Spatial-temporal fractions verification for high-resolution ensemble forecasts

References

• Ahijevych D , Gilleland E , Brown B. G , Ebert E . Application of spatial verification methods to idealized and NWP-gridded precipitation forecasts. Wea. Forecasting. 2009; 24: 1485–1497.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bowler N. E , Arribas A , Mylne K. R , Robertson K. B , Beare S. E . The MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 2008; 134: 703–722.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Casati B , Ross G , Stephenson D. B . A new intensity-scale approach for the verification of spatial precipitation forecasts. Meteor. Appl. 2004; 11: 141–154.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Clark A. J , Kain J. S , Stensrud D. J , Xue M , Kong F , co-authors . Probabilistic precipitation forecast skill as a function of ensemble size and spatial scale in a convection-allowing ensemble. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2011; 139: 1410–1418.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Davis C. A , Brown B. G , Bullock R. G . Object-based verification of precipitation forecasts. Part I: methodology and application to mesoscale rain areas. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2006; 134: 1772–1784.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Duan Y , Gong J , Du J , Charron M , Chen J , co-authors . An overview of the Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 2012
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ebert E . Fuzzy verification of high resolution gridded forecasts: a review and proposed framework. Meteor. Appl. 2008; 15: 51–64.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ebert E , McBride J. L . Verification of precipitation in weather systems: determination of systematic errors. J. Hydrol. 2000; 239: 179–202.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gallus W. A . Application of object-based verification techniques to ensemble precipitation forecasts. Wea. Forecasting. 2010; 25: 144–158.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gilleland E , Ahijevych D , Brown B. G , Casati B , Ebert E . Intercomparison of spatial forecast verification methods. Wea. Forecasting. 2009; 24: 1416–1430.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gaudet B , Cotton W. R . Statistical characteristics of a real-time precipitation forecasting model. Wea. Forecasting. 1998; 13: 966–982.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hirahara Y , Ishida J , Ishimizu T . Trial operation of the local forecast model at JMA. CAS/JSC WGNE Res. Act. Atmos. Ocea. Model. 2011; 41: 5.11–5.12.
   Google Scholar
• Honda Y , Sawada K . A new 4D-Var for mesoscale analysis at the Japan meteorological agencyva. CAS/JSC WGNE Res. Act. Atmos. Ocea. Model. 2008; 38: 01.7–01.8.
   Google Scholar
• Kunii M , Saito K , Seko H , Hara M , Hara T , co-authors . Verification and intercomparison of mesoscale ensemble prediction systems in the Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project. Tellus. 2011; 63A: 531–549.
   Google Scholar
• Lack S , Limpert G. L , Fox N. I . An object-oriented multiscale verification scheme. Wea. Forecasting. 2010; 25: 79–92.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marsigli C , Boccanera F , Montani A , Paccagnella T . The COSMO-LEPS mesoscale ensemble system: validation of the methodology and verification, Nonlin . Proc. Geophys. 2005; 12: 527–536.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marsigli C , Montani A , Paccagnella T . A spatial verification method applied to the evaluation of high-resolution ensemble forecasts. Meteor. Appl. 2008; 15: 125–143.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mittermaier M . Improving short-range high-resolution model precipitation forecast skill using time-lagged ensembles. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 2007; 133: 1487–1500.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mittermaier M , Roberts N . Intercomparison of spatial forecast verification methods: identifying skillful spatial scales using the fractions skill score. Wea. Forecasting. 2010; 25: 343–354.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nagata K . Quantitative precipitation estimation and quantitative precipitation forecasting by the Japan meteorological agency. RSMC Tokyo–Typhoon Center Technical Review. 2011; 13: 37–50. Online at: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/techrev/text13-2.pdf .
   Google Scholar
• Roberts N. M , Lean H. W . Scale-selective verification of rainfall accumulations from high-resolution forecasts of convective events. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2008; 136: 78–97.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Saito K . The Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model and its application to operation and research. 2012. In Atmospheric Model Applications. InTech, 296 pp.
   Google Scholar
• Saito K , Fujita T , Yamada Y , Ishida J , Kumagai Y , co-authors . The operational JMA nonhydrostatic meso-scale model. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2006; 134: 1266–1298.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Saito K , Seko H , Kawabata T , Shoji Y , Kuroda T , co-authors . Studies at MRI toward cloud resolving ensemble NWP. Presentation at 11th EMS Annual Meeting. 2011a. Online at: http://presentations.copernicus.org/EMS2011-527_presentation.pdf .
   Google Scholar
• Saito K , Hara M , Kunii M , Seko H , Yamaguchi M . Comparison of initial perturbation methods for the mesoscale ensemble prediction system of the meteorological research institute for the WWRP Beijing 2008 olympics research and development project (B08RDP). Tellus. 2011b; 63A: 445–467.
   Google Scholar
• Saito K , Seko H , Kunii M , Miyoshi T . Effect of lateral boundary perturbations on the breeding method and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter for mesoscale ensemble prediction. Tellus A. 2012; 64
   Google Scholar
• Schwartz C. S , Kain J. S , Weiss S. J , Xue M , Bright D. R , co-authors . Toward improved convection-allowing ensembles: model physics sensitivities and optimizing probabilistic guidance with small ensemble membership. Wea. Forecasting. 2010; 25: 263–280.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Seko H , Miyoshi T , Shoji Y , Saito K . A data assimilation experiment of PWV using the LETKF system–Intense rainfall event on 28 July 2008. Tellus. 2011; 63A: 402–414.
   Google Scholar
• Wang Y , Bellus M , Wittmann C , Steinheimer M , Weidle F , co-authors . The Central European limited-area ensemble forecasting system: ALADIN-LAEF. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 2011; 137: 483–502.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wernli H , Paulat M , Hagen M , Frei C . SAL—A novel quality measure for the verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2008; 136: 4470–4487.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weusthoff T , Felix A , Marco A , Mathias W. R . Assessing the benefits of convection-permitting models by neighborhood verification: examples from MAP D-PHASE. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2010; 138: 3418–3433.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zepeda-Arce J , Foufoula-Georgiou E , Droegemeier K. K . Spacetime rainfall organization and its role in validating quantitative precipitation forecastsm. J. Geophys. Res. 2000; 105: 10129–10146.
   Google Scholar