1,276
Views
13
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Technical Paper

Establishment of a Box-Jenkins Multivariate Time-Series Model to Simulate Ground-Level Peak Daily One-Hour Ozone Concentrations at Ta-Liao in Taiwan

Pages 1078-1090 | Published online: 24 Feb 2012

References

  • Seinfield, J.H.; Pandis, S.N. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics—from Air Pollution to Climate Change; John Wiley and Sons: New York, NY, 1998.
  • Lippmann, M. Health Effects of Ozone—a Critical Review; JAPCA 1989, 39, 672–695.
  • Liu, H.; Jacob, D.J.; Chan, L.Y.; Oltmans, S.J.; Bey, I.; Yantosca, R.M.; Harris, J.M.; Duncan, B.N.; Martin, R.V. Sources of Tropospheric Ozone along the Asian Pacific Rim: an Analysis of Ozonesonde Observations; J. Geophys. Res. 2002, 107, 4573–4588.
  • SAS Institute. SAS/ETS User’s Guide. SAS Institute Inc.: Cary, NC, 1995.
  • Liu, P.W.G., Johnson, R. Forecast Peak Daily Ozone Levels—I. Using a Regression with Time Series Errors Model Having a Principal Component Trigger to Fit 1991 Ozone Levels; J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc. 2002, 52, 1064–1074.
  • Air Quality Improvement; Republic of China, Environmental Protection Administration, Executive Yuan; available at http://www.epa.gov.tw/english/webezA-5/code/main2.asp?catNo=3&subcatNo=47&cat=Air%20 Pollution%20Control (accessed August 2006).
  • Chen, K.S.; Ho, Y.T.; Lai, C.H.; Tsai, Y.A.; Chen, S.-J. Trends in Concentration of Ground-Level Ozone and Meteorological Conditions during High Ozone Episodes in the Kao-Ping Airshed, Taiwan; J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc. 2004, 54, 36–48.
  • Year 2002 Final Report of Kaohsiung County Air Quality Development (in Chinese); Environmental Protection Bureau, Kaohsiung County Government, 2003.
  • Hubbard, M.C.; Cobourn, W.G. Development of a Regression Model to Forecast Ground-Level Ozone Concentration in Louisville, KY; Atmos. Environ. 1998, 32, 2637–2647.
  • Chen, K.S.; Ho, Y.T.; Lai, C.H.; Chou, Y.M. Photochemical Modeling and Analysis of Meteorological Parameters during Ozone Episodes in Kaohsiung, Taiwan; Atmos. Environ. 2003, 37, 1811–1823.
  • Wang, Z.; Sha, W.; Usda, H. Numerical Modeling of Pollutant Transport and Chemistry during a High-Ozone Event in Northern Taiwan; Tellus 2000, 52B, 1189–1205.
  • Kao, J.J.; Huang, S.S. Forecasts Using Neural Network Versus Box-Jenkins Methodology for Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Data; J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc. 2000, 50, 1047–3289.
  • Yu, T.Y.; Chang, L.F. Selection of the Scenarios of Ozone Pollution at Southern Taiwan Area Utilizing Principal Component Analysis; Atmos. Environ. 2000, 34, 4499–4509.
  • Yu, T.Y.; Chang, L.F. Screening Air Pollution Episodes by Principal Component Analysis; J. Chinese Inst. Environ. Eng. 2005, 15, 57–64.
  • Chang, M.E.; Cardelino, C. Application of the Urban Airshed Model to Forecasting Next-Day Peak Ozone Concentrations in Atlanta, Georgia;<br/>J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc. 2000, 50, 2010–2024.
  • Wu, Y.L., Tsai, D.M. The Simulation of Photochemical Reactions in Southern Taiwan by Models-3/CMAQ; In: Proceeding of 2001 Air Quality Modeling Technology Conference (in Chinese), ROC EPA and EPB Kaohsiung City Government: 2001; pp 155–165.
  • Comrie, A.C. Comparing Neural Networks and Regression Models for Ozone Forecasting; J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc. 1997, 47, 653–663.
  • Yi, J.; Prybutok, V.R. A Neural Network Model Forecasting for Prediction of Daily Maximum Ozone Concentration in an Industrial Urban Area; Environ. Pollut. 1996, 92, 349–357.
  • Comrie, A.C. The Climatology of Surface Ozone in Rural Areas: a Conceptual Model; Prog. Phys. Geog. 1990, 14, 295–316.
  • Comrie, A.C.; Yarnal, B. Relationships between Synoptic-Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Ozone Concentrations in Metropolitan Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; Atmos. Environ. 1992, 26B, 301–312.
  • Flaum, J.B.; Rao, S.T.; Zurbenko, I.G. Moderating the Influence of Meteorological Conditions on Ambient Ozone Concentrations; J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc. 1996, 46, 35–46.
  • Rao, S.T.; Zalewsky, E.; Zurbenko, I.G. Determining Temporal and Spatial Variations in Ozone Air Quality; J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc. 1995, 45, 57–61.
  • Rao, S.T.; Zurbenko, I.G. Detecting and Tracking Changes in Ozone Air Quality; J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc. 1994, 44, 1089–1092.
  • Rao, S.T.; Zurbenko, I.G.; Porter, P.S.; Ku, J.Y.; Henry, R.F. Dealing with the Ozone Non-Attainment Problem in the Eastern United States. EM 1996, June, 17–31.
