.jp/disease/swine_influenza_e
- Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. Influenza A (H1N1). Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Tokyo, Japan (2010) www.mhlw.go.jp/english/topics/influenza_a/index.html