Supporting marine spatial planning with an ecosystem model of Algoa Bay, South Africa

References

• Ahrens RNM, Walters CJ, Christensen V. 2012. Foraging arena theory. Fish and Fisheries 13: 41–59.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alexander KA, Heymans JJ, Magill S, Tomczak MT, Holmes SJ, Wilding TA. 2015. Investigating the recent decline in gadoid stocks in the west of Scotland shelf ecosystem using a foodweb model. ICES Journal of Marine Science 72: 436–449.
   Google Scholar
• Bates AE, Cooke RSC, Duncan MI, Edgar GJ, Bruno JF, Benedetti-Cecchi L et al. 2019. Climate resilience in marine protected areas and the ‘Protection Paradox.’ Biological Conservation 236: 305–314.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Browman H, Stergiou K. 2004. Marine Protected Areas as a central element of ecosystem-based management: defining their location, size and number. Marine Ecology Progress Series 274: 271–272.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chadwick P, Duncan J, Tunley K. 2014. State of management of South Africa’s marine protected areas. WWF (World Wildlife Fund) South Africa Report Series – 2014/Marine/001. Cape Town, South Africa: WWF.
   Google Scholar
• Chalmers R. 2011. Systematic marine spatial planning and monitoring in a data-poor environment: a case study of Algoa Bay, South Africa. PhD thesis, Rhodes University, South Africa.
   Google Scholar
• Chalmers R, Oosthuizen A, Götz A, Paterson A, Sauer WHH. 2014. Assessing the suitability of commercial fisheries data for local-scale marine spatial planning in South Africa. African Journal of Marine Science 36: 467–480.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Christensen V, Walters CJ. 2004. Ecopath with Ecosim: methods, capabilities and limitations. Ecological Modelling 172: 109–139.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Christensen V, Walters CJ, Pauly D. 2005. Ecopath with Ecosim: a user’s guide. Vancouver, Canada: Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia.
   Google Scholar
• Christensen V, Walters CJ, Pauly D, Forrest R. 2008. Ecopath with Ecosim version 6. User guide. Lenfest Ocean Futures Project. Washington DC: Lenfest Ocean Program. Available at https://repository.oceanbestpractices.org/bitstream/handle/11329/498/Ewe%20User%20Guide%206.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y.
   Google Scholar
• Claudet J, Bopp L, Cheung WWL, Devillers R, Escobar-Briones E, Haugan P et al. 2020. A roadmap for using the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development in Support of Science, Policy, and Action. One Earth 2: 34–42.
   Google Scholar
• Coll M, Steenbeek J. 2017. Standardized ecological indicators to assess aquatic food webs: the ECOIND software plug-in for Ecopath with Ecosim models. Environmental Modelling and Software 89: 120–130.
   Google Scholar
• Coll M, Palomera I, Tudela S, Dowd M. 2008. Food-web dynamics in the South Catalan Sea ecosystem (NW Mediterranean) for 1978–2003. Ecological Modelling 217: 95–116.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Coll M, Bundy A, Shannon LJ. 2009. Ecosystem modelling using the Ecopath with Ecosim approach. In: Megrey BA, Moksness E (eds), Computers in fisheries research. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer Netherlands. pp 225–291.
   Google Scholar
• Corrales X, Ofir E, Coll M, Goren M, Edelist D, Heymans JJ et al. 2017. Modeling the role and impact of alien species and fisheries on the Israeli marine continental shelf ecosystem. Journal of Marine Systems 170: 88–102.
   Google Scholar
• Costalago D, Potter P, Pattrick P, Strydom NA. 2018. Influence of environmental variables on the larval stages of anchovy, Engraulis encrasicolus, and sardine, Sardinops sagax, in Algoa Bay, South Africa. Environmental Biology of Fishes 101: 225–236.
   Google Scholar
• Crawford RJM, Altwegg R, Barham BJ, Barham PJ, Durant JM, Dyer BM et al. 2011. Collapse of South Africa’s penguins in the early 21st century. African Journal of Marine Science 33: 139–156.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Crawford RJM, Makhado AB, Waller LJ, Whittington PA. 2014. Winners and losers – responses to recent environmental change by South African seabirds that compete with purse-seine fisheries for food. Ostrich 85: 111–117.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Crowder LB, Hazen EL, Avissar N, Bjorkland R, Latanich C, Ogburn MB. 2008. The impacts of fisheries on marine ecosystems and the transition to ecosystem-based management. The Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 39: 259–278.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Darwall WRT, Allison EH, Turner GF, Irvine K. 2010. Lake of flies, or lake of fish? A trophic model of Lake Malawi. Ecological Modelling 221: 713–727.
   Google Scholar
• de Moor C. 2019. Progress towards updating the assessment of the South African sardine resource using data from 1984–2018. Report No. FISHERIES/2019/NOV/SWG-PEL/29. Cape Town, South Africa: Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.
   Google Scholar
• Dimarchopoulou D, Keramidas I, Tsagarakis K, Tsikliras AC. 2019. Ecosystem models and effort simulations of an untrawled gulf in the central Aegean Sea. Frontiers in Marine Science 6: article 648.
