Similar Strategies, Dissimilar Outcomes: an Appraisal of the Efficacy of Turkey's Coercive Diplomacy with Syria and in Northern Iraq

Abstract

Several countries have used coercive diplomacy to dissuade sponsor-states from supporting non-state armed groups. This study argues that when a sponsor-state and a non-state armed group's common identity creates common aspirations and motives, coercive diplomacy towards the sponsor-state is unlikely to succeed in the long-term. To assess its efficacy, this research examines Turkey's strategy towards Syria in 1998 and in northern Iraq from 2007 onwards. Under the abovementioned conditions, it concludes that there has been no conclusive evidence for Turkey's assumption that its approach would succeed; therefore, it should utilise alternative strategies to coercive diplomacy.

Key Words:

• Coercive diplomacy
• Sponsor-states
• Non-state armed groups
• Turkey

Acknowledgement

I would like to thank Bill Park for his valuable contributions at every stage of this article.

Notes

¹International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2007 (London: Routledge for IISS 2007), 422.

²Rob de Wijk, ‘The Limits of Military Power’, Washington Quarterly 25/1 (Winter 2002), 76.

³Robert Trager and Dessislava Zagorcheva, ‘Deterring Terrorism, It Can Be Done’, International Security 30/3 (Winter 2005–06), 92.

⁴Alexander George, ‘The Need for Influence Theory and Actor-Specific Behavioural Models of Adversaries’, Comparative Strategy 22/5 (Dec. 2003), 480.

⁵Henry Prunckun Jr and Philip Mohr, ‘Military Deterrence of International Terrorism: An Evaluation of Operation El Dorado Canyon’, Studies in Conflict Terrorism 20/3 (1997), 268.

⁶Daniel Byman, ‘Passive Sponsors of Terrorism’, Survival, 47/4 (Winter 2005), 117–18; Daniel Byman, Deadly Connections, States that Sponsor Terrorism (New York: Cambridge UP 2005), 10.

⁷Prunckun Jr and Mohr, ‘Military Deterrence of International Terrorism: An Evaluation of Operation El Dorado Canyon’, 268.

⁸Byman, Deadly Connections, States that Sponsor Terrorism, 37.

⁹Ibid., 26–52.

¹⁰Stephen Collins, ‘Dissuading State Support of Terrorism: Strikes of Sanctions? An Analysis of Dissuasion Measures Employed Against Libya’, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 27/1 (Jan. 2004), 3.

¹¹Trager and Zagorcheva, ‘Deterring Terrorism, It Can Be Done’, 88, 108.

¹²Alexander George and William Simons, ‘Findings and Conclusions’, in Alexander George and William Simons (eds), The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy (Oxford: Westview Press 1994), 287.

¹³Robert Art, ‘Introduction’, in Robert Art and Patrick Cronin (eds), The United States and Coercive Diplomacy (Washington, DC: USIP 2003), 6.

¹⁴Alexander George, ‘Foreword’, in Art and Cronin, The United States and Coercive Diplomacy, vii.

¹⁵Alexander George, ‘The Development of Doctrine and Strategy’, in Alexander George, David Hall and William Simons (eds), The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, Laos, Cuba and Vietnam (Boston: Little, Brown 1971), 18.

¹⁶James Fearon, ‘Signaling Foreign Policy Interests, Tying Hands versus Sinking Costs’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 41/1 (1997), 69.

¹⁷Robert Art, ‘Coercive Diplomacy’, in Robert Art and Robert Jervis (eds), International Politics, Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues (New York: Pearson Longman 2005), 163.

¹⁸Ibid., 165.

¹⁹Peter Viggo Jakobsen, Western Use of Coercive Diplomacy after the Cold War: A Challenge for Theory and Practice (Basingstoke: Macmillan Press 1998) 14.

²⁰George, ‘Foreword’, vii.

²¹Alexander George, ‘Theory and Practice’, in George and Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, 16.

²²Ibid., 18–19.

