Terrorism Outside the Proverbial Vacuum: Implications for the Moral Context

ABSTRACT

Prior research has found that terrorists are not susceptible to certain and severe countermeasures. One possibility is that, instead, deterrence is relative. Based on this premise and inspired by situational action theory’s conceptualization of the “moral context,” this research proposes that there are circumstances that influence both moral norms and their enforcement. We hypothesize that one set of circumstances is that of high profile terrorist attacks, which in turn should decrease the hazard of future incidents. We find mixed support for our hypotheses, but maintain that it has important implications for policy.

Notes

¹ For instance, certain efforts (e.g., metal detectors) have resulted in the substitution effects, while others have yielded backlash effects (e.g., military raids).

² Although the Unabomber was responsible for a number of fatalities and did hold beliefs consistent with radical environmentalists, his ideology falls much more into a larger anarchist framework.

³ For example, Carson (2014) found that legislation decreased attacks by one ideology, while at the same time increasing incidents from other groups.

⁴ Although we acknowledge the research examining the cyclical nature of terrorist attacks (Enders and Sandler 2005; Behlendorf et al. 2012), there appears to be no real consensus on how long such cycles last. Our selection of 6, 12, and 18 months falls within the range of prior estimates (anywhere from 2 weeks to 4 years) and are consistent with prior research utilizing series hazard modeling (LaFree et al. 2009).

⁵ Although the Department of Homeland Security was not created until 2002, the budget includes a measure that “consists of spending attributable to predecessor agencies in earlier years, but now attributable to the Department of Homeland Security.”

⁶ As established in previous investigations (Dugan et al. 2005), we measure success density at 3 incidents as to maintain the largest amount of observations and as it makes the most theoretical sense that recent success would be a greater influence on the hazard of future incidents.

⁷ Per Dugan (2011), we tested for interaction effects (the intervention and a monthly count of incidents.), which allow for a break in a flat trend. However, none of these interactions were significant.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Jennifer Varriale Carson

JENNIFER VARRIALE CARSON is the Coordinator for Undergraduate Research in the Honors College and an Associate Professor in the Department of Criminal Justice at the University of Central Missouri. Her work focuses on policy evaluation and has appeared in the Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Terrorism and Political Violence, and the Prison Journal.

Brad Bartholomew

BRAD BARTHOLOMEW is a faculty member of the Department of Crime, Justice & Criminology at American University. His research focuses on the identification of predictors and successful countermeasures for domestic terrorism and the criminal activities of extremist organizations.