   Google Scholar
• Dorrington RA, Lombard AT, Bornman TG, Adams JB, Cawthra HC, Deyzel SHP et al. 2018. Working together for our oceans: a marine spatial plan for Algoa Bay, South Africa. South African Journal of Science 114: a0247.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Edgar G, Russ G, Babcock R. 2007. Marine protected areas. Marine Ecology (Berlin) 27: 533–555.
   Google Scholar
• Foley MM, Halpern BS, Micheli F, Armsby MH, Caldwell MR, Crain CM et al. 2010. Guiding ecological principles for marine spatial planning. Marine Policy 34: 955–966.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fulton EA. 2010. Approaches to end-to-end ecosystem models. Journal of Marine Systems 81: 171–183.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Garcia SM, Zerbi A, Aliaume C, Do Chi T, Lasserre G. 2003. The ecosystem approach to fisheries. Issues, terminology, principles, institutional foundations, implementation and outlook. FAO Fisheries Technical Paper No. 443. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
   Google Scholar
• Goschen WS, Schumann EH. 1988. Ocean current and temperature structures in Algoa Bay and beyond in November 1986. South African Journal of Marine Science 7: 101–116.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Goschen WS, Schumann EH. 2011. The physical oceanographic processes of Algoa Bay, with emphasis on the western coastal region. Institute of Maritime Technology (IMT) Document No. PO106-10000-730002. Pretoria and Cape Town, South Africa: South African Environmental Observation Network (SAEON) and IMT.
   Google Scholar
• Halpern BS. 2003. The impact of marine reserves: do reserves work and does reserve size matter? Ecological Applications 13: 117–137.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Heymans JJ, Cole M, Link JS, Mackinson S, Steenbeek J, Walters C, Christensen V. 2016. Best practice in Ecopath with Ecosim food-web models for ecosystem-based management. Ecological Modelling 331: 173–184.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Heymans JJ, Bundy A, Christensen V, Coll M, de Mutsert K, Fulton EA et al. 2020. The Ocean Decade: a true ecosystem modeling challenge. Frontiers in Marine Science 7: article 554573.
   Google Scholar
• Hoenig J. 1983. Empirical use of longevity data to estimate mortality rates. US National Marine Fisheries Service Fishery Bulletin 81: 898–903.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Innes S, Lavigne DM, Earle WM, Kovacs KM. 1987. Feeding rates of seals and whales. Journal of Animal Ecology 56: 115–130.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Karczmarski L, Cockcroft VG, McLachlan A. 1999. Group size and seasonal pattern of occurrence of humpback dolphins Sousa chinensis in Algoa Bay, South Africa. South African Journal of Marine Science 21: 89–97.
   Google Scholar
• Leslie HM, McLeod KL. 2007. Confronting the challenges of implementing marine ecosystem-based management. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 5: 540–548.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Link JS. 2010. Adding rigor to ecological network models by evaluating a set of pre-balance diagnostics: a plea for PREBAL. Ecological Modelling 221: 1580–1591.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Link JS, Dickey-Collas M, Rudd M, McLaughlin R, Macdonald NM, Thiele T et al. 2019. Clarifying mandates for marine ecosystem- based management. ICES Journal of Marine Science 76: 41–44.
   Google Scholar
• Lockerbie EM, Shannon L. 2019. Toward exploring possible future states of the Southern Benguela. Frontiers in Marine Science 6: article 380.
   Google Scholar
• Lotze HK, Tittensor DP, Bryndum-Buchholz A, Eddy TD, Cheung WWL, Galbraith ED et al. 2019. Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 116: 12907–12912.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mackinson S, Daskalov G, Heymans JJ, Neira S, Arancibia H, Zetina-Rejón M et al. 2009. Which forcing factors fit? Using ecosystem models to investigate the relative influence of fishing and changes in primary productivity on the dynamics of marine ecosystems. Ecological Modelling 220: 2972–2987.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Melly BL, McGregor G, Hofmeyr GJG, Plön S. 2018. Spatio-temporal distribution and habitat preferences of cetaceans in Algoa Bay, South Africa. The Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom 98: 1065–1079.
   Google Scholar
• Morissette L. 2007. Complexity, cost and quality of ecosystem models and their impact on resilience: a comparative analysis, with emphasis on marine mammals and the Gulf of St. Lawrence. PhD thesis, University of British Columbia, Canada.
   Google Scholar
• Ortega-Cisneros K, Shannon L, Cochrane K, Fulton EA, Shin YJ. 2018. Evaluating the specificity of ecosystem indicators to fishing in a changing environment: a model comparison study for the southern Benguela ecosystem. Ecological Indicators 95: 85–98.
   Google Scholar
• Palomares MLD, Pauly D. 1998. Predicting food consumption of fish populations as functions of mortality, food type, morphometrics, temperature and salinity. Marine and Freshwater Research 49: 447–453.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Parker D, Coetzee JC, Winker H, van der Lingen CD. 2020. Accounting for linefish dependency in management of the South African small pelagic fishery. African Journal of Marine Science 42: 283–294.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pauly D. 1980. On the interrelationships between natural mortality, growth parameters, and mean environmental temperature in 175 fish stocks. ICES Journal of Marine Science 39: 175–192.
