Advanced search
Publication Cover
Clinical Epidemiology Volume 14, 2022 - Issue
Submit an article Journal homepage
143
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
SHORT REPORT

Bayesian Model Averaging to Account for Model Uncertainty in Estimates of a Vaccine’s Effectiveness

Carlos R Oliveira1 Department of Pediatrics, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA;2 Department of Biostatistics, Yale University School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USACorrespondence[email protected]
ORCID Iconhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1897-6581
ORCID Icon,
Eugene D Shapiro1 Department of Pediatrics, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA;3 Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale University School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
&
Daniel M Weinberger3 Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale University School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
Pages 1167-1175 | Received 10 Jun 2022, Accepted 28 Sep 2022, Published online: 18 Oct 2022

References

  • Burnham KA. Model Selection and Multimodel Inference. 2nd ed. Springer-Verlag; 2002.
  • Clemens JD, Shapiro ED. Resolving the pneumococcal vaccine controversy: are there alternatives to randomized clinical trials? Rev Infect Dis. 1984;6(5):589–600. doi:10.1093/clinids/6.5.589
  • Shapiro ED. Case-control studies of the effectiveness of vaccines: validity and assessment of potential bias. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2004;23(2):127–131. doi:10.1097/01.inf.0000109248.32907.1d
  • Breslow NE. Statistics in epidemiology: the case-control study. J Am Stat Assoc. 1996;91(433):14–28. doi:10.1080/01621459.1996.10476660
  • Robinson LJ, Jewell NP. Some surprising results about covariate adjustment in logistic regression models. Int Stat Rev. 1991;59(2):227–240. doi:10.2307/1403444
  • Greenland S. Quantifying biases in causal models: classical confounding vs collider-stratification bias. Epidemiology. 2003;14(3):300–306. doi:10.1097/01.EDE.0000042804.12056.6C
  • Kevin CKB, Rueda R, Rueda MR. Omitted variables, countervailing effects, and the possibility of overadjustment. Political Sci Res Methods. 2018;6(2):343–354. doi:10.1017/psrm.2016.46
  • Schisterman EF, Cole SR, Platt RW. Overadjustment bias and unnecessary adjustment in epidemiologic studies. Epidemiology. 2009;20(4):488–495. doi:10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181a819a1
  • Derksen SK, Keselman HJ. Backward, forward and stepwise automated subset selection algorithms: frequency of obtaining authentic and noise variables. Br J Math Stat Psychol. 1992;45:465. doi:10.1111/j.2044-8317.1992.tb00992.x
  • Wu Z, Zhao H. Statistical power of model selection strategies for genome-wide association studies. PLoS Genet. 2009;5(7):e1000582. doi:10.1371/journal.pgen.1000582
  • Hoeting JA, Davis RA, Merton AA, Thompson SE. Model selection for geostatistical models. Ecol Appl. 2006;16(1):87–98. doi:10.1890/04-0576
  • Kurum E, Warren JL, Schuck-Paim C, et al. Bayesian model averaging with change points to assess the impact of vaccination and public health interventions. Epidemiology. 2017;28(6):889–897. doi:10.1097/EDE.0000000000000719
  • Jackson ML, Ferdinands J, Nowalk MP, et al. Differences between Frequentist and Bayesian inference in routine surveillance for influenza vaccine effectiveness: a test-negative case-control study. BMC Public Health. 2021;21(1):516. doi:10.1186/s12889-021-10543-z
  • Viallefont V, Raftery AE, Richardson S. Variable selection and Bayesian model averaging in case-control studies. Stat Med. 2001;20(21):3215–3230. doi:10.1002/sim.976
  • Wang D, Zhang W, Bakhai A. Comparison of Bayesian model averaging and stepwise methods for model selection in logistic regression. Stat Med. 2004;23(22):3451–3467. doi:10.1002/sim.1930
  • Raftery AE. Approximate Bayes factors and accounting for model uncertainty in generalised linear models. Biometrika. 1996;83(2):251–266. doi:10.1093/biomet/83.2.251
  • Oliveira CM, Vazquez M. Clinical effectiveness of Lyme vaccine: a matched case-control study. Open Forum Infect Dis. 2021;21:319. doi:10.1093/ofid/ofab142
  • Niccolai LM, Ogden LG, Muehlenbein CE, Dziura JD, Vazquez M, Shapiro ED. Methodological issues in design and analysis of a matched case-control study of a vaccine’s effectiveness. J Clin Epidemiol. 2007;60(11):1127–1131. doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2007.02.009
  • Oliveira CR, Niccolai LM, Sheikha H, et al. Assessment of clinical effectiveness of BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine in US adolescents. JAMA Netw Open. 2022;5(3):e220935. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.0935
  • Williams R. Step we gaily, on we go. Stata J. 2007;7(2):272–274. doi:10.1177/1536867X0700700212
  • Lindsey CS, Sheather S. Variable selection in linear regression. Stata J. 2010;10(4):650–669. doi:10.1177/1536867X1101000407
  • Raftery AE. Use and communication of probabilistic forecasts. Stat Anal Data Min. 2016;9(6):397–410. doi:10.1002/sam.11302
  • Raftery AE. Bayesian model selection in social research. Sociol Methodol. 1995;25:111–163. doi:10.2307/271063
  • Mu Y, See I, Edwards JR. Bayesian model averaging: improved variable selection for matched case-control studies. Epidemiol Biostat Public Health. 2019;16(2). doi:10.2427/13048

Related research

People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read.

Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine.

Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.
Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab.