Skill assessment of seasonal hindcasts from the Canadian historical forecast project

References

• Barnston , A. G. and Van Den Dool , H.M. 1993 . A degeneracy in cross‐validated skill in regression‐based forecasts . J. Clim. , 6 : 963 – 977 .
   Google Scholar
• Brankovic , Č. and Palmer , T. N. 2000 . Seasonal skill and predictability of ECMWF PROVOST ensembles . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , 126 : 2035 – 2067 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brier , G.W. 1950 . Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probabilities . Mon. Weather Rev. , 78 : 1 – 3 .
   Google Scholar
• Chen , D. , Zebiak , S. E. , Cane , M. A. and Busalacchi , A.J. 1997 . Initialization and predictability of a coupled ENSO forecast model . Mon. Weather Rev. , 125 : 773 – 788 .
   Google Scholar
• Côté , J. , Gravel , S. , Méthot , A. , Patoine , A. , Roch , M. and Staniforth , A. 1998 . The operational CMC‐MRB Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model: Part I ‐ Design considerations and formulation . Mon. Weather Rev. , 126 : 1373 – 1395 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Derome , J. , Brunet , G. , Plante , A. , Gagnon , N. , Boer , G. J. , Zwiers , F. W. , Lambert , S. and Ritchie , H. 2001 . Seasonal predictions based on two dynamical models . Atmosphere‐Ocean , 39 : 485 – 501 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Efron , B. 1979 . Bootstrap methods: Another look at the Jackknife . Ann. Statist. , 7 : 1 – 26 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hagedorn , R. , Doblas‐Reyes , F.J. and Palmer , T.N. 2005 . The rationale behind the success of multi‐model ensembles in seasonal forecasting ‐ I. Basic concept . Tellus , 57A : 219 – 233 .
   Google Scholar
• Higgins , R. W. , Leetmaa , A. , Xue , Y. and Barnston , A. 2000 . Dominant factors influencing the seasonal predictability of U.S. precipitation and surface air temperature . J. Clim. , 13 : 3994 – 4017 .
   Google Scholar
• Houtekamer , P. L. , Lefaivre , L. , Derome , J. , Ritchie , H. and Mitchell , H.L. 1996 . A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction . Mon. Weather Rev. , 124 : 1225 – 1242 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hsu , W.‐R. and Murphy , A.H. 1986 . The attributes diagram: A geometrical framework for assessing the quality of probability forecasts . Int. J. Forecast. , 2 : 285 – 293 .
   Google Scholar
• Jin , E.K. , Kinter , J.L. III , Wang , B. , Park , C.‐K. , Kang , I.‐S. , Kirtman , B.P. , Kug , J.‐S. , Kumar , A. , Luo , J.‐J. , Schemm , J. , Shukla , J. and Yamagata , T. 2008 . Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean‐atmosphere models . Clim. Dyn. , 31 : 647 – 664 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jolliffe , I.T. and Stephenson , D.B. , eds. 2003 . Forecast verification: a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science , 240 Chichester, UK : Wiley and Sons .
   Google Scholar
• Kalnay , E. M. , Kanamitsu , M. , Kistler , R. , Collins , W. , Deaven , D. , Gandin , L. , Iredell , M. , Saha , S. , White , G. , Woollen , J. , Zhu , Y. , Chelliah , M. , Ebisuzaki , W. , Janowiak , J. , Mo , K. C. , Ropelewski , C. , Wang , J. , Leetma , A. , Reynolds , R. , Jenne , R. and Joseph , D. 1996 . The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project . Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , 77 : 437 – 471 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kharin , V.V. , Zwiers , F.W. and Gagnon , N. 2001 . Skill of seasonal hindcasts as a function of the ensemble size . Clim. Dyn. , 17 : 835 – 843 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kharin , V.V. and Zwiers , F.W. 2002 . Climate predictions with multimodel ensembles . J. Clim. , 15 : 793 – 799 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kharin , V.V. and Zwiers , F.W. 2003 . Improved seasonal probability forecasts . J. Clim. , 16 : 1684 – 1701 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lambert , S.J. and Boer , G.J. 2001 . CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models . Clim. Dyn. , 17 : 83 – 106 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mcfarlane , N.A. , Boer , G.J. , Blanchet , J.‐P. and Lazare , M. 1992 . The Canadian Climate Centre second‐generation general circulation model and its equilibrium climate . J. Clim. , 5 : 1013 – 1044 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mcfarlane , N.A. , Scinocca , J. F. , Lazare , M. , Harvey , R. , Verseghy , D. and Li , J. 2005 . The CCCma third generation atmospheric general circulation model , CCCma Internal Rep. 25 (http://www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca/models/cgcm3.shtml)
   Google Scholar
• Molteni , F. , Buizza , R. , Palmer , T. N. and Petroliagis , T. 1996 . The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , 122 : 73 – 119 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Murphy , A.H. 1973 . A new vector partition of the probability score . J. Appl. Meteorol. , 12 : 595 – 600 .
