Determination of a lower bound on Earth's climate sensitivity

References

• Aldrin M , Holden M , Guttorp P , Skeie R. B , Myhre G , co-authors . Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations of hemispheric temperatures and global ocean heat content. Environmetrics. 2012; 23(3): 253–271.
   Google Scholar
• Andrews T , Gregory J. M , Webb M. J , Taylor K. E . Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2012; 39: L09712.
   Google Scholar
• Boden T. A , Marland G , Andres R. J . Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO₂ Emissions. 2010. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge..
   Google Scholar
• Boer G. J , Yu B . Climate sensitivity and climate state. Clim. Dyn. 2002; 21: 167–176.
   Google Scholar
• Bond T. C , Bhardwaj E , Dong R , Jogani R , Jung S , co-authors . Historical emissions of black and organic carbon aerosol from energy-related combustion, 1850–2000. Global Biogeochem. Cycles. 2007; 21: GB2018.
   Google Scholar
• Bony S , Colman R , Kattsov V. M , Allan R. P , Bretherton C. S , co-authors . How well do we understand and evaluate climate change feedback processes?. J. Clim. 2006; 19: 3445–3482.
   Google Scholar
• Bourassa A. E , Robock A , Randel W. J , Deshler T , Rieger L. A , co-authors . Large volcanic aerosol load in the stratosphere linked to Asian monsoon transport. Science. 2012; 337: 78–81.
   Google Scholar
• Brohan P , Kennedy J. J , Harris I , Tett S. F. B , Jones P. D . Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new data set from 1850. J. Geophys. Res. 2006; 111: D12106.
   Google Scholar
• Church J. A , White N. J , Konikow L. F , Domingues C. M , Cogley J. G , co-authors . Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961, to 2008. Geophys. Res Lett. 2011; 38: L18601.
   Google Scholar
• Collins M , Booth B. B , Bhaskaran B , Harris G. R , Murphy J. M , co-authors . Climate model errors, feedbacks and forcings: a comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles. Clim. Dynam. 2011; 36(9–10): 1737–1766.
   Google Scholar
• Collins W. D , Ramaswamy V , Schwarzkopf M. D , Sun Y , Portmann R. W , co-authors . Radiative forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases: estimates from climate models in the IPCC AR4. J. Geophys. Res. 2006; 111: D14317.
   Google Scholar
• De Gouw J , Jimenez J. L . Organic aerosols in the Earth's atmosphere. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2009; 43: 7614–7618.
   Google Scholar
• Dee D. P , Kallen E , Simmons A. J , Haimberger L . Comments on Reanalyses suitable for characterizing long-term trends. Bull of Amer. Meteor. Soc. 2011; 92: 65–72.
   Google Scholar
• Dufresne J.-L , Bony S . An assessment of the primary sources of spread of global warming estimates from coupled atmosphere–ocean models. J. Clim. 2008; 21: 5135–5144.
   Google Scholar
• Fasullo J. T . Robust land–ocean contrasts in energy and water cycle feedbacks. J. Clim. 2010; 23: 4677–4693. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3451.1. .
   Google Scholar
• Forest C. E , Stone P. H , Sokolov A. P . Constraining climate model parameters from observed 20th century changes. Tellus A. 2008; 60(5): 911–920.
   Google Scholar
• Forster P , Ramaswamy V , Artaxo P , Berntsen T , Betts R , co-authors . Solomon S , Qin D , Manning M , Chen Z , Marquis M , co-authors . Changes in atmospheric constituents and in radiative forcing. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007; Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Gao C , Robock A , Ammann C . Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice-core-based index for climate models. J. Geophys. Res. 2008; 113: D23111.
   Google Scholar
• Gregory J. M . Vertical heat transports in the ocean and their effect on time-dependent climate change. Clim. Dyn. 2000; 16: 501–515. DOI: 10.1007/s003820000059.
   Google Scholar
• Gregory J. M , Forster P. M . Transient climate response estimated from radiative forcing and observed temperature change. J. Geophys. Res. 2008; 113: D23105.
   Google Scholar
• Gregory J. M , Stouffer R. J , Raper S. C. B , Stott P. A , Rayner N. A . An observationally based estimate of the climate sensitivity. J. Clim. 2002; 15: 3117–3121.
   Google Scholar
• Hansen J , Lacis A , Rind D , Russell G , Stone P , co-authors . Hansen J. E , Takahashi T . Climate sensitivity: analysis of feedback mechanisms, in climate processes and climate sensitivity. AGU Geophysical Monograph 29. 1984; 130–163. American Geophysical Union.
   Google Scholar
• Hansen J , Ruedy R , Sato M , Lo K . Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys. 2010; 48: RG4004.
   Google Scholar
• Hansen J , Sato M , Kharecha P , von Schuckmann K . Earth's energy imbalance and implications. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2011; 11: 13421–13449.
   Google Scholar
• Hansen J , Sato M , Ruedy R . Radiative forcing and climate response. J. Geophys. Res. 1997; 102: 6831–6864.
