919
Views
7
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Dynamic Meteorology

Importance of resolution and model configuration when downscaling extreme precipitation

&
Article: 23993 | Received 05 Feb 2014, Accepted 04 Jun 2014, Published online: 09 Jul 2014

References

  • Bengtsson L. , Hodges K. , Keenlyside N . Will extratropical storms intensify in a warmer climate?. J. Clim. 2009; 22: 2276–2301.
  • Blackburn M. , Methven J. , Roberts N . Large-scale context for the UK floods in summer 2007. Weather. 2008; 63: 280–288.
  • Catto J . Extratropical Cyclones in HiGEM: Climatology, Structure and Future Predictions. 2009; Reading, UK: University of Reading. PhD Thesis.
  • Champion A. , Hodges K. , Bengtsson L. , Keenlyside N. , Esch M . Impact of increasing resolution and a warmer climate on extreme weather from northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones. Tellus A. 2011; 63: 893–905.
  • Chan S. , Kendon E. , Fowler H. , Blenkinsop S. , Ferro C. , co-authors . Does increasing the spatial resolution of a regional climate model improve the simulated daily precipitation?. Clim. Dyn. 2014; 41(5–6): 1475–1495.
  • Cheng C. , Li G. , Li Q. , Auld H . A synoptic weather-typing approach to project future daily rainfall and extremes at local scale in Ontario, Canada. J. Clim. 2011; 24: 3667–3685.
  • Davies H . Limitations of some common lateral boundary schemes used in regional NWP models. Mon. Weather Rev. 1983; 111: 1002–1012.
  • Davies T. , Cullen M. , Malcolm A. , Mawson M. , Staniforth A. , co-authors . A new dynamical core for the Met Office's global and regional modelling of the atmosphere. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 2005; 131(608): 1759–1782.
  • DEMON. 2012. Online at: http://www.bgs.ac.uk/stormrm/demon.html; http://www.bgs.ac.uk/stormrm/demon.html .
  • ECMWF. IFS Documentation – Cy31r1 Part III: Dynamics and Numerical Procedures. 2007; Reading, UK: Technical Report. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
  • ECMWF. 2012. Online at: http://www.ecmwf.int/, URL http://www.ecmwf.int/ .
  • Environment Agency. Hydrometry and Telemetry – How to Operate Rainfall and Climate Sites and Manage the Data. 2011; London, UK: Environment Agency. 1st ed. Operational instruction 622–11.
  • Fowler H. , Blenkinsop S. , Tebaldi C . Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. Int. J. Climatol. 2007; 27: 1547–1578.
  • Gopalakrishnan S. , Goldenberg S. , Quirino T. , Zhang X. , Marks F. , co-authors . Toward improving high-resolution numerical hurricane forecasting: influence of model horizontal grid resolution, initialization, and physics. Weather Forecast. 2012; 27(3): 647–666.
  • Grahame N. , Davies P . Forecasting the exceptional rainfall events of summer 2007 and communication of key messages to Met Office customers. Weather. 2008; 63(9): 268–273.
  • Gregory D. , Rowntree P . A mass flux convection scheme with representation of cloud ensemble characteristics and stability dependent closure. Mon. Weather Rev. 1990; 118: 1483–1506.
  • Hand W. , Fox N. , Collier C . A study of the twentieth-century extreme rainfall events in the United Kingdom with implications for forecasting. Meteorol. Appl. 2004; 11: 15–31.
  • Hodges K. I . A general method for tracking analysis and its application to meteorological data. Mon. Weather Rev. 1994; 122: 2573–2586.
  • Hodges K. I . Feature tracking on the unit sphere. Mon. Weather Rev. 1995; 123: 3458–3465.
  • Keers J. , Wescott P . A Computer-Based Model for Design Rainfall in the United Kingdom. 1977; Exeter, UK: Met Office, Met Office Scientific Paper No. 36.
  • Kendon, E., Roberts, N., Senior, C. and Roberts, M. 2012. Realism of rainfall in a very high-resolution regional climate model. J. Clim. 25, 5791–5806. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00562.1.
