Polarization among the ASEAN member states: a geopolitical analysis

ABSTRACT

Recent history has indicated polarization among the ASEAN member states towards China and the US, with surveys and studies have supported this indication. However, the surveys have only represented the position of the sampled population towards both countries, while existing studies have methodological limitations, providing room for further quantitative analysis. Therefore, a more scientific approach involving related parameters is necessary. Our research measures the geopolitical influence index of China, India, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the US in South East Asia from 2005 to 2018 to analyse the indication of polarization among the ASEAN member states in the regional order. The results indicate that there is polarization among the member states towards China and the US and to a lesser and more dynamic degree towards Japan. While the research supports previous scholars’ arguments that the future of South East Asia’s regional order would be somewhere between polarity, regionality or concert of power, we argue that such a situation opens the opportunity for ASEAN to play a more significant role as the ‘big mover’ in South East Asia’s regional order. The article uses economic, political and security perspectives to explain the phenomenon.

KEYWORDS:

• Geopolitical influence
• regional order
• polarization
• South East Asia
• ASEAN

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) index is a statistical indicator that revealing the extent to which underlying factors could contribute to the variance in the variables. Elevated values (approaching 1.0) typically suggest the potential utility of conducting a factor analysis with the dataset.