²³George and Simons, ‘Findings and Conclusions’, 270–87; Alexander George, Forceful Persuasion, Coercive Diplomacy as An Alternative to War (Washington DC: USIP 1991), 69–81.

²⁴Ibid.

²⁵Jakobsen, ‘The Strategy of Coercive Diplomacy: Refining Existing Theory to Post-Cold War Realities’, 68.

²⁶Ibid.

²⁷George and Simons, ‘Findings and Conclusions’, 287; Jakobsen, Western Use of Coercive Diplomacy After the Cold War, 1–49; Peter Viggo Jakobsen, ‘The Strategy of Coercive Diplomacy: Refining Existing Theory to Post-Cold War Realities’, in Lawrence Freedman (ed.), Strategic Coercion, Concepts and Cases (Oxford: OUP 1998), 61–85.

²⁸Robert Lowe, ‘The Syrian Kurds: A People Discovered’, Chatham House Briefing Paper (Jan. 2006) 2.

²⁹Fikret Bila, Hangi PKK? (Ankara: Ümit Yayıncılık 2004) 29.

³⁰Michael Gunter, ‘The Kurdish Problem in Turkey’, Middle East Journal 42/3 (Summer 1988), 401.

³¹Ersel Aydınlı and Ümit Özdağ, ‘Winning a Low Intensity Conflict: Drawing Lessons from the Turkish Case’, Review of International Affairs 2 (2003), 105.

³²Gün Kut, ‘Burning Waters: The Hydropolitics of the Euphrates and Tigris’, New Perspectives on Turkey 9/3 (Fall 1993), 8–9.

³³Süha Bölükbaşı, ‘Ankara, Damascus, Baghdad and the Regionalization of Turkey's Kurdish Secessionism’, Journal of South and Middle Eastern Studies 14/4 (Summer 1991), 25.

³⁴İsmet İmset, The PKK: A Report on Separatist Violence in Turkey (1973–1992) (Ankara: Turkish Daily News Publications 1992), 176.

³⁵Author's interview with former Interior Minister İsmet Sezgin, 20 Feb. 2006.

³⁶Ibid.; the interviewee spoke on condition of anonymity.

³⁷Author's interview with former Deputy Undersecretary Ambassador Gündüz Aktan, 4 Jan. 2006; Murat Yetkin, Kürt Kapanı, Şam'dan İmralı'ya Öcalan (İstanbul: Remzi Kitabevi 2004), 38–40.

³⁸Author's interview with Aktan.

³⁹Ibid.

⁴⁰Nicole Pope, ‘War on the Underworld?’, Middle East International (MEI), 18 Sept. 1998, 12; Nicole Pope, ‘Outlawing Dissent’, MEI, 2 Oct. 1998, 12.

⁴¹‘US-Turkish convergence on Iraq hinges on Kurdish refugee question’, Turkish Daily News (TDN), 7 Feb. 1998; ‘Washington pressures Ankara on Iraqi crisis’, TDN, 5 Feb. 1998; ‘Vice Admiral in Ankara’, Anadolu Agency, 5 Feb. 1998.

⁴²Robert Olson, Turkey's Relations with Iran, Syria, Israel and Russia, 1991–2000 (California: Mazda Publishers 2001), 149–50.

⁴³‘Turkey eyes the Middle East’, Strategic Comments 10/6 (2004).

⁴⁴Andrew Rathmell, ‘The Encirclement of Syria’, MEI, 10 May 1996, 19; Donald Neff, ‘Money – the Great Lubricant’, MEI, 24 April 1998, 8.

⁴⁵Author's interview with former Prime Minister Mesut Yılmaz, 22 Feb. 2006.

⁴⁶Interview with Syrian journalist Husni Mahalli, 13 Jan. 2006; Eyal Zisser, Asad's Legacy, Syria in Transition (London: Hurst 2001), 118, 153–4; Eyal Zisser, ‘Clues to the Syrian Puzzle’, Washington Quarterly 23/2 (2000), 82.