   Google Scholar
• Hansen J , Sato M , Ruedy R , Kharecha P , Lacis A , co-authors . Climate simulations for 1880–2003 with GISS modelE. Clim. Dyn. 2007; 29: 661–696.
   Google Scholar
• Hansen J , Sato M , Russell G , Kharecha P . Climate sensitivity, sea level, and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 2013
   Google Scholar
• Held I. M , Winton M , Takahashi K , Delworth T , Zeng F , co-authors . Probing the fast and slow components of global warming by returning abruptly to preindustrial forcing. J. Clim. 2010; 23: 2418–2427.
   Google Scholar
• Iacono M. J , Delamere J. S , Mlawer E. J , Shephard M. W , Clough S. A , co-authors . Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: calculations with the AER radiative transfer models. J. Geophys. Res. 2008; 113: D13103.
   Google Scholar
• IEA (International Energy Agency). Key World Energy Statistics. 2011
   Google Scholar
• Ignatov A , Stowe L . Aerosol retrievals from individual AVHRR channels. Part I: retrieval algorithm and transition from Dave to 6S radiative transfer model. J. Atmos. Sci. 2002; 59: 313–334.
   Google Scholar
• Joshi M , Shine K , Ponater M , Stuber N , Sausen R , co-authors . A comparison of climate response to different radiative forcing in three general circulation models: towards and improved metric of climate change. Clim. Dyn. 2003; 20: 843–854.
   Google Scholar
• Kloster S , Dentener F , Feichter J , Raes F , Lohmann U , co-authors . A GCM study of future climate response to aerosol pollution reductions. Clim. Dyn. 2010; 34: 1177–1194.
   Google Scholar
• Knutti R , Hegerl G. C . The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes. Nat. Geosci. 2008; 1: 735–743.
   Google Scholar
• Levitus S , Antonov J. I , Boyer T. P , Baranova O. K , Garcia H. E , co-authors . World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2012; 39: L10603.
   Google Scholar
• Loeb N. G , Wielicki B. A , Doelling D. R , Smith G. L , Keyes D. F , co-authors . Toward optimal closure of the Earth's top-of-atmosphere radiation budget. J. Clim. 2009; 22: 748–766.
   Google Scholar
• Lyman J . Estimating global energy flow from the global upper ocean. Surv. Geophys. 2012; 33: 387–393.
   Google Scholar
• Maslin M , Austin P . Climate models at their limit. Nature. 2012; 486: 183–184.
   Google Scholar
• Meehl G. A , Stocker T. F , Collins W. D , Friedlingstein P , Gaye A. T , co-authors . Solomon S , Qin D , Manning M , Chen Z , Marquis M , co-authors . Global climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007; Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Meinshausen M , Meinshausen N , Hare W , Raper S. C , Frieler K , co-authors . Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2°C. Nature. 2009; 458(7242): 1158–1162.
   Google Scholar
• Meinshausen M , Smith S , Calvin K , Daniel J. S , Kainuma M , co-authors . The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extension from 1765 to 2300. Clim. Change. 2011; 109: 213–241.
   Google Scholar
• Mishchenko M. I , Geogdzhayev I. V , Cairns B , Rossow W. B , Lacis A. A . Aerosol retrievals over the ocean using channel 1 and 2 AVHRR data: a sensitivity analysis and preliminary results. Appl. Opt. 1999; 38: 7325–7341.
   Google Scholar
• Mishchenko M. I , Geogdzhayev I. V , Rossow W. B , Cairns B , Carlson B. E , co-authors . Long-term satellite record reveals likely recent aerosol trend. Science. 2007; 315: 1543.
   Google Scholar
• Mishchenko M. I , Liu L , Geogdzhayev I. V , Li J , Carlson B. E , co-authors . Aerosol retrievals from channel-1 and -2 AVHRR radiances: long-term trends updated and revisited. J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer. 2012; 113: 1974–1980.
   Google Scholar
• Myhre G , Highwood E. J , Shine K. P , Stordal F . New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases. Geophys. Res. Lett. 1998; 25: 2715–2718.
   Google Scholar
• Oreopoulos L , Mlawer E. J , Delamere J. S , Shippert T , Cole J , co-authors . The continual intercomparison of radiation codes: results from phase I. J. Geophys. Res. 2012; 117: D06118.
   Google Scholar
• Otto A , Otto F. E , Boucher O , Church J , Hegerl G , co-authors . Energy budget constraints on climate response. Nat. Geosci. 2013; 6: 415–416. DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1836..
   Google Scholar
• Padilla L , Vallis G , Rowley C. W . Probabilistic estimates of transient climate sensitivity subject uncertainty in forcing and natural variability. J. Clim. 2011; 24: 5521–5537.
   Google Scholar
• Palmer M , Antonov J , Barker P , Bindoff N , Boyer T , co-authors . Future observations for monitoring global ocean heat content. Proceedings of the “OceanObs’ 09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society” Conference. 2010. (Vol. 2), Venice, Italy, 21–25 September 2009, 2010, Hall, J., Harrison, D. E. & Stammer, D., Eds., ESA Publication WPP-306, DOI: 10.5270/OceanObs09.cwp.68.
