103
Views
3
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Long-range forecast of the break and active summer monsoons

&
Pages 133-150 | Received 08 May 1987, Accepted 23 Jul 1987, Published online: 15 Dec 2016

References

  • Alexander, G., Keshavamurty, R. N., De, U. S., Cheppala, R., Das, S. K. and Pillai, P. V. 1978. Fluctuations of monsoon activity. Indian J. Meteorol. Hydrol. Geophys. 29, 76–87.
  • Anderson, J. R., Stevens, D. E. and Julian, P. R. 1984. Temporal variations of the tropical 40-50 day oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 112, 2431–2438.
  • Bennett, R. J. 1979. Spatial time series. Analysis. Fore-casting Control. Pion Limited, London, 674 pp.
  • Box, G. E. and Jenkins, G. M. 1976. Time series analyses. Forecasting and control. Holden-Day Editor, 575 pp.
  • Cadet, D. L. and Diehl, B. C. 1984. Interannual variability of surface fields over the Indian Ocean during recent decades. Mon. Wea. Rev. 111, 1921–1935.
  • Cadet, D. L. 1986. Fluctuations of precipitable water over the Indian Ocean during the 1979 summer monsoon. Tellus 38A, 170–177.
  • Delleur, J. W. and Kavvas, M. L. 1978. Stochastic models from monthly rainfall forecasting and synthetic generation. J. Appl. Meteorol. 17, 1528–1536.
  • Fieux, M. and Stommel, H. 1977. Onset of the south-west monsoon over the Arabian Sea from marine reports of surface winds: structure and variability. Mon. Wea. Rev. 105, 231–236.
  • Katz, R. W. and Skaggs, R. H. 1981. On the use of autoregressive-moving average processes to model meteorological time series. Mon. Wea. Rev. 109, 479–484.
  • Knutson, T. R., Weickmann, K. M. and Kutzbach, J. E. 1986. Global-scale intraseasonal oscillations of outgoing long wave radiation and 250 mb zonal wind during northern hemisphere summer. Mon. Wea. Rev. 114, 605–623.
  • Krishnamurti, T. N. and Bhalme, H. N. 1976, Oscillations of a monsoon system. Part I: observational aspects. J. Atmos. Sci. 33, 1937–1954.
  • Krishnamurti, T. N. and Ardanuy, P. 1980. The 10 to 20 day westward propagating mode and “breaks in the monsoons”. Tellus 32, 15.26.
  • Krishnamurti, T. N. and Subrahmanyam, D. 1982. The 30-50 day mode at 850 mb during MONEX. J. Atmos. Sci. 39, 2088–2095.
  • Krishnamurti, T. N., Jayakumar, P. K., Sheng, J., Surgi, N. and Kumar, A. 1985. Divergent circulations on the 30 to 50 day time scale. J. Atmos. Sci. 42, 364–375.
  • Krishnamurti, T. N. and Gadgil, S. 1985. On the structure of the 30 to 50 day mode over the globe during FGGE. Tellus 37A, 336–360.
  • Kung, E. C. and Sharif, T. A. 1980. Regression fore-casting of the onset of the Indian summer monsoon with antecedent upper air conditions. J. Appl. Meteorol. 19, 370–380.
  • Kung, E. C. and Sharif, T. A. 1982. Long-range forecasting of the Indian summer monsoon onset and rainfall with upper air parameters and sea surface temperature. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 60, 272–281.
  • Lau, K.-M. and Chan, P. H. 1986. Aspects of the 40-50 day oscillation during the northern summer as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 114, 1354–1367.
  • Madden, R. A. and Julian, P. R. 1971. Detection of a 40-50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci,. 28, 702–708.
  • Madden, R. A. and Julian, P. R. 1972. Description of global-scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40-50 day period. J. Atmos. Sci. 29, 1109–1123.
  • Murakami, M. 1976. Analysis of summer monsoon fluctuations over India. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 54, 15–31.
  • Murakami, M. 1979. Large-scale aspects of deep convective activity over the GATE area. Mon. Wea. Rev. 107, 994–1013.
  • Murakami, M. 1984. Analysis of deep convective activity over the western Pacific and southeast Asia. Part II: seasonal and intraseasonal variations during northern summer. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 62, 88–108.
  • Murakami, T., Nakazawa, T. and He, J. 1984. On the 40-50 day oscillation during the 1979 northern hemisphere summer. Part I: phase propagation. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 62, 440–468.
  • Murakami, T. and Nakazawa, T. 1985. Tropical 45 day oscillations during the 1979 northern hemisphere summer. J. Atmos. Sci. 41, 1107–1122.
  • Murakami, T., Chen, L. X., Xie, A. and Shrestha, M. L. 1986a. Eastward propagation of 30-60 day perturbations as revealed from outgoing longwave radiation date. J. Atmos. Sci. 43, 961–971.
  • Murakami, T., Chen, L. X. and Xie, A. 1986b. Relationship among seasonal cycles, low-frequency oscillations and transient disturbances as revealed from outgoing longwave radiation data. Mon. Wea. Rer. 114, 1456–1465.
  • Nakazawa, T. 1986. Intraseasonal variations of OLR in the tropics during the FGGE year. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 64, 17–34.
  • Sikka, D. R. and Gadgil, S. 1980. On the maximum cloud zone and the ITCZ over Indian longitudes during the southwest monsoon. Mon. Wea. Rev. 108, 1840–1853.
  • Singh, S. V. and Kripalani, R. H. 1985. The south to north progression of rainfall anomalies across India during the summer monsoon season. PAGEOPH 123, 624–637.
  • Singh, S. V. and Kripalani, R. H. 1986. Application of extended empirical orthogonal function analysis to interrelationships and sequential evolution of mon-soon fields. Mon. Wea. Rev. 114, 1603–1610.
  • Yasunari, T. 1979. Cloudiness fluctuations associated with the northern hemisphere summer monsoon. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 57, 227–242.
  • Yasunari, T. 1980. A quasi-stationary appearance of 30 to 40 day period in the cloudiness fluctuations during the summer monsoon over India. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 58, 225–229.