⁴⁷Zisser, ‘Clues to the Syrian Puzzle’, 85, 88; Volker Perthes, Syria under Bashar Al-Asad: Modernisation and the Limits of Change, Adelphi Paper 366 (New York: OUP 2004), 38–9.

⁴⁸Hisham Melhem, ‘Syria between Two Transitions’, Middle East Report, 203 (Spring 1997), 3; Anoushiravan Ehteshami and Raymond Hinnesbusch, Syria and Iran: Middle Powers in a Penetrated Regional System (Routledge: London 1997) 112–3; Shireen Hunter, ‘Iran and Syria: From Hostility to Limited Alliance’, in Hooshang Amirahmadi and Nader Entessar (eds), Iran and the Arab World (London: Macmillan 1993), 198–213.

⁴⁹‘Adnan Omran visited Korkmaz Haktanır’, TDN, 31 June 1998.

⁵⁰Oktay Ekşi, ‘Bir bela ki düşman başına … ’, Hürriyet, 3 Oct. 1998.

⁵¹Emin Çölaşan, ‘İşte böyle bir Türkiye!’, Hürriyet, 4 July 1998.

⁵²Interview with former Commander of Land Forces General Atilla Ateş, 24 Feb. 2006; ‘Suriye'ye Uyarı’, Milliyet, 17 Sept. 1998.

⁵³ Turkish National Assembly Minutes Journal, 62, 1 Oct. 1998; ‘Sabrımız taşıyor’, Milliyet, 2 Oct. 1998.

⁵⁴Stephen Kinzer, ‘Turkey's ties to Syria to sink to war in all but the name’, New York Times, 4 Oct. 1998; Ertuğrul Özkök, ‘Asker emir bekliyor’, Hürriyet, 3 Oct. 1998.

⁵⁵Interviewees speak on condition of anonymity; ‘Suriye sınırına yığınak’, Hürriyet, 1 Oct. 1998; Ertuğrul Özkök, ‘Asker emir bekliyor’, Hürriyet, 3 Oct. 1998.

⁵⁶‘Hüsnü Mübarek arabulucu’, Radikal, 4 Oct. 1998; ‘İsrail ile ortak kara tatbikatı’, Hürriyet, 6 Jan. 1998.

⁵⁷ Turkish National Assembly Minutes Journal, 63, 7 Oct. 1998; ‘Savaş yetkisi isteyebiliriz’, Sabah, 8 Oct. 1998; ‘Meclis tek vücut’, Zaman, 8 Oct. 1998; ‘Egypt's diplomatic move’, TDN, 8 Oct. 1998.

⁵⁸Interview with Turkey's former permanent representative to NATO in Brussels Ambassador Onur Öymen, 26 March 2007; ‘Turkish–Syrian Tension conveys her resolution about the Syrian issue to Annan, the UN Secretary General’, Anadolu Agency, 14 Oct. 1998; Minutes of UN General Assembly, A/C.1/53/PV.5, <http://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/PRO/N98/860/71/pdf/N9886071.pdf?OpenElement>; ‘Secretary-General meets with Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria and Arab League to discuss efforts to defuse tension between Turkey and Syria’, UN Press Release, SG/SM/6742, 13 Oct. 1998, <www.un.org/News/Press/docs/1998/19981013.sgsm6742. html>.

⁵⁹Interview with Öymen.

⁶⁰Interviews with former Ambassador of the US to Turkey Mark Parris, 6 Oct. 2006, and the former US Ambassador to Turkey between 1994 and 1997 and Deputy Secretary of State at the time of the crisis, Marc Grossman, 20 Oct. 2006; Nihat Ali Özcan, PKK Tarihi, İdeolojisi ve Yöntemi (Ankara: ASAM 1999), 319.

⁶¹Interview with Parris.

⁶²Ibid.; David Butter, ‘Syria turns over a new leaf’, Middle East Economic Digest, 5 Sept. 1997, 5.

