An e-Delphi study generates expert consensus on the trends in future continuing medical education engagement by resident, practicing, and expert surgeons

Abstract

Background: The Delphi method is a demonstrated way to gather structured expert opinions to forecast, plan, and prioritize around a given topic. It builds consensus through iterative rounds.

Aims: The goal of this study was to build consensus-based predictions for the year 2022 about: future trends in surgeon continuing medical education (CME); the role of technology in learning for surgeons of different experience levels (trainee/resident, practicing, expert); and CME funding models.

Methods: A three round e-Delphi method was employed for this study. Panelist identities were anonymized, and controlled feedback and consensus rules were employed. Fifteen international expert panelists’ input was collected via electronically distributed, open-ended questionnaire (Round 1) and 5-point Likert scale ranking surveys (Rounds 2 and 3), in a series of nine questions (Round 1) and 26 and 25 summary statements (Rounds 2 and 3, respectively). Summary statements were collated via key words and ideas collected from panelist’s input. Mean, median, standard deviation, and 95% confidence intervals were calculated.

Results: Response rate was 100% for each round. Consensus in Round 2 was 61% and 88% in Round 3. Seven key finding statements with supporting background information was the result.

Discussion: Reliable, affordable internet access was identified as a likely barrier to education for certain regions, even in 5 years’ time. The use of similar educational resources were identified for all levels of surgeon, what varied was the reliance on a particular resource by each level of surgeon.

Conclusion: Institutes of employment were predicted to have ended CME funding for expert surgeons by 2022. Industry sponsored CME was predicted to have a continued role for trainee/residents and practicing surgeons.

Keywords:

• Surgeon experience
• continuing medical education (CME)
• e-Delphi study
• technology
• learning
• predictions
• access information

Disclosure statement

Scientific writing support was received from WORD + VISION AG, Switzerland. The first author discloses employment by the organization (AO Foundation) funding and conducting this study.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Urs Rüetschi

Urs Rüetschi is Director of the AO Education Institute, steers the research, planning, development, and delivery of targeted continuing medical education resources and activities for trauma, spine, orthopedic, craniomaxillofacial, and veterinary surgeons.

Carlos Mario Olarte Salazar

Carlos Mario Olarte Salazar, MD, PhD, is Chief Orthopedic Surgeon at the Hospital Infantil de San Jose, Bogota, Columbia and represents AO Latin America as a member of the Global AOTrauma Education Commission.