https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6611-1027
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Abstract
To deal with the dynamic nature of global and socioeconomic conditions, it is critical to rethink the interplay between the efficiency of the higher education system and the employability outcomes of graduates. The purpose of this study was to investigate trends in undergraduate enrolment, graduation, and employment in Ethiopia. It looked at data from the past 15 years of enrolment and graduation and unemployment trends. For enrolment, we used the ARIMA (0, 1, and 0), Holt–Winter, and Simple models. Results showed that enrolment increased dramatically, whereas graduation went the other way, and this pattern is expected to continue. It is expected that higher education enrolment and graduation will continue to rise over the next ten years, while labor market demand will fall. Rethinking competence-based and job-driven education policy formulation, strengthening graduation-labor market alignment, and sustaining development qualification systems were all strongly recommended as ways to improve these trends.
Acknowledgments
The research was funded by Dilla University under the broad heading "Education and Development in Ethiopia: Existing Realities, Pressing Concerns, and Its Implications to Policy Reform," which is acknowledged by the authors. Regarding this, we sincerely appreciate the support and encouragement provided by the Office of Research and Dissemination (RDO) and the Office of Vice President for Research and Technology Transfer (RTTVP) for the research activities. Finally, we would like to acknowledge that a preprint of the first version of this article has previously been presented on https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202206.0093/v1
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Data availability statement
The dataset of this article is available with the corresponding author and it will be presented whenever requested.
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Notes on contributors
Berhanu Mekonnen Yimer
Dr. Berhanu Mekonnen Yimer, who teaches in the Institute of Education and Behavioural Science, Department of Curriculum and Instructional Supervision, at Dilla University in Ethiopia, and who is a faculty member in the Institute of Education and Behavioural Sciences (IEBS), is an educator whose focus is primarily in curricular and instructional issues.
Adane Hailu Herut
Adane Hailu Herut, an upcoming scholar of Education in Dilla University, has been hired as a consultant for the GEQIP-II project of Ethiopia’s Ministry of Education. Adane Hailu Herut, after he earned an MA degree in Educational Research & Development, is now pursuing a PhD in curriculum studies at the University of South Africa (UNISA). By contrast, Dr. Mesfin Molla Demissie is an associate professor and Dr. Misganu Legesse Bareke (Assistant Professor) in the department of educational planning and management at Dilla University has extensive researches in education management, leadership, and policy. Currently, Dr. Mesfin Molla Demissie (Asso. Prof) is the dean of IEBS.
Mesfin Molla Demissie
Adane Hailu Herut, an upcoming scholar of Education in Dilla University, has been hired as a consultant for the GEQIP-II project of Ethiopia’s Ministry of Education. Adane Hailu Herut, after he earned an MA degree in Educational Research & Development, is now pursuing a PhD in curriculum studies at the University of South Africa (UNISA). By contrast, Dr. Mesfin Molla Demissie is an associate professor and Dr. Misganu Legesse Bareke (Assistant Professor) in the department of educational planning and management at Dilla University has extensive researches in education management, leadership, and policy. Currently, Dr. Mesfin Molla Demissie (Asso. Prof) is the dean of IEBS.
Misganu Legesse Bareke
Dr. Misganu Lgesse Bareke holds the Directorate for Research, Publication, Ethics, and Dissemination (REPDO). Besides, Birhanu Haile Agezew, a lecturer in Dilla University’s Department of Educational Planning and Management, holds both his BA and MA in Educational Leadership and Management from the institution. In educational planning and management Birhanu Haile Agezew has conducted numerous research projects. He is currently studying for a PhD at the University of Debrecen in Hungary.
Birhanu Haile Agezew
Dr. Misganu Lgesse Bareke holds the Directorate for Research, Publication, Ethics, and Dissemination (REPDO). Besides, Birhanu Haile Agezew, a lecturer in Dilla University’s Department of Educational Planning and Management, holds both his BA and MA in Educational Leadership and Management from the institution. In educational planning and management Birhanu Haile Agezew has conducted numerous research projects. He is currently studying for a PhD at the University of Debrecen in Hungary.
Negash Haile Dedho
Negash Haile Dedho is a PhD Fellow at Maastricht University, and has an MSc in Applied Economics from Addis Ababa University. Negash Haile Dedho, a background as a lecturer and researcher in the Department of Economics at Dilla University his interests are innovation, international business, trade, globalization, knowledge spillovers, institutional changes, development, applied econometrics and impact evaluation.
Mulugeta Fufa Lebeta
Mulugeta Fufa Lebeta, who got his master’s degree in Educational Research and Development from Addis Ababa University, is a researcher and teacher at Dilla University’s Center for Education Studies and Research. In addition to his work as a high school educator Lebeta takes part in various university-sponsored research projects.