⁶³Interviews with Parris and Grossman; Harun Kazaz, ‘US suggests caution on the Turkey-Syria front’, TDN, 4 Oct. 1998.

⁶⁴Ibid; the interviewee spoke on condition of anonymity.

⁶⁵‘Suriye'den geri adım’, Radikal, 3 Oct. 1998.

⁶⁶Interview with Mahalli; Zisser, Asad's Legacy, Syria in Transition, 118, 153–4; Zisser, ‘Clues to the Syrian Puzzle’, 82–8; Perthes, Syria under Bashar Al-Asad: Modernisation and the Limits of Change, 38–9.

⁶⁷Kemal Kirişci and Gareth Winrow, Kürt Sorunu, Kökeni ve Gelişimi (İstanbul: Tarih Vakfı Yurt Yayınları 2002), 48–9, 51.

⁶⁸‘Kurdish Militancy in Turkey’, Strategic Comments, 11/5 (July 2005).

⁶⁹Michael Gunter, ‘The Foreign Policy of the Iraqi Kurds’, Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies 20/3 (Spring 1997), 9; Michael Gunter, ‘The Iraqi National Congress (INC) and the Future of the Iraqi Opposition’, Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, 19/3 (Spring 1996), 3.

⁷⁰Bill Park, Turkey's Policy towards Northern Iraq: Problems and Prospects, Adelphi Paper 374 (London: IISS 2005); Asa Lundgren, The Unwelcome Neighbour: Turkey's Kurdish Policy (London: I.B. Tauris 2007); Philip Robins, Suits and Uniforms: Turkish Foreign Policy since the Cold War (London: Hurst 2003), 312–42.

⁷¹Ümit Özdağ, Türk Ordusunun PKK Operasyonları, 1984–2007 (İstanbul: Pegasus 2007) 145, 159–62.

⁷²Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, ‘Baş destekçi Talabani ve Barzani’, Sabah, 17 Feb. 2007.

⁷³‘PKK ile ilişkileri rapora girdi’, Samanyolu Haber, 1 March 2007; ‘Barzani'ye kanıt tokatı’, Aydın Ses, 1 March 2007.

⁷⁴‘Genel Kurmay'ın Irak sıkıntısı’, Milliyet, 25 June 2007.

⁷⁵‘PKK uses northern Iraq as arsenal, says official report’, Today's Zaman, 17 Sept. 2007.

⁷⁶‘Kirkuk falls to Kurds, Turkey mobilised’, Turks.US, Daily World EU News, 10 April 2003, <www.turks.us/article.php?story=20030410122300148>.

⁷⁷‘Barzani'den Kürt tehdidi’, NTV, 12 April 2007, <www.NTVMSNB.com/news/404921.asp>.

⁷⁸Mustafa Kibaroğlu, ‘The CHP's role in pushing Turkey toward a cross-border operation’, Terrorism Focus 4(24), 24 July 2007, <www.jamestown.org>.

⁷⁹‘Top general calls for a cross-border operation to northern Iraq’, TDN, 13 April 2007.

⁸⁰Ibid.

⁸¹‘Buffer zone in northern Iraq’, TDN, 15 June 2007.

⁸²For the text see <www.mfa.gov.tr>.

⁸³‘Turkey requests authority to attack’, Washington Post, 16 Oct. 2007.

⁸⁴‘US finally admits Kurdish influence on PKK’, TDN, 19 Oct. 2007.

⁸⁵‘Babacan'dan Barzani'ye sert eleştiriler: PKK'ya karşı bir adım atılmadı’, Milliyet, 27 Nov. 2007.

⁸⁶Lale Sarıibrahimoğlu, ‘US works with Turkey to counter PKK in Iraq’, Jane's Defence Weekly, 14 Nov. 2007; Former Turkish Ambassador Şükrü Elekdağ's interview in CNNTurk programme, 5 Nov. 2008.

⁸⁷Emrullah Uslu, ‘Can Turkey's Anti-Terrorism Cooperation with Iran Lead to a Strategic Partnership?’,Terrorism Focus, 24 June 2008, <www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache= 1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=5012>.

