Publication Cover
Transportation Letters
The International Journal of Transportation Research
Volume 3, 2011 - Issue 4
82
Views
3
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original

Induced traffic prediction inaccuracies as a source of traffic forecasting failure

Pages 253-264 | Published online: 07 Sep 2013

REFERENCES

  • Akritidis, Ch. (2007). Application of the controlled parking system in the Municipality of Athens. Presentation in the Workshop "Use-based charging for road infrastructure", organized by the Hellenic Institute of Transportation Engineers, Athens, March 15,2007 (in Greek).
  • Arentze, T., F. Hofman, H. van Mourik, and H. Timmermans (2000). ALBATROSS: Multiagent, rule-based model of activity pattern decisions. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1706, pp. 136–144, Washington, DC.
  • Ashley, D.J. (1980). Uncertainty in the context of highway appraisal. Transportation. 9,249–267.
  • Beser Hugosson, M. (2005). Quantifying uncertainties in a national forecasting model. Transportation Research Part A. 39(6), pp. 531–547.
  • Bhat, C., J. Guo, S. Srinivasan, and A. Sivakumar (2004). Comprehensive econometric microsimulator for daily activity-travel patterns. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1894, pp. 57–66, Washington, DC.
  • Boyce, A.M. (1999). Risk analysis for privately funded trans-port schemes. Paper presented at the European Transport Conference.
  • Boyce, A.M. and Bright, M.J. (2003). Reducing or managing the forecasting risk in privately-financed projects. Paper presented at the European Transport Conference.
  • Bowman. J. and M. Ben-Akiva (1999). "The day activity sched-ule approach to travel demand analysis." Proceedings of the 78th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
  • Bradley, M., J. Bowman, T. K. Lawton, M. Ben-Akiva, T. Rossi and Y. Shiftan (1998). "A System of Activity-Based Models for Portland, Oregon." Report prepared for the Federal Highway Administration Travel Model Improvement Program. Washington, D.C.
  • Bradley, M. J. Bowman, and T. K. Lawton (1999), "A Comparison of Sample Enumeration and Stochastic Microsimulation for Application of Tour-Based and Activity-Based Travel Demand Models." Presented at the European Transport Conference. Cambridge, England.
  • Cambridge Systematics (1994), The Effects of Land Use and Travel Demand Management Strategies on Commuting Behavior, Travel Model Improvement Program, USDOT (www.bts.gov/tmip).
  • Chorianopoulos, I., T. Pagonis, S. Koukoulas and S. Drymoniti (2010). Planning, competitiveness and sprawl in the Mediterranean city: The case of Athens. Cities, 27, pp. 249–259.
  • Chu, X. (2000). Highway Capacity and Areawide Congestion. Proceedings of the 79th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board. National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
  • Crane, R. (2000). The Influence of Urban Form on Travel: An Interpretive Review. Journal of Planning Literature 15, no. 1: 3–23.
  • Daly, A. J. and Ortuzar, J. d. D. (1990), "Forecasting and data aggregation: theory and practice," Traffic engineering er control, Vol. 31, pp. 632–643.
  • de Jong, G., A. Daly, M. Pieters, S. Miller, R. Plasmeijer and F. Hofman. (2007). Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for the Netherlands. Transportation, 34, pp. 375–395.
  • Felsenstein, D., K. Axhausen and P. Waddell (2010). Land Use-Transportation Modeling with UrbanSim: Experiences and Progress. The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 1–3. (https://www.jflu.org/index.php/jflu/article/view/183/127)
  • Flyvbjerg, B., M. K. Skamris Holm, and S. L. Buhl (2006). Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts. Transport Reviews, Vol. 26, No. 1, 1–24, January 2006.
  • Frank, L. and G. Pivo, "Impacts of Mixed Use and Density on Utilization of Three Modes of Travel: SOV, Transit and Walking," Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1466, 1995, pp. 44–55.
  • Fulton, L. M., D. J. Meszler, R. B. Noland, and J. V. Thomas (2000). A Statistical Analysis of Induced Effects in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region. Proceedings of the 79th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2000.
