Towards a probabilistic regional reanalysis system for Europe: evaluation of precipitation from experiments

References

• Agresti A. , Hitchcock D . Bayesian inference for categorical data analysis. Stat. Methods Appl. 2005; 14: 297–330.
   Google Scholar
• Anderson J. L . A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations. J. Clim. 1996; 9: 1518–1530.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Anderson J. L . The impact of dynamical constraints on the selection of initial conditions for ensemble predictions: low-order perfect model results. Mon. Weather Rev. 1997; 125(11): 2969–2983.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Arakawa A. , Lamb V . A potential enstrophy and energy conserving scheme for the shallow water equations. Mon. Weather Rev. 1981; 109: 18–36.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Arpe K . The hydrological cycle in the ECMWF short range forecasts. Dyn. Atmos. Ocean. 1991; 16: 33–59.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baehr J. , Fröhlich K. , Botzet M. , Domeisen D. I. V. , Kornblueh L. , co-authors . The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model. Clim. Dyn. 2014; 44(9–10): 2723–2735.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baldauf M. , Seifert A. , Förstner J. , Majewski D. , Raschendorfer M . Operational convective-scale numerical weather prediction with the COSMO model: description and sensitivities. Mon. Weather Rev. 2011; 139(12): 3887–3905.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bengtsson L. , Hagemann S. , Hodges K. I . Can climate trends be calculated from reanalysis data?. J. Geophys. Res. D Atmos. 2004; 109(11): 1–8.
   Google Scholar
• Bengtsson L. , Shukla J . Integration of space and in situ observations to study global climate change. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 1988; 69(10): 1130–1143.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Betts A. K. , Ball J. H . Basin-scale surface water and energy budgets for the Mississippi from the ECMWF reanalysis. J. Geophys. Res. 1999; 104: 19293–19306.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bierdel L. , Friederichs P. , Bentzien S . Spatial kinetic energy spectra in the convection-permitting limited-area NWP model COSMO-DE. Meteorol. Zeitschrift. 2012; 21(3): 245–258.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bojinski S. , Verstraete M. , Peterson T. C. , Richter C. , Simmons A. , co-authors . The concept of essential climate variables in support of climate research, applications, and policy. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2014; 95(9): 1431–1443.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bollmeyer C. , Keller J. D. , Ohlwein C. , Wahl S. , Crewell S. , co-authors . Towards a high-resolution regional reanalysis for the european CORDEX domain. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2015; 141(686): 1–15.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bott A . A positive definite advection scheme obtained by nonlinear renormalization of the advective fluxes. Mon. Weather Rev. 1989; 117: 1006–1015.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brier G . Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Weather Rev. 1950; 78(1): 189–195.
   Google Scholar
• Bröcker J. , Smith L . Increasing the reliability of reliability diagrams. Weather Forecast. 2007; 22(3): 651–661.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bromwich D. H. , Wilson A. B. , Bai L.-s. , Moore W. K. , Bauer P . A comparison of the regional Arctic System Reanalysis and the global ERA-Interim Reanalysis for the Arctic. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2016; 142: 644–658.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen X. , Liu C. , Driscoll K. O. , Mayer B. , Su J. , co-authors . On the nudging terms at open boundaries in regional ocean models. Ocean Model. 2013; 66: 14–25.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Compo G. P. , Whitaker J. S. , Sardeshmukh P. D. , Matsui N. , Allan R. J. , co-authors . The twentieth century reanalysis project. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2011; 137(654): 1–28.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dahlgren P. , Landelius T. , Gollvik S . A high resolution regional reanalysis for Europe Part 1: 3-dimensional reanalysis with the regional HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2016; 142(698): 2119–2131.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Davies H. C . Limitations of some common lateral boundary schemes used in regional NWP models. Mon. Weather Rev. 1983; 111: 1002–1012.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dee D. P. , Uppala S. M. , Simmons A. J. , Berrisford P. , Poli P. , co-authors . The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2011; 137(656): 553–597.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Deng A. J. , Seaman N. L. , Hunter G. K. , Stauffer D. R . Evaluation of interregional transport using the MM5-SCIPUFF system. J. Appl. Meteorol. 2004; 43(12): 1864–1886.
   Google Scholar
• Doms G. , Baldauf M . A Description of the Nonhydrostatic Regional COSMO-Model Part I: Dynamics and Numerics. 2015. Technical Report, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main.
