Development of an Asthma Exacerbation Risk Prediction Model for Conversational Use by Adults in England

References

• British Lung Foundation: asthma statistics. Available from: https://statistics.blf.org.uk/asthma. Accessed March 10, 2023.
   Google Scholar
• All Party Parliamentary Group on Respiratory Health. Report on inquiry into respiratory deaths; 2014. Available from: https://www.blf.org.uk/sites/default/files/APPG-Respiratory-deaths-2014-online.pdf. Accessed March 10, 2023.
   Google Scholar
• Noble M, Burden A, Stirling S, et al. Predicting asthma-related crisis events using routine electronic healthcare data: a quantitative database analysis study. Br J Gen Pract. 2021;71(713):e948–e957. doi:10.3399/BJGP.2020.1042
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Miller MK, Lee JH, Miller DP, Wenzel SE; TENOR Study Group. Recent asthma exacerbations: a key predictor of future exacerbations. Respir Med. 2007;101(3):481–489. doi:10.1016/j.rmed.2006.07.005
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Morgan A, Maslova A, Kallis C, et al. Short-acting β2-agonists and exacerbations in children with asthma in England: SABINA Junior. ERJ Open Res. 2023:00571–2022. doi:10.1183/23120541.00571-2022
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Dales RE, Schweitzer I, Kerr P, Gougeon L, Rivington R, Draper J. Risk factors for recurrent emergency department visits for asthma. Thorax. 1995;50(5):520–524. doi:10.1136/thx.50.5.520
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Crane J, Pearce N, Burgess C, Woodman K, Robson B, Beasley R. Markers of risk of asthma death or readmission in the 12 months following a hospital admission for asthma. Int J Epidemiol. 1992;21(4):737–744. doi:10.1093/ije/21.4.737
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Emerman CL, Woodruff PG, Cydulka RK, Gibbs MA, Pollack CV, Camargo CA. Prospective multicenter study of relapse following treatment for acute asthma among adults presenting to the emergency department. MARC investigators. Multicenter Asthma Research Collaboration. Chest. 1999;115(4):919–927. doi:10.1378/chest.115.4.919
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McCarren M, McDermott MF, Zalenski RJ, et al. Prediction of relapse within eight weeks after an acute asthma exacerbation in adults. J Clin Epidemiol. 1998;51(2):107–118. doi:10.1016/s0895-4356(97)00246-1
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Laranjo L, Dunn AG, Tong HL, et al. Conversational agents in healthcare: a systematic review. J Am Med Inform Assoc. 2018;25(9):1248–1258. doi:10.1093/jamia/ocy072
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reddel HK, Taylor DR, Bateman ED, et al. American Thoracic Society/European Respiratory Society Task Force on Asthma Control and Exacerbations. An official American Thoracic Society/European Respiratory Society statement: asthma control and exacerbations: standardizing endpoints for clinical asthma trials and clinical practice. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2009;180(1):59–99. doi:10.1164/rccm.200801-060ST
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Loymans RJ, Honkoop PJ, Termeer EH, et al. Identifying patients at risk for severe exacerbations of asthma: development and external validation of a multivariable prediction model. Thorax. 2016;71(9):838–846. Erratum in: Thorax. 2018 Aug;73(8):795–796. Corrected abstract. doi:10.1136/thoraxjnl-2015-208138
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lisspers K, Ställberg B, Larsson K, et al. Developing a short-term prediction model for asthma exacerbations from Swedish primary care patients’ data using machine learning - Based on the Arctic study. Respir Med. 2021;185:106483. doi:10.1016/j.rmed.2021.106483
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• de Hond AAH, Kant IMJ, Honkoop PJ, Smith AD, Steyerberg EW, Sont JK. Machine learning did not beat logistic regression in time series prediction for severe asthma exacerbations. Sci Rep. 2022;12(1):20363. doi:10.1038/s41598-022-24909-9
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Lugogo NL, DePietro M, Reich M, et al. A predictive machine learning tool for asthma exacerbations: results from a 12-week, open-label study using an electronic multi-dose dry powder inhaler with integrated sensors. J Asthma Allergy. 2022;15:1623–1637. doi:10.2147/JAA.S377631
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Calvo RA, Peters D, Moradbakhti L, et al. Assessing the feasibility of a text-based conversational agent for asthma support: protocol for a mixed methods observational study. JMIR Res Protoc. 2023;12:e42965. doi:10.2196/42965
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wolf A, Dedman D, Campbell J, et al. Data resource profile: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum. Int J Epidemiol. 2019;48(6):1740–1740g. doi:10.1093/ije/dyz034
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA). Global strategy for asthma management and prevention (2020 Update); 2020. Available from: https://ginasthma.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/GINA-2020-report_20_06_04-1-wms.pdf. Accessed September 28, 2023.
