Multiple Systems Estimation for Sparse Capture Data: Inferential Challenges When There Are Nonoverlapping Lists

References

• Akaike, H. (1974), “A New Look at the Statistical Model Identification,” IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control , 19, 716–723. DOI: 10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baillargeon, S. , and Rivest, L.-P. (2007), “Rcapture: Loglinear Models for Capture-Recapture in R,” Journal of Statistical Software , 19, 1–31. DOI: 10.18637/jss.v019.i05.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bales, K. , Hesketh, O. , and Silverman, B. W. (2015), “Modern Slavery in the UK: How Many Victims?,” Significance , 12, 16–21. DOI: 10.1111/j.1740-9713.2015.00824.x.
   Google Scholar
• Bales, K. , Murphy, L. , and Silverman, B. W. (2019), “How Many Trafficked People Are There in Greater New Orleans? Lessons in Measurement,” Journal of Human Trafficking , DOI: 10.1080/23322705.2019.1634936.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Bird, S. M. , and King, R. (2018), “Multiple Systems Estimation (or Capture-Recapture Estimation) to Inform Public Policy,” Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application , 5, 95–118. DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-031017-100641.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chan, L. , Silverman, B. W. , and Vincent, K. (2019), “SparseMSE: Multiple Systems Estimation for Sparse Capture Data,” R Package Version 2.0.1.
   Google Scholar
• Cormack, R. M. (1989), “Log-Linear Models for Capture–Recapture,” Biometrics , 45, 395–413. DOI: 10.2307/2531485.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cormack, R. M. (1992), “Interval Estimation for Mark-Recapture Studies of Closed Populations,” Biometrics , 48, 567–576.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cruyff, M. , van Dijk, J. , and van der Heijden, P. G. M. (2017), “The Challenge of Counting Victims of Human Trafficking: Not on the Record: A Multiple Systems Estimation of the Numbers of Human Trafficking Victims in the Netherlands in 2010–2015 by Year, Age, Gender, and Type of Exploitation,” CHANCE , 30, 41–49. DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2017.1383113.
   Google Scholar
• DiCiccio, T. J. , and Efron, B. (1996), “Bootstrap Confidence Intervals,” Statistical Science , 11, 189–228. DOI: 10.1214/ss/1032280214.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Far, S. S. , Papathomas, M. , and King, R. (2019), “Parameter Redundancy and the Existence of Maximum Likelihood Estimates in Log-Linear Models,” Statistica Sinica , DOI: 10.5705/ss.202018.0100.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Farrell, A. , Dank, M. , Kfafian, M. , Lockwood, S. , Pfeffer, R. , Hughes, A. , and Vincent, K. (2019), “Capturing Human Trafficking Victimization Through Crime Reporting,” Technical Report 2015-VF-GX-0105, National Institute of Justice. Final Summary Report, available at https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/252520.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Fienberg, S. E. , and Rinaldo, A. (2012a), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Log-Linear Models,” The Annals of Statistics , 40, 996–1023. DOI: 10.1214/12-AOS986.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fienberg, S. E. , and Rinaldo, A. (2012b), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Log-Linear Models: Supplementary Material,” Technical Report, Carnegie Mellon University.
   Google Scholar
• Home Office (2014), Modern Slavery Strategy , London, UK: HM Government, available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/modern-slavery-strategy.
   Google Scholar
• International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting (1995), “Capture-Recapture and Multiple-Record Systems Estimation II: History and Theoretical Development,” American Journal of Epidemiology , 142, 1047–1058.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• King, R. , Bird, S. M. , Overstall, A. M. , Hay, G. , and Hutchinson, S. J. (2013), “Injecting Drug Users in Scotland, 2006: Number, Demography, and Opiate-Related Death-Rates,” Addiction Research and Theory , 21, 235–246. DOI: 10.3109/16066359.2012.706344.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Petersen, C. (1896), “The Yearly Immigration of Young Plaice Into the Limfjord From the German Sea,” Report of the Danish Biological Station , 6, 5–84.
   Google Scholar
• R Core Team (2016), R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing , Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
   Google Scholar
• Rivest, L.-P. , and Baillargeon, S. (2019), “Rcapture: Loglinear Models for Capture-Recapture Experiments,” R Package Version 1.4–3.
   Google Scholar
• Rivest, L.-P. , and Daigle, G. (2004), “Loglinear Models for the Robust Design in Mark-Recapture Experiments,” Biometrics , 60, 100–107. DOI: 10.1111/j.0006-341X.2004.00157.x.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sandland, R. L. , and Cormack, R. M. (1984), “Statistical Inference for Poisson and Multinomial Models for Capture–Recapture Experiments,” Biometrika , 71, 27–33. DOI: 10.2307/2336393.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schwarz, C. J. , and Seber, G. A. F. (1999), “Estimating Animal Abundance: Review III,” Statistical Science , 14, 427–456. DOI: 10.1214/ss/1009212521.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Silverman, B. W. (2020), “Multiple-Systems Analysis for the Quantification of Modern Slavery: Classical and Bayesian Approaches” (with discussion), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 183.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• van Dijk, J. J. , Cruyff, M. , van der Heijden, P. G. M. , and Kragten-Heerdink, S. L. J. (2017), Monitoring Target 16.2 of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals; A Multiple Systems Estimation of the Numbers of Presumed Human Trafficking Victims in the Netherlands in 2010–2015 by Year, Age, Gender, Form of Exploitation and Nationality , Vienna, Austria: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.
   Google Scholar
• Wilks, S. S. (1938), “The Large-Sample Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio for Testing Composite Hypotheses,” The Annals of Mathematical Statistics , 9, 60–62. DOI: 10.1214/aoms/1177732360.
   Google Scholar
• Williams, B. K. , Nichols, J. D. , and Conroy, M. (2002), The Analysis and Management of Animal Populations , San Diego, CA: Academic Press.
   Google Scholar