   Google Scholar
• Pauly D, Christensen V, Sambilay VJ. 1990. Some features of fish food consumption estimates used by ecosystem modellers. Paper No. G:17 presented during Theme Session O (Consumption rate in marine fish), ICES Council Meeting, Copenhagen, Denmark, 4–12 October 1990.
   Google Scholar
• Pauly D, Christensen V, Walters C. 2000. Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace as tools for evaluating ecosystem impact of fisheries. ICES Journal of Marine Science 57: 697–706.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Payne MR, Barange M, Cheung WWL, MacKenzie BR, Batchelder HP, Cormon X et al. 2016. Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems. ICES Journal of Marine Science 73: 1272–1282.
   Google Scholar
• Pichegru L, Grémillet D, Crawford RJM, Ryan PG. 2010. Marine no-take zone rapidly benefits endangered penguin. Biology Letters 6: 498–501.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Plagányi ÉE. 2007. Models for an ecosystem approach to fisheries. FAO Fisheries Technical Paper No. 477. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United States of America.
   Google Scholar
• Ralph M. 2008. Aspects of the breeding biology of the African penguin on Bird Island, Algoa Bay. MSc thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, South Africa.
   Google Scholar
• Randall RM, Randall BM, Batchelor AL, Ross GJB. 1981. The status of seabirds associated with islands in Algoa Bay, South Africa, 1973–1981. Marine Ornithology 9: 85–104.
   Google Scholar
• RSA (Republic of South Africa). 2019. Department of Environmental Affairs, Government Notices 757–776 declaring 20 marine protected areas in terms of Section 22A of the National Environmental Management: Protected Areas Act (Act No. 57 of 2003). Government Gazette, South Africa 647 (42478).
   Google Scholar
• Ryabinin V, Barbière J, Haugan P, Kullenberg G, Smith N, McLean C et al. 2019. The U.N. Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development. Frontiers in Marine Science 6: article 470.
   Google Scholar
• Schumann EH, Churchill JRS, Zaayman HJ. 2005. Oceanic variability in the western sector of Algoa Bay, South Africa. African Journal of Marine Science 27: 65–80.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Scott E, Serpetti N, Steenbeek J, Heymans JJ. 2016. A stepwise fitting procedure for automated fitting of Ecopath with Ecosim models. SoftwareX 5: 25–30.
   Google Scholar
• Shannon LJ, Field JG, Moloney CL. 2004. Simulating anchovy– sardine regime shifts in the southern Benguela ecosystem. Ecological Modelling 172: 269–281.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shannon L, Ortega-Cisneros K, Lamont T, Winker H, Crawford R, Jarre A et al. 2020. Exploring temporal variability in the Southern Benguela Ecosystem over the past four decades using a time-dynamic ecosystem model. Frontiers in Marine Science 7: article 540.
   Google Scholar
• Skogen M, Ji R, Akimova A, Daewel U, Hansen C, Hjøllo S et al. 2021. Disclosing the truth: are models better than observations? Marine Ecology Progress Series 680: 7–13.
   Google Scholar
• Steenbeek J, Romagnoni G, Bentley JW, Heymans JJ, Serpetti N, Gonçalves M et al. 2020. Combining ecosystem modeling with serious gaming in support of transboundary maritime spatial planning. Ecology and Society 25: article 21.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Steenbeek J, Buszowski J, Chagaris D, Christensen V, Coll M, Fulton EA et al. 2021. Making spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling better – a perspective. Environmental Modelling and Software 145: article 105209.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Tittensor DP, Eddy TD, Lotze HK, Galbraith ED, Cheung W, Barange M et al. 2018. A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0. Geoscientific Model Development 11: 1421–1442.
   Google Scholar
• Tittensor DP, Novaglio C, Harrison CS, Heneghan RF, Barrier N, Bianchi D et al. 2021. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems. Nature Climate Change 11: 973–981.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Vermeulen E. 2021. Applying a systems analysis approach to support marine spatial planning in Algoa Bay, South Africa. PhD thesis, Nelson Mandela University, South Africa.
   Google Scholar
• Walters CJ, Martell SJ. 2004. Fisheries ecology and management. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Walters C, Christensen V, Pauly D. 1997. Structuring dynamic models of exploited ecosystems from trophic mass-balance assessments. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 7: 139–172.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Walters C, Pauly D, Christensen V. 1999. Ecospace: prediction of mesoscale spatial patterns in trophic relationships of exploited ecosystems, with emphasis on the impacts of marine protected areas. Ecosystems 2: 539–554.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Walters C, Pauly D, Christensen V, Kitchell JF. 2000. Representing density dependent consequences of life history strategies in aquatic ecosystems: EcoSim II. Ecosystems (New York) 3: 70–83.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weigum E. 2019. Using seasonal mass-balanced models of the Algoa Bay ecosystem to investigate African penguin and small pelagic fish interactions. MSc thesis, University of Cape Town, South Africa.
   Google Scholar