1,250
Views
36
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Paper

The relationship between meteorological factors and mumps incidence in Guangzhou, China, 2005–2012:

A distributed lag nonlinear time-series analysis

, , , , , , , , & show all
Pages 2421-2432 | Received 21 Apr 2014, Accepted 20 May 2014, Published online: 23 Jun 2014

References

  • Hviid A, Rubin S, Mühlemann K. Mumps. Lancet 2008; 371:932 - 44; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(08)60419-5; PMID: 18342688
  • Watson-Creed G, Saunders A, Scott J, Lowe L, Pettipas J, Hatchette TF. Two successive outbreaks of mumps in Nova Scotia among vaccinated adolescents and young adults. CMAJ 2006; 175:483 - 8; http://dx.doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.060660; PMID: 16940266
  • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Mumps epidemic--Iowa, 2006. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2006; 55:366 - 8; PMID: 16601665
  • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Mumps epidemic--United kingdom, 2004-2005. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2006; 55:173 - 5; PMID: 16498380
  • Schwarz NG, Bernard H, Melnic A, Bucov V, Caterinciuc N, an der Heiden M, Andrews N, Pebody R, Aidyralieva C, Hahné S. Mumps outbreak in the Republic of Moldova, 2007-2008. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2010; 29:703 - 6; http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/INF.0b013e3181d743df; PMID: 20308934
  • Hukic M, Ravlija J, Dedeic Ljubovic A, Moro A, Arapcic S, Muller CP, Hübschen JM. Ongoing large mumps outbreak in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, December 2010 to July 2011. Euro Surveill 2011; 16; PMID: 21903042
  • Dayan GH, Quinlisk MP, Parker AA, Barskey AE, Harris ML, Schwartz JM, Hunt K, Finley CG, Leschinsky DP, O’Keefe AL, et al. Recent resurgence of mumps in the United States. N Engl J Med 2008; 358:1580 - 9; http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa0706589; PMID: 18403766
  • Whyte D, O’Dea F, McDonnell C, O’Connell NH, Callinan S, Brosnan E, Powell J, Monahan R, FitzGerald R, Mannix M, et al. Mumps epidemiology in the mid-west of Ireland 2004-2008: increasing disease burden in the university/college setting. Euro Surveill 2009; 14; PMID: 19389339
  • Rajčević S, Seguljev Z, Petrovic V, Medić S, Nedelijković J, Milosević V, Turo L, Ristić M. Ongoing mumps outbreak in Novi Sad, the autonomous province of Vojvodina, Serbia, January to April 2012. Euro Surveill 2012; 17; PMID: 22607963
  • Fei F, Feng L, Xu Z, Feng Z. Epidemiology of mumps in China,2008-2010. Dis Surveill 2011; 26:691 - 3
  • Fu C, Liang J, Wang M. Matched case-control study of effectiveness of live, attenuated S79 mumps virus vaccine against clinical mumps. Clin Vaccine Immunol 2008; 15:1425 - 8; http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/CVI.00122-08; PMID: 18667635
  • Shuman EK. Global climate change and infectious diseases. N Engl J Med 2010; 362:1061 - 3; http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMp0912931; PMID: 20335580
  • Reiter P. Climate change and mosquito-borne disease. Environ Health Perspect 2001; 109:Suppl 1 141 - 61; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.01109s1141; PMID: 11250812
  • Epstein PR. Climate change and human health. N Engl J Med 2005; 353:1433 - 6; http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMp058079; PMID: 16207843
  • Lowen AC, Mubareka S, Steel J, Palese P. Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature. PLoS Pathog 2007; 3:1470 - 6; http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.0030151; PMID: 17953482
  • Zhao Y, Aarnink AJ, Dijkman R, Fabri T, de Jong MC, Groot Koerkamp PW. Effects of temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, and evaporation potential on survival of airborne Gumboro vaccine virus. Appl Environ Microbiol 2012; 78:1048 - 54; http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/AEM.06477-11; PMID: 22156417
  • Shah AP, Smolensky MH, Burau KD, Cech IM, Lai D. Seasonality of primarily childhood and young adult infectious diseases in the United States. Chronobiol Int 2006; 23:1065 - 82; http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07420520600920718; PMID: 17050218
  • Anderson LJ, Seward JF. Mumps epidemiology and immunity: the anatomy of a modern epidemic. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2008; 27:Suppl S75 - 9; http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/INF.0b013e3181684d8d; PMID: 18820583
  • Onozuka D, Hashizume M. Effect of weather variability on the incidence of mumps in children: a time-series analysis. Epidemiol Infect 2011; 139:1692 - 700; http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268810002967; PMID: 21211102
