Civil emergency preparedness if deterrence fails

Abstract

This paper challenges the common assumption that if deterrence fails, then all preparations—military and civilian—will have failed, all‐out nuclear war will be inevitable, and damage limitation will be futile. Rather, it is argued, deterrence is likely to fail by degrees, not with a “big bang.” Thus, intrawar deterrence, escalation control, and early and acceptable war termination will be major objectives. It is suggested that civil emergency preparedness can make major contributions to these objectives—and to the deterrence of diplomatic coercion, before deterrence fails.