Developing strategic foresight for drug policy: trends, scenarios, and implications

Abstract

Background

This study utilized foresight analysis to project drug policy trends and challenges in Finland up to 2030. It aimed to develop scenarios and strategies for addressing critical issues and to explore alternative policy options.

Methods

A comprehensive methodology was employed, including scope analysis, horizon scanning, trend analysis, and scenario building along with the expert panels. This approach facilitated the identification and categorization of trends into mega-trends, emerging trends, and weak signals, ensuring a robust and inclusive analysis.

Results

Key findings include mega-trends, such as changing drug policies and rising economic burdens. Emerging trends highlight the increase in synthetic, polydrug, and prescription drug use, vulnerability in certain subgroups, and growing drug-related mortality. Weak signals point to the advent of online drug marketplaces and new treatment methods. Past foresight studies agree on market growth and policy inertia but diverge on resource allocation and older generation targeting.

Conclusion

Developed scenarios and strategies address issues like increasing drug prevalence, service gaps, and market diversification, advocating for integrated approaches in demand reduction, governance, law enforcement, environmental protection, and harm reduction services. This research highlights the significance of participatory foresight methods in shaping Finnish drug policy, offering valuable insights for future trajectories and affirming the importance of foresight in this field.

Keywords:

• Foresight
• drug policy
• horizon scanning
• trend analysis
• expert panel
• scenario building
• illicit drugs
• Finland

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 National library: https://www.kansalliskirjasto.fi/fi.

2 Veikkaus, a gaming company owned by the Finnish State, monitors and regulates responsible gambling. A change in Veikkaus’s policy will affect the financing of NGOs. The Finnish government is reforming the financing model of STEA grants, which are awarded by the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health. Starting in 2024, the subsidies previously funded by gambling profits will be transferred to the state’s general budget.

Additional information

Funding

The author(s) reported there is no funding associated with the work featured in this article.