⁸⁸‘Syrian president expresses support for incursion into Northern Iraq’, Today's Zaman, 18 Oct. 2007; Sami Moubayed, ‘Iran and Turkey fire salvo over Iraq’, Asian Times Online, 13 May 2006, <www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HE13Ak03>.

⁸⁹‘Meeting hits nail on the head’, TDN, 5 Nov. 2005.

⁹⁰‘US helps Turkey hit rebel Kurds in Iraq’, Washington Post, 18 Dec. 2007.

⁹¹Gareth Jenkins, ‘A military analysis of Turkey's incursion into northern Iraq’, Terrorism Monitor 6/5 (7 March 2008), <www.jamestown.org>.

⁹²‘Türkiye Cumhurbaşkanı Gül: “PKK aradan çıkarılırsa kuzeyi de dahil Irak'a yardımımız 10 katına çıkar”', Ajans a Peyamner, 8 Jan. 2008.

⁹³Yahya Ahmed, ‘Iraqi Kurds back PKK despite being displaced by recent fighting’, Institute for War & Peace Reporting, 22 April 2008; ‘Savaş uçakları FKB hava sahasını ihlal ederek bazı köyleri bombardıman etti’, Ajans a Peyamner, 11 May 2008.

⁹⁴‘Iraq wants terrorists out’, TDN, 19 Oct. 2007; ‘Maliki, under Turkish pressure, vows to curb Kurdish rebels’, Washington Post, 24 Oct. 2007.

⁹⁵‘Barzani hopes Talabani's visit serves for good relations’, Today's Zaman, 11 March 2008.

⁹⁶İrfan Bozan, ‘Northern Iraq: from deadlock to dialogue’, Foreign Policy Bulletin 6 (İstanbul: TESEV 2007) 5–7.

⁹⁷Masoud Barzani's interview with CNN correspondent Nick Robertson, 1 June 2008, <http://video.aol.com/video-detail/massud-barzanis-interview-with-cnn-over-pkk/ 186113174>.

⁹⁸‘Talabani'nin ‘kedi bile vermem’ açıklaması’, Milliyet, 3 March 2008. Later Talabani announced that he said ‘an Iraqi cat’ not ‘a Kurdish cat’.

⁹⁹Gareth Jenkins, ‘Talabani Condemns PKK, Calls on Turkey to Engage with KRG’, Eurasia Daily Monitor 5/45 (10 March 2008), <www.jamestown.org/publications_ details.php?volume_id=427&issue_id=4415&article_id=2372871>.

¹⁰⁰Erdal Şafak, ‘Kuzey Irak Politikaları’, Sabah, 12 Oct. 2008.

¹⁰¹International Crisis Group, ‘Turkey and Iraqi Kurds: Conflict and Cooperation?’, Middle East Report 81, 13 Nov. 2008, 9.

¹⁰²‘Acıların en büyüğü’, Milliyet, 5 Oct. 2008; ‘Hakkari'de çatışma: 5 şehit’, Milliyet, 16 Oct. 2008; ‘Diyarbakır'da polis okulu servis aracına saldırı’, Milliyet, 8 Oct. 2008; ‘PKK'den Türk ordusuna ağır darbe’, Ajans a Peyamner, 16 Oct. 2008.

¹⁰³‘Kurdish government closes pro-PKK party’, Reuters, 3 Nov. 2007, <www.reuters. com/article/topNews/idUSMAR33841920071103>; ‘Elections in Iraq’, Wikipedia, <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Iraq>.

¹⁰⁴Discussion programme ‘Why?’ on NTV, 14 Oct. 2008; ‘Talabani Öcalan'dan nefret ediyor’, Radikal, 7 Aug. 2006.