  • Sheppard, P.R.; Comrie, A.C.; Packin, G.D.; Angersbach, K.; Hughes, M.K. The Climate of the U.S. Southwest; Clim. Res. 2002, 21, 219–238.
  • Yang, K. Spatial and Seasonal Variation of PM10 Mass Concentrations in Taiwan; Atmos. Environ. 2002, 36, 3403–3411.
  • Plessow, K.; Spindler, G.; Zimmermann, F.; Matschullat, J. Seasonal Variations and Interactions of N-Containing Gases and Particles over a Coniferous Forest, Saxony, Germany; Atmos. Environ. 2005, 39, 6995–7007.
  • Walker, J.T.; Robarge, W.P.; Shendrikar, A.; Kimball, H. Inorganic PM2.5 at a U.S. Agricultural Site. Environ. Poll. 2006, 139, 258–271.
  • Chen, S.J.; Hsieh, L.T.; Tsai, C.C.; Fang, G.C. Characterization of Atmospheric PM10 and Related Chemical Species in Southern Taiwan during the Episode Days; Chemosphere. 2003, 53, 29–41.
  • Box, G.E.P.; Jenkins, G.M.; Reinsel, G.C. Time Series Analysis— Forecasting and Control; 3rd ed.; Prentice-Hall: Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1994.
  • Pankratz, A. Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models— Concepts and Cases; John Wiley & Sons, Inc: New York, 1983.
  • Prior, E.J.; Schiess, J.R.; McDougal, D.S.; Approach to Forecasting Daily Maximum Ozone Levels in St. Louis; Environ. Sci. Tech. 1981, 15, 430–436.
  • Cobourn, W.G.; Hubbard, M.C. Non-Linear Regression and Trajectory Analysis Applied to Ozone Forecasting in Louisville, Kentucky; In Proceedings of the 92nd Annual Meeting of the A&WMA, St. Louis, MO, June 20–24, 1999; A&WMA: Pittsburgh, 1999.
  • Johnson, R.; Wichern, D.W. Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis. Prentice Hall: Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1992.
  • SAS Institute. SAS/ETS Software: Applications Guide 1 Version 6, 1st ed.: Time Series Modeling and Forecasting, Financial Reporting, and Loan Analysis. SAS Institute Inc.: Cary, NC, 1991.
  • Milionis, A.E.; Davies, T.D. Regression and Stochastic Models for Air Pollution—I. Review, Comments and Suggestions. Atmos. Environ. 1994, 28, 2801–2810.
  • Milionis, A.E.; Davies, T.D. Regression and Stochastic Models for Air Pollution—II. Application of Stochastic Models to Examine the Links between Ground-Level Smoke Concentrations and Temperature Inversions; Atmos. Environ. 1994, 28, 2811–2822.
  • Salcedo, R.L.R., Alvim Ferraz, M.C.M., Alves, C.A.; Marins, F.G. Time-Series Analysis of Air Pollution Data; Atmos. Environ. 1999, 33, 2361–2372.
  • Connell, D.P.; Withum, J.A.; Winter, S.E.; Statnick, R.M.; Bilonick, R.A.; The Steubenville Comprehensive Air Monitoring Program (SCAMP): Overview and Statistical Considerations; J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc. 2005, 55, 467–480.
  • Liu, P.W.G.; Johnson, R. Forecasting Peak Daily Ozone Levels: Part 2—a Regression with Time Series Errors Model Having a Principal Component Trigger to Forecast 1999 and 2002 Ozone Levels; J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc. 2003, 53, 1472–1489.
  • Bloomfield, P.; Royle, J.A.; Steinberg, L.J.; Yang, Q.; Accounting for Meteorological Effects in Measuring Urban Ozone Levels and Trends; Atmos. Environ. 1996, 30, 3067–3077.
  • Feister, U.; Balzer, K. Surface Ozone and Meteorological Predictors on a Subregional Scale; Atmos. Environ. 1991, 25A, 1781–1790.
  • Lengyel, A.; Heberger, K.; Paksy, L.; Banhidi, O.; Rajko, R. Prediction of Ozone Concentration in Ambient Air Using Multivariate Methods; Chemosphere 2004, 57, 889–896.
  • SAS Institute. SAS/STAT User’s Guide, Version 6, 4th ed.; SAS Institute Inc.: Cary, NC, Vol. 1, 1990.
  • Ryan, W.F. Forecasting Severe Ozone Episodes in the Baltimore Metropolitan Area; Atmos. Environ. 1995, 29, 2387–2398.
  • Guideline for Developing an Ozone Forecasting Program; EPA-454/R-99-009; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards: Research Triangle Park, NC, 1999.
  • Robeson, S.M.; Steyn, D.G. Evaluation and Comparison of Statistical Forecast Models for Daily Maximum Ozone Concentrations; Atmos. Environ. 1990, 24B, 303–312.
  • Wilks, D.S. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences; Academic Press: San Diego, CA, 1995; pp 275–276.
  • Jorquera, H.; Perez, R.; Cipriano, A.; Espejo, A.; Letelier, M.V.; Acuna,<br/>G. Forecasting Ozone Daily Maximum Levels at Santiago, Chile; Atmos. Environ. 1998, 32, 3415–3424.
  • Cox, W.M.; Tikvary, J.A. A Statistical Procedure for Determining the Best Performing Air Quality Simulation Model. Atmos. Environ. 1990, 24A, 2387–2395.
  • Simpson, R.W.; Layton, A.P. Forecasting Peak Ozone Levels; Atmos. Environ. 1983, 17, 1649–1654.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.