  • Brockhoff HJ, Mollema L, Sonder GJ, Postema CA, van Binnendijk RS, Kohl RH, de Melker HE, Hahné SJ. Mumps outbreak in a highly vaccinated student population, The Netherlands, 2004. Vaccine 2010; 28:2932 - 6; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.02.020; PMID: 20188683
  • Barskey AE, Schulte C, Rosen JB, Handschur EF, Rausch-Phung E, Doll MK, Cummings KP, Alleyne EO, High P, Lawler J, et al. Mumps outbreak in Orthodox Jewish communities in the United States. N Engl J Med 2012; 367:1704 - 13; http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1202865; PMID: 23113481
  • Schwarz NG, Bernard H, Melnic A, Bucov V, Caterinciuc N, an der Heiden M, Andrews N, Pebody R, Aidyralieva C, Hahné S. Mumps outbreak in the Republic of Moldova, 2007-2008. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2010; 29:703 - 6; http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/INF.0b013e3181d743df; PMID: 20308934
  • Dayan GH, Quinlisk MP, Parker AA, Barskey AE, Harris ML, Schwartz JM, Hunt K, Finley CG, Leschinsky DP, O’Keefe AL, et al. Recent resurgence of mumps in the United States. N Engl J Med 2008; 358:1580 - 9; http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa0706589; PMID: 18403766
  • Bélanger M, Gray-Donald K, O’Loughlin J, Paradis G, Hanley J. Influence of weather conditions and season on physical activity in adolescents. Ann Epidemiol 2009; 19:180 - 6; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.annepidem.2008.12.008; PMID: 19217000
  • Tang JW. The effect of environmental parameters on the survival of airborne infectious agents. J R Soc Interface 2009; 6:Suppl 6 S737 - 46; http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2009.0227.focus; PMID: 19773291
  • Shaman J, Kohn M. Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2009; 106:3243 - 8; http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806852106; PMID: 19204283
  • Lighthart B, Mohr AJ. Estimating downwind concentrations of viable airborne microorganisms in dynamic atmospheric conditions. Appl Environ Microbiol 1987; 53:1580 - 3; PMID: 3662508
  • Peng Z, Wu C, Shu J, Tan Q, Lin J. Epidemiological analysis on mumps in Guangdong Province in 2005-2009. S China J Prev Med 2010; 36:31 - 3
  • Mao X, Tu Q. Epidemic trend analysis of mumps in Jiangxi Province, 2008-2012. Capital Journal of Public Health 2013:251-3.
  • Pan W, Cai Z, Zhang D. Analysis of epidemiological characteristics of mumps and control measures in Fujian Province in 2005-2007. China Trop Med 2008; 8:2101 - 2
  • Ou S, Luo Q, Lin G, Tu Y. Impact of tropical cyclones on economic development of Guangzhou and disaster reduction. Trop Geogr 2004; 24:118 - 22
  • He L, Xu A, Chen T. Cold air activities and topographic forcing in severe torrential rainfall in landing typhoon depression(Tailim). Meteorological science and technology 2009;37:385-91.
  • Yin D, Zhang B, Wu H, Liu A. Diagnostic analysis on the Extraordinary storm caused by re-intensification depression of landfall typhoon. Journal of catastrophology 2010;25:13-7.
  • Greenland K, Whelan J, Fanoy E, Borgert M, Hulshof K, Yap KB, Swaan C, Donker T, van Binnendijk R, de Melker H, et al. Mumps outbreak among vaccinated university students associated with a large party, the Netherlands, 2010. Vaccine 2012; 30:4676 - 80; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.04.083; PMID: 22579874
  • Brockhoff HJ, Mollema L, Sonder GJ, Postema CA, van Binnendijk RS, Kohl RH, de Melker HE, Hahné SJ. Mumps outbreak in a highly vaccinated student population, The Netherlands, 2004. Vaccine 2010; 28:2932 - 6; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.02.020; PMID: 20188683
  • Barskey AE, Schulte C, Rosen JB, Handschur EF, Rausch-Phung E, Doll MK, Cummings KP, Alleyne EO, High P, Lawler J, et al. Mumps outbreak in Orthodox Jewish communities in the United States. N Engl J Med 2012; 367:1704 - 13; http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1202865; PMID: 23113481
  • Yang J, Ou CQ, Ding Y, Zhou YX, Chen PY. Daily temperature and mortality: a study of distributed lag non-linear effect and effect modification in Guangzhou. Environ Health 2012; 11:63; http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1476-069X-11-63; PMID: 22974173
  • Wu W, Xiao Y, Li G, Zeng W, Lin H, Rutherford S, Xu Y, Luo Y, Xu X, Chu C, et al. Temperature-mortality relationship in four subtropical Chinese cities: a time-series study using a distributed lag non-linear model. Sci Total Environ 2013; 449:355 - 62; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.01.090; PMID: 23454696