  • Kjeldsen T . Flood Estimation Handbook Supplementary Report No. 1: The Revitalised FSR/FEH Rainfall-Runoff Method. 2007; Wallingford, UK: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Supplementary Report No. 1.
  • Kühnlein C. , Keil C. , Craig G. , Gebhardt C . The impact of downscaled initial condition perturbations on convective-scale ensemble forecasts of precipitation. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 2013
  • Lean H. , Clark P. , Dixon M. , Robers N. , Fitch A. , co-authors . Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the met office unified model for forecasting convection over the united kingdom. Mon. Weather Rev. 2008; 136: 3408–3424.
  • Lo J. C.-F. , Yang Z.-L. , Pielke R . Assessment of three dynamical climate downscaling methods using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. J. Geophys. Res. 2008; 113: D09112.
  • Mahoney K. , Alexander M. , Scott J. D. , Barsugli J . High-resolution downscaled simulations of warm-season extreme precipitation events in the Colorado front range under past and future climates. J. Clim. 2013; 26: 8671–8689.
  • Met Office. Unified Model User Guide. 2008; Exeter, UK: Met Office. 4th ed.
  • Orskaug E. , Scheel I. , Frigessi A. , Guttorp P. , Haugen J. , co-authors . Evaluation of a dynamic downscaling of precipitation over the Norwegian mainland. Tellus. 2011; 63(4): 746–756.
  • Osborn T. , Hulme M. , Jones P. , Basnett A . Observed trends in the daily intensity of united kingdom precipitation. Int. J. Climatol. 2000; 20: 347–364.
  • Pinto J. , Ulbrich U. , Leckebusch G. , Spangehl T. , Reyers M. , co-authors . Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM. Clim. Dyn. 2007; 29: 195–210.
  • Pitt M . The Pitt Review: Learning Lessons From the 2007 Floods. 2008; London, UK: Technical Report. Cabinet Office.
  • Roberts N . Assessing the spatial and temporal variation in the skill of precipitation forecasts from an NWP model. Meteorol. Appl. 2008a; 15: 163–169.
  • Roberts N . Modelling Extreme Rainfall Events. 2008b; London, UK: Department for Environment and Rural Affairs. Technical Report.
  • Thompson R . Rainfall Estimation Using Polarimetric Weather Radar. 2007; Reading, UK: University of Reading. PhD Thesis.
  • Tolman H. L. , Alves J.-H. G. M . Numerical modeling of wind waves generated by tropical cyclones using moving grids. Ocean Model. 2005; 9: 305–323.
  • Trémolet Y . Incremental 4D-Var Convergence Study. 2005; Reading, UK: ECMWF. Technical Report 469.
  • Tryhorn L. , DeGaetano A . A comparison of techniques for downscaling extreme precipitation over the Northeastern United States. Int. J. Climatol. 2011; 31: 1975–1989.
  • UK Meteorological Office. Met office integrated data archive system (Midas) land and marine surface stations data (1853-current). 2012. Online at: http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/view/badc.nerc.ac.uk__ATOM__dataent_ukmo-midas; http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/view/badc.nerc.ac.uk__ATOM__dataent_ukmo-midas .
  • Warner T. , Peterson R. , Treadon R . A tutorial on lateral boundary conditions as a basic and potentially serious limitation to regional numerical weather prediction. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 1997; 78(11): 2599–2617.
  • Wernli H. , Paulat M. , Hagen M. , Frei C . SAL – a novel quality measure for the verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts. Mon. Weather Rev. 2008; 136: 4470–4487.
  • Wilson D. , Ballard S . A microphysically based precipitation scheme for the UK Meteorological Office unified model. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 1999; 125: 1607–1636.