   Google Scholar
• Palmer , T.N. and Anderson , D.L.T. 1994 . The prospects for seasonal forecasting . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , 120 : 755 – 793 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Palmer , T.N. , Alessandri , A. , Andersen , U. , Cantelaube , P. , Davey , M. , Délécluse , P. , Déqué , M. , Diez , E. , Roblas‐Reyes , J. , Feddersen , H. , Graham , R. , Gualdi , S. , Guérémy , J.‐F. , Hagedorn , R. , Hoshen , M. , Keenlyside , N. , Latif , M. , Lazar , A. , Maisonnave , E. , Marletto , V. , Morse , A. P. , Ortila , B. , Rogel , P. , Terres , J.‐M. and Thomson , M.C. 2004 . Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal‐to‐interannual prediction (DEMETER) . Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , 85 : 853 – 872 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peng , P. , Kumar , A. , Van Den Dool , H. and Barnston , A.G. 2002 . An analysis of multimodel ensemble predictions for seasonal climate anomalies . J. Geophys. Res. , 107 (D23) doi:10.1029/2002JD002712
   Google Scholar
• Reynolds , C.A. , Webster , P.J. and Kalnay , E. 1994 . Random error growth in NMC's global forecasts . Mon. Weather Rev. , 122 : 1281 – 1305 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ritchie , H. 1991 . Application of the semi‐Lagrangian method to a multilevel spectral primitive‐equations model . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , 117 : 91 – 106 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Scinocca , J. F. , Mcfarlane , N. A. , Lazare , M. , Li , J. and Plummer , D. 2008 . The CCCma third generation AGCM and its extension into the middle atmosphere . Atmos. Chem. Phys. , 8 : 7055 – 7074 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stainforth , D. A. , Aina , T. , Christensen , C. , Collins , M. , Faull , N. , Frame , D. J. , Kettleborough , J. A. , Knight , S. , Martin , A. , Murphy , J. M. , Piani , C. , Sexton , D. , Smith , L. A. , Spicer , R. A. , Thorpe , A. J. and Allen , M. R. 2005 . Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases . Nature , 433 : 403 – 406 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tracton , M. S. and Kalnay , E. 1993 . Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects . Weather Forecast. , 8 : 379 – 398 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Uppala , S.M. , Kållberg , P. W. , Simmons , A. J. , Andrae , U. , Da Costa Bechtold , V. , Fiorino , M. , Gibson , J. K. , Haseler , J. , Hernandez , A. , Kelly , G. A. , Li , X. , Onogi , K. , Saaninen , S. , Sokka , N. , Allan , R. P. , Andersson , E. , Arpe , K. , Balmaseda , M. A. , Beljaars , A. C. M. , Van De Berg , L. , Bidlot , J. , Bormann , N. , Caires , S. , Chevallier , F. , Dethof , A. , Dragosavac , M. , Fisher , M. , Fuentes , M. , Hagermann , S. , Holm , E. , Haskins , B. J. , Isaksen , L. , Janssen , P. A. E. M. , Jenne , R. , Mcnally , A. P. , Mahfouf , J.‐F. , Morcrette , J.‐J. , Raymer , N. A. , Saunders , R. W. , Simon , P. , Steri , A. , Trenberth , K. D. , Untch , A. , Vasiljevic , D. , Viterbo , P. and Woollen , J. 2005 . The ERA‐40 reanalysis . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , 131 : 2961 – 3012 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vincent , L. A. and Gullett , D.W. 1999 . Canadian historical and homogeneous temperature datasets for climate change analyses . Int. J. Climatol. , 19 : 1375 – 1388 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang , B. , Lee , J.‐Y. , Kang , I.‐S. , Shukla , J. , Park , C.‐K. , Kumar , A. , Schemm , J. , Cocke , S. , Kug , J.‐S. , Luo , J.‐J. , Zhou , T. , Wang , B. , Fu , X. , Yun , W.‐T. , Alves , O. , Jin , E. K. , Kinter , J. , Kirtman , B. , Krishnamurti , T. , Lau , N. C. , Lau , W. , Liu , P. , Pegion , P. , Rosati , T. , Schubert , S. , Stern , W. , Suarez , M. and Yamagata , T. 2008 . Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14‐model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004) . Clim. Dyn. , 33 10.1007/s00382–008‐ 0460–0
   Google Scholar
• Wilks , D.S. 1995 . Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences , 467 Academic Press .
   Google Scholar
• WMO (World Meteorological Organization) . 2002 . Standardised Verification System (SVS) for long‐range forecasts (LRF) , Volume 1 , Geneva : World Meteorological Organization . New attachment II‐9 to the manual on the GDPS (WMO‐No. 485)
   Google Scholar
• Zhang , X. L. A. , Vincent , W. D. Hogg and Niitsoo , A. 2000 . Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century . Atmosphere‐Ocean , 38 : 395 – 429 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Corresponding author's e‐mail: [email protected]
   Google Scholar