¹⁰⁵‘Barzani'den sıcak mesajlar’, Samanyolu Haber, 12 Nov. 2008, <www.samanyo luhaber.com/haber-125173.html>; ‘Başbakan Barzani: “Irak'tan çekilmenin sonucu kötü olur’”, Ajans a Peyamner, 26 May 2008; ‘Kürdistan Başkanı: “Kürdistan Bölgesi'nin kapısı ABD askerine her zaman açıktır’”, Ajans a Peyamner, 1 Nov. 2008.

¹⁰⁶‘Osman: FKB Yönetimi PKK'ye karşı hiçbir şekilde silah kullanmayacak … ’, Ajans a Peyamner, 28 Dec. 2008; ‘Talabani: “Kürtlerin talepleri karşılanırsa PKK silah bırakmaya hazırdır”’, Ajans a Peyamner, 22 Dec. 2008.

¹⁰⁷Associated Press, 29 March 2009; ‘Talabani PKK konusunda çark etti’, Radikal, 2 April 2009.

¹⁰⁸‘PKK dışilişkiler sorumlusu Deniz: “Türkiye'nin Kürtleri karşı karşıya getirme politikası iflasa uğramıştır”’, Ajans a Peymner, 21 July 2008.

¹⁰⁹‘Öcalan: Barzani PKK'yi yem görmemeli’, <www.rojaciwan.com/modules. php?name=News&file=article&sid=27524>.

¹¹⁰‘Türkiye Kürdistan Yönetimi ile diyaloğa geçiyor’, Ajans a Peyamner, 10 Oct. 2008.

¹¹¹Interview with Foreign Minister Ali Babacan on NTV, 21 Oct. 2008.

¹¹²‘Babacan: “PKK konusunda İran-Irak sınırında haberleşme yapılıyor’”, Ajans a Peyamner, 7 June 2008.

¹¹³‘PKK'ya bir darbe de Suriye'den’, Hürriyet, 5 Feb. 2009; ‘İran ve Suriye PKK etrafındaki çemberi daraltıyor’, Zaman, 26 Nov. 2008; “Turkey and Iran unite to attack Kurdish rebels’, New York Times, 6 June 2008; ‘Başbakan Barzani: “Türkiye ve İran'ın Kürdistan Bölgesi'ne yönelik bombardımanı durmalı”’, Ajans a Peyamner, 20 May 2008; ‘Babacan: “PKK konusunda İran-Irak sınırında haberleşme yapılıyor’”.

¹¹⁴‘Turkish “sport” for Baghdad’, Dar al Hayat, 26 March 2009.

¹¹⁵Gareth Stansfield, Robert Lowe et al., ‘The Kurdish Policy Imperative’, Chatham House Briefing Report (Dec. 2007), 7–8.

¹¹⁶Ferai Tınç, ‘Irak hükümet sözcüsü: Tehdit sürdükçe harekát kaçınılmaz’, Hürriyet, 17 Dec. 2007.

¹¹⁷‘Cumhurbaşkanı Gül Kuzey Irak'a “Kürdistan” dedi’, Radikal, 23 March 2009. He later denied using the word, Kurdistan. However, the journalists who accompanied him during his visit point out that he used that term. Saban Kardas, ‘Gül Denies Saying “Kurdistan” During Iraq Visit’, 30 March 2009, <www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Bswords%5D=8fd5893941d69d0be3f378576261ae3e& tx_ttnews%5Bany_of_the_words%5D=turkey%2C%20terrorism%2C%20islam& tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34775&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=f3a26e e440>; Cengiz Çandar ‘Kürdistan tartışması siyasi cesaret sorunudur’, Radikal, 27 March 2009.

¹¹⁸‘Özçelik: güneyde ve kuzeyde her grupla görüşeceğiz’, Ajans a Peyamner, 17 May 2008; ‘Babacan'dan PKK konusunda Kürdistan Bölgesi Yönetimi ile diyalog kapısının açıldığı açıklaması’, Ajans a Peyamner, 11 July 2008.

¹¹⁹Cengiz Çandar, ‘Kürt sorununa ili? kin önemli geli? meler olacak,’ Referans, 11 March 2009.