   Google Scholar
• Ramanathan V , Carmichael G . Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon. Nat. Geosci. 2008; 1: 221–227.
   Google Scholar
• Randall D. A , Wood R. A , Bony S , Colman R , Fichefet T , co-authors . Solomon S , Qin D , Manning M , Chen Z , Marquis M , co-authors . Climate models and their evaluation. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007; Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Remer L , Kleidman R , Levy R , Kaufman Y , Tanre D , co-authors . Global aerosol climatology from the MODIS satellite sensors. J. Geophys. Res. 2008; 113: D14S07.
   Google Scholar
• Roe G. H , Baker M. B . Why is climate sensitivity so unpredictable?. Science. 2007; 318: 629–632.
   Google Scholar
• Rohde R , Muller R. A , Jacobsen R , Muller E , Perlmutter S , co-authors . A new estimate of the average Earth surface land temperature spanning 1753 to 2011. Geoinfor. Geostat: An Overview. 2013; 1: 1.
   Google Scholar
• Rohling E. J , Sluijs A , Dijkstra H. A , Köhler P , van de Wal R. S. W , co-authors . Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature. 2012; 491: 683–691.
   Google Scholar
• Sanderson B , Piani C , Ingram W , Stone D , Allen M. R . Towards constraining climate sensitivity by linear analysis of feedback patterns in thousands of perturbed-physics gcm simulations. Clim. Dyn. 2008; 30: 175–190.
   Google Scholar
• Sato M , Hansen J. E , McCormick M. P , Pollack J. B . Stratospheric aerosol optical depth, 1850–1990. J. Geophys. Res. 1993; 98: 22987–22994.
   Google Scholar
• Schlesinger M. E , Schlesinger M. E . Quantitative analysis of feedbacks in climate model simulations of CO2 induced warming. Physically Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climate Change, NATO ASI Series C, vol 243. 1988. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
   Google Scholar
• Schwartz S. E . Determination of Earth's transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities from observations over the twentieth century: strong dependence on assumed forcing. Surv. Geophys. 2012; 33: 745–777.
   Google Scholar
• Schwartz S. E , Charlson R. J , Kahn R. A , Ogren J. A , Rodhe H . Reply To Comment on “Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as Much as Expected?” by R. Knutti and G.-K. Plattner. J. Clim. 2012; 25: 2200–2204. DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4161.1.
   Google Scholar
• Skinner L . A long view on climate sensitivity. Science. 2012; 337: 917–919.
   Google Scholar
• Smith T. M , Reynolds R. W . A global merged land–air–sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880–1997). J. Clim. 2005; 18: 2021–2036.
   Google Scholar
• Soden B. J , Held I. M . An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean–atmosphere models. J. Clim. 2006; 19: 3354–3360.
   Google Scholar
• Solomon S , Daniel J. S , Neely III R. R , Vernier J. P , Dutton E. G , co-authors . The persistently variable ‘Background’ stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change. Science. 2011; 333: 866–869.
   Google Scholar
• Solomon S , Qin D , Manning M , Chen Z , Marquis M , co-authors . Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007; Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Stevens B , Boucher O . Climate science: The aerosol effect. Nature. 2012; 490: 40–41.
   Google Scholar
• Stevens B , Schwartz S. E . Observing and modeling Earth's energy flows. Surv. Geophys. 2012; 33: 779–816.
   Google Scholar
• Thorne P , Lanzante J , Peterson T , Seidel D , Shine K . Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Clim. Change. 2010; 2: 66–88.
   Google Scholar
• Turner D. D , Tobin D. C , Clough S. A , Brown P. D , Ellingson R. G , co-authors . The QME AERI LBLRTM: a closure experiment for downwelling high spectral resolution infrared radiance. J. Atmos. Sci. 2004; 61: 2657–2675.
   Google Scholar
• Wagener R , Nemesure S , Schwartz S. E . Aerosol optical depth over oceans: high space and time resolution retrieval and error budget from satellite radiometry. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. 1997; 14: 577–590.
   Google Scholar
• Webb M. J , Senior C. A , Sexton D. M. H , Ingram W. J , Williams K. D , co-authors . On the contribution of local feedback mechanisms to the range of climate sensitivity in two GCM ensembles. Clim. Dyn. 2006; 27: 17–38.
   Google Scholar
• Zhang J , Reid J. S . A decadal regional and global trend analysis of the aerosol optical depth using a data-assimilation grade over-water MODIS and Level 2 MISR aerosol products. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2010; 10: 1–8.
   Google Scholar
• Zhang Q , Jimenez J. L , Canagaratna M. R , Allan J. D , Coe H , co-authors . Ubiquity and dominance of oxygenated species in organic aerosols in anthropogenically-influenced Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2007; 34: L13801.
   Google Scholar