   Google Scholar
• Doms G. , Förstner J. , Heise E. , Herzog H.-J. , Mironov D. , co-authors . A Description of the Nonhydrostatic Regional COSMO Model Part II: Physical Parameterization. 2011; Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main: Technical Report.
   Google Scholar
• Donaldson R. , Dyer R. , Kraus M . Objective evaluator of techniques for predicting severe weather events. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 1975; 56(7): 755.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gal-Chen T. , Somerville R. C. J . On the use of a coordinate transformation for the solution of the Navier-Stokes equations. J. Comput. Phys. 1975; 228: 209–228.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Giorgi F. , Jones C. , Asrar G. R . Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. WMO Bull. 2009; 58: 175–183.
   Google Scholar
• Hamill T. M. , Colucci S. J . Verification of EtaRSM short-range ensemble forecasts. Mon. Weather Rev. 1997; 125(6): 1312–1327.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hersbach H . Decomposition of the continuous ranked probability score for ensemble prediction systems. Weather Forecast. 2000; 15: 559–570.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hess R . Assimilation of screen-level observations by variational soil moisture analysis. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 2001; 77(1–4): 145–154.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hollingsworth A. , Lnnberg P . The statistical structure of short-range forecast errors as determined from radiosonde data Part II: The covariance of height and wind errors. Tellus A. 1986; 38A: 137–161.
   Google Scholar
• Houtekamer P. L. , Lefaivre L. , Derome J. , Ritchie H. , Mitchell H. L . A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction. Mon. Weather Rev. 1996; 124: 1225–1242.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jermey P. M. , Renshaw R. J . Precipitation representation over a two year period in regional reanalysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2016; 142: 1300–1310.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kalnay E. , Kanamitsu M. , Kistler R. , Collins W. , Deaven D. , co-authors . The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 1996; 77(3): 437–471.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kaspar F. , Müller-Westermeier G. , Penda E. , Mächel H. , Zimmermann K. , co-authors . Monitoring of climate change in Germany – data, products and services of Germany's National Climate Data Centre. Adv. Sci. Res. 2013; 10: 99–106.
   Google Scholar
• Keller J. D. , Hense A . A new non-Gaussian evaluation method for ensemble forecasts based on analysis rank histograms. Meteorol. Zeitschrift. 2011; 20(2): 107–117.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kobayashi S. , Ota Y. , Harada Y. , Ebita A. , Moriya M. , co-authors . The JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications and basic characteristics. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan. Ser. II. 2015; 93(1): 5–48.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Laloyaux P. , Balmaseda M. , Dee D. , Mogensen K. , Janssen P . A coupled data assimilation system for climate reanalysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2016; 142(694): 65–78.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Landelius T. , Dahlgren P. , Gollvik S. , Jansson A. , Olsson E . A high resolution regional reanalysis for Europe Part 2: 2D analysis of surface temperature, precipitation and wind. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2016; 142(698): 2132–2142.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lei L. , Stauffer D. , Haupt S. , Young G . A hybrid nudging-ensemble Kalman filter approach to data assimilation. Part I: application in the Lorenz system. Tellus. 2012a; 1(0): 1–14.
   Google Scholar
• Lei L. , Stauffer D. R. , Deng A . A hybrid nudging-ensemble Kalman filter approach to data assimilation in WRF/DART. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2012b; 138(669): 2066–2078.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Leidner S. M. , Stauffer D. R. , Seaman N. L . Improving short-term numerical weather prediction in the California coastal zone by dynamic initialization of the marine boundary layer. Mon. Weather Rev. 2001; 129(2): 275–294.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lönnberg P. , Hollingsworth A . The statistical structure of shortrange forecast errors as determined from radiosonde data Part II: The covariance of height and wind errors. Tellus. 1986; 38A: 137–161.
   Google Scholar
• Mason I . A model for assessment of weather forecasts. Aust. Meteorlogical Mag. 1982; 30: 291–303.
   Google Scholar
• Mesinger F. , DiMego G. , Kalnay E. , Mitchell K. , Shafran P. C. , co-authors . North American regional reanalysis. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2006; 87(3): 343–360.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Murphy A . A new vector partition of the probability score. J. Appl. Meteorol. 1973a; 12: 595–600.
   Google Scholar
• Murphy A . Hedging and skill scores for probability forecasts. J. Appl. Meteorol. 1973b; 12: 215–223.