  • Ennis FA, Jackson D. Isolation of virus during the incubation period of mumps infection. J Pediatr 1968; 72:536 - 7; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0022-3476(68)80347-6; PMID: 5647297
  • Guo Y, Tong S, Zhang Y, Barnett AG, Jia Y, Pan X. The relationship between particulate air pollution and emergency hospital visits for hypertension in Beijing, China. Sci Total Environ 2010; 408:4446 - 50; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.06.042; PMID: 20638709
  • Guo Y, Tong S, Li S, Barnett AG, Yu W, Zhang Y, Pan X. Gaseous air pollution and emergency hospital visits for hypertension in Beijing, China: a time-stratified case-crossover study. Environ Health 2010; 9:57; http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1476-069X-9-57; PMID: 20920362
  • Guo Y, Barnett AG, Pan X, Yu W, Tong S. The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China: a case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model. Environ Health Perspect 2011; 119:1719 - 25; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1103598; PMID: 21827978
  • Greer A, Ng V, Fisman D. Climate change and infectious diseases in North America: the road ahead. CMAJ 2008; 178:715 - 22; PMID: 18332386
  • Fu C, Xu J, Cai Y, He Q, Zhang C, Chen J, Dong Z, Hu W, Wang H, Zhu W, et al. Effectiveness of one dose of mumps vaccine against clinically diagnosed mumps in Guangzhou, China, 2006-2012. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2013; 9:2524 - 8; http://dx.doi.org/10.4161/hv.26113; PMID: 23955378
  • Watson-Creed G, Saunders A, Scott J, Lowe L, Pettipas J, Hatchette TF. Two successive outbreaks of mumps in Nova Scotia among vaccinated adolescents and young adults. CMAJ 2006; 175:483 - 8; http://dx.doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.060660; PMID: 16940266
  • Yamei H, Zaifang J. Zhu Futang Practice of Pediatrics. 3rd ed.Beijing: People’s Medical Publishing House, 2011.
  • Guy RJ, Andrews RM, Kelly HA, Leydon JA, Riddell MA, Lambert SB, Catton MG. Mumps and rubella: a year of enhanced surveillance and laboratory testing. Epidemiol Infect 2004; 132:391 - 8; http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268804001955; PMID: 15188707
  • Dostál M, Hertz-Picciotto I, James R, Keller J, Dejmek J, Selevan S, Kotĕsovec F, Nozicka J, Gomez-Caminero A, Wegienka G, et al. Childhood morbidity and air pollution in the Teplice program. Cas Lek Cesk 2001; 140:658 - 61; PMID: 11766454
  • Fu C, Liang J, Wang M. Matched case-control study of effectiveness of live, attenuated S79 mumps virus vaccine against clinical mumps. Clin Vaccine Immunol 2008; 15:1425 - 8; http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/CVI.00122-08; PMID: 18667635
  • Fu CX, Nie J, Liang JH, Wang M. Evaluation of live attenuated S79 mumps vaccine effectiveness in mumps outbreaks: a matched case-control study. Chin Med J (Engl) 2009; 122:307 - 10; PMID: 19236809
  • Armstrong B. Models for the relationship between ambient temperature and daily mortality. Epidemiology 2006; 17:624 - 31; http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/01.ede.0000239732.50999.8f; PMID: 17028505
  • Guo Y, Li S, Zhang Y, Armstrong B, Jaakkola JJ, Tong S, Pan X. Extremely cold and hot temperatures increase the risk of ischaemic heart disease mortality: epidemiological evidence from China. Heart 2013; 99:195 - 203; http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/heartjnl-2012-302518; PMID: 23150195
  • Son JY, Lee JT, Anderson GB, Bell ML. The impact of heat waves on mortality in seven major cities in Korea. Environ Health Perspect 2012; 120:566 - 71; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1103759; PMID: 22266672
  • Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Kenward MG. Distributed lag non-linear models. Stat Med 2010; 29:2224 - 34; http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.3940; PMID: 20812303
  • Onozuka D, Hashizume M. Effect of weather variability on the incidence of mumps in children: a time-series analysis. Epidemiol Infect 2011; 139:1692 - 700; http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268810002967; PMID: 21211102
  • Tian Z, Li S, Zhang J, Jaakkola JJ, Guo Y. Ambient temperature and coronary heart disease mortality in Beijing, China: a time series study. Environ Health 2012; 11:56; http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1476-069X-11-56; PMID: 22909034
  • Gasparrini A. Distributed Lag Linear and Non-Linear Models in R: The Package dlnm. J Stat Softw 2011; 43:1 - 20; PMID: 22003319

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.