  • Goodwin, P. B. (1996). Empirical evidence of induced traffic: A review and synthesis. Transportation, Vol. 23, No. 1, pp. 35–54.
  • Han, J., Y. Hayashi, X. Cao and H. Imura (2009). Evaluating Land-Use Change in Rapidly Urbanizing China: Case Study of Shanghai. ASCE Journal of Urban Planning and Development, Volume 135, Issue 4, pp. 133–173.
  • Hansen, M. and Y. Huang. Road supply and traffic in California urban areas. Transportation Research A, Vol. 31,1997, pp. 205–218.
  • Horowitz, J. and Emslie, R. (1978), "Comparison of mea-sured and actual traffic volumes on urban interstate highways," Transportation Research, Vol. 12, Pergamon Press, pp. 29–32.
  • Hunt, D. and A. Brownlee (2001), Influences on the Quantity of Auto Use, Proceedings of the 80th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
  • JHK & Associates (1995), Transportation-Related Land Use Strategies to Minimize Motor Vehicle Emissions, California Air Resources Board (www.arb.ca.gov/link-age/study.htm).
  • Johnston, R. A. and M. C. McCoy (2006). Assessment of Integrated Transportation/Land Use Models. Final Report, 30 June 2006, Information Center for the Environment, Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis.
  • Kim, D-S (2007). Location Modeling of Population and Land-Use Change in Rural Area by New Expressway. ASCE Journal of Urban Planning and Development, Vol. 133, No. 3, pp. 201–210.
  • Kitamura, R., C. Chen, R. Pendyala, and R. Narayanan (2000). Micro-simulation of daily activity-travel patterns for travel demand forecasting. Transportation, 27: 25–51.
  • Litman, T.A. (2005). Land Use Impacts on Transport. How Land Use Factors Affect Travel Behavior. Victoria Transport Policy Institute. ( available online: http://www.dot.wisconsin.gov/localgov/docs/victoria-transport.pdf)
  • Mackinder, I.H. and Evans, R. (1981) "The Predictive Accuracy of British Transport Studies in Urban Areas." SR 699, Transport and Road Research Laboratory. Crowthorne, Berkshire.
  • Mahmassani, H. (1984), "Uncertainty in transportation sys-tems evaluation: issues and approaches," Transportation planning and technology, Vol. 9, Taylor & Francis, pp. 1–12.
  • McNally, M. (2000), The activity-based approach. In: Handbook of Transport Modeling, D.A. Hensher and K.J. Button (eds). Emerald Group Publishing.
  • Milakis, D., T. Vlastos and N. Barbopoulos (2008). Relationships between Urban Form and Travel Behavior in Athens, Greece. A comparison with Western European and North American Results. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, 8(3), pp. 201–215.
  • Niles, J. and Nelson, D. (2001), 'Identifying uncertainties in forecasts of travel demand'. URL: http://www.globaltele-matics.com/NilesNelson2001.pdf
  • Noland, R. and Lem, L. (2000), "Induced travel: A review of recent literature and the implications for transpor-tation and environmental policy," Appraisal of Road Transport Initiatives: Proceedings of Seminar D Held at the European Transport Conference. (www.cts.cv.ic.ac.uk/staff/wp2-noland.pdf).
  • Noland, R. B. and W. A. Cowart (2000). Analysis of Metropolitan Highway Capacity and the Growth in Vehicle Miles of Travel. Proceedings of the 79th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board. National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
  • Noland, R. (2001), "Relationships between highway capac-ity and induced vehicle travel," Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 35, Elsevier, pp. 47–72.
  • Page, J., Levenson, M. and Stewart, B. (1981), Twin Cities forecasting accuracy study, Minnesota Dept. of Transportation, [St. Paul, Minn.].