   Google Scholar
• Reddel HK, Bateman ED, Becker A, et al. A summary of the new GINA strategy: a roadmap to asthma control. Eur Respir J. 2015;46(3):622–639. doi:10.1183/13993003.00853-2015
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bloom CI, Nissen F, Douglas IJ, Smeeth L, Cullinan P, Quint JK. Exacerbation risk and characterisation of the UK’s asthma population from infants to old age. Thorax. 2018;73(4):313–320. doi:10.1136/thoraxjnl-2017-210650
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shah SA, Quint JK, Nwaru BI, Sheikh A. Impact of COVID-19 national lockdown on asthma exacerbations: interrupted time-series analysis of English primary care data. Thorax. 2021;76(9):860–866. Erratum in: Thorax. 2023 Sep;78(9):e3. doi:10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-216512
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shah SA, Quint JK, Sheikh A. Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on asthma exacerbations: retrospective cohort study of over 500,000 patients in a national English primary care database. Lancet Reg Health Eur. 2022;19:100428. doi:10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100428
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Quint JK, Arnetorp S, Kocks JWH, et al.; SABINA North American and European Study contributors. Short-Acting Beta-2-Agonist Exposure and Severe Asthma Exacerbations: SABINA Findings From Europe and North America. J Allergy Clin Immunol Pract. 2022;10(9):2297–2309.e10. doi:10.1016/j.jaip.2022.02.047
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S, Sturdivant RX. Applied Logistic Regression. Vol. 398. John Wiley & Sons; 2013.
   Google Scholar
• Pencina MJ, D’Agostino RB Sr, D’Agostino RB Jr, Vasan RS. Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond. Stat Med. 2008;27(2):157–72; discussion 207–12. doi:10.1002/sim.2929
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Steyerberg EW, Vergouwe Y. Towards better clinical prediction models: seven steps for development and an ABCD for validation. Eur Heart J. 2014;35(29):1925–1931. doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehu207
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Van Calster B, McLernon DJ, van Smeden M, Wynants L, Steyerberg EW; Topic Group “Evaluating diagnostic tests and prediction models” of the STRATOS initiative. Calibration: the Achilles heel of predictive analytics. BMC Med. 2019;17(1):230. doi:10.1186/s12916-019-1466-7
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Van Calster B, Wynants L, Verbeek JFM, et al. Reporting and interpreting decision curve analysis: a guide for investigators. Eur Urol. 2018;74(6):796–804. doi:10.1016/j.eururo.2018.08.038
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Clinical Practice Research Datalink. CPRD Aurum February 2022 (Version 2022.02.001) [Data set]. Clinical Practice Research Datalink; 2022. doi:10.48329/gcgx-f815.
   Google Scholar
• Al-ani S, Spigt M, Hofset P, Melbye H. Predictors of exacerbations of asthma and COPD during one year in primary care. Fam Pract. 2013;30(6):621–628. doi:10.1093/fampra/cmt055
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jiao T, Schnitzer ME, Forget A, Blais L. Identifying asthma patients at high risk of exacerbation in a routine visit: a machine learning model. Respir Med. 2022;198:106866. doi:10.1016/j.rmed.2022.106866
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lowden R, Turner S. Past asthma exacerbation in children predicting future exacerbation: a systematic review. ERJ Open Res. 2022;8(4):00174–2022. doi:10.1183/23120541.00174-2022
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Kraft M, Brusselle G, FitzGerald JM, et al. Patient characteristics, biomarkers and exacerbation risk in severe, uncontrolled asthma. Eur Respir J. 2021;58(6):2100413. doi:10.1183/13993003.00413-2021
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fayon M, Beaufils F, Esteves P, et al. Bronchial remodeling-based latent class analysis predicts exacerbations in severe preschool wheezers. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2022. doi:10.1164/rccm.202205-0913OC
   Google Scholar
• Hurst JH, Zhao C, Hostetler HP, Ghiasi Gorveh M, Lang JE, Goldstein BA. Environmental and clinical data utility in pediatric asthma exacerbation risk prediction models. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2022;22(1):108. doi:10.1186/s12911-022-01847-0
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Semprini R, Williams M, Semprini A, et al. Type 2 Biomarkers and Prediction of Future Exacerbations and Lung Function Decline in Adult Asthma. J Allergy Clin Immunol Pract. 2018;6(6):1982–1988.e1. doi:10.1016/j.jaip.2018.03.004
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Xiang Y, Ji H, Zhou Y, et al. Asthma exacerbation prediction and risk factor analysis based on a time-sensitive, attentive neural network: retrospective cohort study. J Med Internet Res. 2020;22(7):e16981. doi:10.2196/16981
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Martin A, Bauer V, Datta A, et al. Development and validation of an asthma exacerbation prediction model using electronic health record (EHR) data. J Asthma. 2020;57(12):1339–1346. doi:10.1080/02770903.2019.1648505
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Blakey JD, Price DB, Pizzichini E, et al. Identifying risk of future asthma attacks using uk medical record data: a respiratory effectiveness group initiative. J Allergy Clin Immunol Pract. 2017;5(4):1015–1024.e8. doi:10.1016/j.jaip.2016.11.007
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Price DB, Rigazio A, Campbell JD, et al. Blood eosinophil count and prospective annual asthma disease burden: a UK cohort study. Lancet Respir Med. 2015;3(11):849–858. doi:10.1016/S2213-2600(15)00367-7
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Price D, Menzies-Gow A, Bachert C, et al. Association between a type 2 inflammatory disease burden score and outcomes among patients with asthma. J Asthma Allergy. 2021;14:1173–1183. doi:10.2147/JAA.S321212
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar