Are Student Protests in Arab States Caused by Economic and Political Grievances? Empirical Evidence from the 2006–07 Arab Barometer

Abstract

We investigate the nature of protests by students (age 18 and older) in Algeria, Jordan, Morocco, and Yemen by using subsamples of students from nationally representative and acclaimed public opinion data (the 2006–07 Arab Barometer). We find between 22.1% (Jordan) and 54.7% (Yemen) participated in either the signing of petitions, or marching in street protests, or both between the years 2003–07. To explain student protest participation, we draw from the political economy literature to test four grievance-based hypotheses that link protest to student perceptions on the performance of the economy, personal family socioeconomic status, political exclusion, and preference for democracy. Ordered probit regression analyses indicate that students protest for different reasons in the four countries. We find statistical evidence that student protests are associated with grievances about the economy (Algeria and Morocco) and lack of democracy (Algeria only). Joint hypothesis tests reveal that the four grievances jointly matter in Algeria, Morocco, and Yemen but not Jordan.

Acknowledgments

This article has been possible because of the support and encouragement of Stephen Heyneman. We are also very grateful to Daniel Berkowitz and Art Goldsmith for lengthy conversations and detailed comments on older drafts. For helpful discussions, we thank David Baker, Jishnu Das, Steven Finkel, Luke Condra, Sera Linardi, and seminar participants at the College of Education, Pennsylvania State University, and the University of Pittsburgh's Globalization Seminar, School of Education, and Ford Center for Human Security.

Notes

In particular, our study contributes to the limited microlevel research on political behavior in developing countries (Berman, Callen, Felter, & Shapiro, 2011; Jamal & Tessler, 2008). In a review of the literature, Knutsen (2007) only listed studies from India and Latin America. Most of the recent research is found in the sociological and political science literature but does not focus specifically on student involvement.

Figures are for 2008 unless otherwise noted. PPP Converted GDP Per Capita (Laspeyres), derived from growth rates of c, g, i, at 2005 constant prices. Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 7.0, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, May 2011. Site: data.worldbank.org.

Bicameralism is a feature of a mixed government that includes the practice of having two legislative or parliamentary chambers compromise bills.

In terms of population size, Jordan has the smallest population (6.1 million) followed by Yemen (22.2 million), Morocco (30.9 million), and Algeria (33.8 million). A distinguishing characteristic of the populations is the youth bulge: the median age ranges from 17.9 years (Yemen) to 26.5 years (Jordan).

Because the Arab Barometer subsample of students includes only those who are of age 18 and older, we focus on providing a background of the higher education systems.

Protest participation does not necessarily imply benevolent, selfless, or socially conscious behavior; rather, it may be that protest participants are mainly concerned with improvements in their own outcomes. It is not possible to decipher from the data or the anecdotal country evidence the true individual motives behind protest participation. In our study, it is unclear if respondents are mainly concerned with improving their own labor market and family status, or broader labor market and family status.

The data are publicly available from the official Arab Barometer website (http://www.arabbarometer.org). The quote was also obtained from this page (last accessed on October 15, 2012). Three countries from the 2006–07 Arab Barometer are excluded in this study: Lebanon, Kuwait, and the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT). Lebanon is excluded because it is already a democracy. Kuwait is unusually wealthy and has not taken efforts to remove its rulers. OPT was not trying to bring down an authority. International news organizations such as the BBC have also not included Lebanon, Kuwait, and OPT as countries experiencing protests (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12482293)

A number of different approaches to the analysis of social movements have developed out of these two perspectives. Some scholars examine the role of culture in social movements (Polletta, 2008; Rochon, 1998; Zhao, 2010), granting more agency to cultural contexts in movement emergence and maintenance. Social-psychological perspectives examine group behavior, emotional manipulation, and collective identity in movements (Hirsch, 1990; Jasper, 2011; Klandermans, 2005; Melucci, 1995; Snow & Oliver, 1995). Others study the role of structural determinants in movement mobilization and continuation; for example, organizations (Ganz, 2000; McAdam, 1983), networks (Diani, 2004; Snow, Zurcher, & Ekland-Olson, 1980), coalitions (Staggenborg, 1986; von Bülow, 2011), or repression (Alimi, 2009; Almeida, 2003).