  • Parthasarathi, Pavithra and David Levinson (2010) Post-Construction Evaluation of Traffic Forecast Accuracy. Transport Policy 17 (2010) p. 428–443
  • Pell C.M. and Meyburg A.H. (1985) Sources of error and their implications for uncertainty in urban trans-portation planning forecasts. Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
  • Pendyala, R., R. Kitamura, A. Kikuchi, T. Yamamoto, and S. Fujii (2005). Florida activity mobility simulator: Overview and preliminary validation results. Transportation
  • Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1921, pp. 123–130, Washington, DC, 2005.
  • Ravulaparthy, S. and K. G. Goulias (2011). Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration. Final Report UCTC-FR-2011-07, University of California Transportation Center, May 2011.
  • Rickert, M. and K. Nagel (2001). Dynamic traffic assignment on parallel computers in TRANSIMS. Future Generation Computers Systems, 17(5):637–648.
  • Rodier, C.J., J.E. Abraham and R.A. Johnston (2001). "Anatomy of Induced Travel Using An Integrated Land Use and Transportation model in the Sacramento Region." Proceedings of the 80th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
  • Rodier, C. J. (2004). Verifying the accuracy of regional models used in transportation and air quality planning: A case study in the Sacramento, California, Region. Proceedings of the 83rd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., January.
  • Rodier, C.J. (2005). Proceedings of the 84th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
  • Rosenbaum, A. S. and B. E. Koenig (1997), Evaluation of Modelling Tools for Assessing Land Use Policies and Strategies, Office of Mobile Sources, USEPA (www.epa.gov/oms/transp/publicat/pub_sust.htm), August.
  • Sammer, G. (2006). The gap between theory and application when modeling transport - The necessity of quality stan-dards. Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research, Kyoto, 16–20 August.
  • Schiffer, R.G., M. W. Steinvorth and R. T. Milam (2005). Comparative Evaluations on the Elasticity of Travel Demand. Wasatch Front Regional Council (WFRC) Model Sensitivity Testing and Training Study. Proceedings of the 84th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
  • Shiftan, Y. (2008). The use of activity-based modeling to ana-lyze the effect of land-use policies on travel behavior. The Annals of Regional Science, Springer.
  • Talvitie, A., Dehghani, Y. and Anderson, M. (1982), "An investigation of prediction errors in work trip mode choice models," Transportation Research A, Vol. 16, pp. 395–402.
  • Timmermans, H.J.,T.A. Arentze, M. Dijst, E. Dugundji, J. Chang-Hyeon„ L. Kapoen, S. Krijgsman, K. Maat, and J. Veldhuisen (2002). Amadeus: A framework for develop-ing a dynamic multiagent, multi-period, activity-based micro-simulation model of travel demand. Proceedings of the 81st Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.
  • USEPA (2001), Our Built and Natural Environments: A Technical Review of the Interactions Between Land Use, Transportation and Environmental Quality, US Environmental Protection Agency (www.epa.gov/smart-growth/pdf/built.pdf).
  • Waddell, P., M. Outwater, C. Bhat, and L. Blain (2002). Design of an Integrated Land Use and Activity-Based Travel Model System for the Puget Sound Region. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Volume 1805, pp. 108–118.
  • Waddell, P. A., L. Wang, and B. Charlton (2008). Integration of a parcel-level land use model and an activity-based travel model. Proceedings of the 87th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2008.
  • Waddell, P., L. Wang, B. Charlton and A. Olsen (2010). Microsimulating parcel-level land use and activity-based travel. The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 65–84. (https://www.jdu.org/index.php/jdu/article/view/124/121)
  • Wegener, M. and F. Fuerst (1999). Land-Use Transport Interaction: State of the Art. Deliverable 2a of the project TRANSLAND (Integration of Transport and Land Use Planning) of the 4th RTD Framework Programme of the European Commission. Institute fur Raumplanung, Universitaet Dortmund.
  • Vythoulkas, P. (2006). Car Ownership and Household Transport Expenditure in Greece. C05T355 WG2 - Piraeus Meeting - 18–19 April 2006
  • Zhao, Y., Kockelman, K.M. (2002). The propagation of uncertainty through travel demand models: an explor-atory analysis. Annals of Regional Science. 361,145–163.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.