   Google Scholar
• Onogi K. , Tsutsui J. , Koide H. , Sakamoto M. , Kobayashi S. , co-authors . The JRA-25 reanalysis. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan. 2007; 85(3): 369–432.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Otte T. L. , Nolte C. G. , Otte M. J. , Bowden J. H . Does nudging squelch the extremes in regional climate modeling?. J. Clim. 2012; 25(20): 7046–7066.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Palmer T. N. , Barkmeijer J. , Buizza R. , Petroliagis T. , Park S . The ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Meteorol. Appl. 1997; 4(4): 301–304.
   Google Scholar
• Poli P. , Hersbach H. , Dee D. P. , Berrisford P. , Simmons A. J. , co-authors . ERA-20C: an atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century. J. Clim. 2016; 29: 4083–4097.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rienecker M. M. , Suarez M. J. , Gelaro R. , Todling R. , Bacmeister J. , co-authors . MERRA: NASA's modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. J. Clim. 2011; 24(14): 3624–3648.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ritter B. , Geleyn J.-F . A comprehensive radiation scheme for numerical weather prediction models with potential applications in climate simulations. Mon. Weather Rev. 1992; 120: 303–325.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Saha S. , Moorthi S. , Pan H. L. , Wu X. , Wang J. , co-authors . The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2010; 91(8): 1015–1057.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schättler U. , Doms G. , Schraff C . A Description of the Nonhydrostatic Regional COSMO-Model. 2011; Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach: Technical Report.
   Google Scholar
• Schraff C. H . Data assimilation and mesoscale weather prediction: a study with a forecast model for the alpine regiom. 1996. PhD thesis, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology.
   Google Scholar
• Schraff C. H . Mesoscale data assimilation and prediction of low stratus in the Alpine region. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 1997; 64(1–2): 21–50.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schraff C. , Hess R . Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling A Description of the Nonhydrostatic Regional COSMO-Model Part III: Data Assimilation. 2012. Technical Report, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach.
   Google Scholar
• Schraff C. , Reich H. , Rhodin A. , Schomburg A. , Stephan K. , co-authors . Kilometre-scale ensemble data assimilation for the COSMO model (KENDA). Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2016; 142: 1453–1472.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schroeder A. J. , Stauffer D. R. , Seaman N. L. , Deng A. , Gibbs A. M. , co-authors . An automated high-resolution, rapidly relocatable meteorological nowcasting and prediction system. Mon. Weather Rev. 2006; 134: 1237–1265.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schulz J.-P. , Vogel G. , Becker C. , Kothe S. , Rummel U . Evaluation of the ground heat flux simulated by a multi-layer land surface scheme using high-quality observations at grass land and bare soil. Meteorol. Zeitschrift. 2016; 25: 607–620.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Seaman N. L. , Stauffer D. R. , Lario-Gibbs A. M . A multi-scale four-dimensional data assimilation system applied in the San Joaquin Valley during SARMAP. Part 1: modeling design and basic performance characteristics. J. Appl. Meteorol. 1995; 34: 1739–1761.
   Google Scholar
• Simmer C. , Adrian G. , Jones S. , Wirth V. , Göber M. , co-authors . HErZ. The German Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2016; 97: 1057–1068.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Skamarock W. C . Evaluating mesoscale NWP models using kinetic energy spectra. Mon. Weather Rev. 2004; 132: 3019–3032.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stauffer D. R. , Seaman N. L . Use of four-dimensional data assimilation in a limited-area mesoscale model. Part 1: experiments with synoptic-scale data. Mon. Weather Rev. 1990; 110: 1250–1277.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stauffer D. , Seaman N . Use of four-dimensional data assimilation in a limited-area mesoscale model Part II: effects of data assimilation within the planetary boundary layer. Mon. Weather Rev. 1991; 119: 734–754.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stephenson D. B . Use of the odds ratio for diagnosing forecast skill. Weather Forecast. 2000; 15(2): 221–232.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thorne P. , Vose R . Reanalyses suitable for characterizing long-term trends. Are they really achievable?. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2010; 91(3): 353–361.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tiedtke M . A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models. Mon. Weather Rev. 1989; 117: 1779–1800.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wicker L. J. , Skamarock W. C . Time-splitting methods for elastic models using forward time schemes. Mon. Weather Rev. 2002; 130(8): 2088–2097.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wilks D . Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 1995; Burlington, VT: Elsevier Academic Press.
   Google Scholar