Recognition of the remains of Tsar Nicholas II and his family: a case of premature identification?

Abstract

On 17 July 1998 remains identified as those of Tsar Nicholas II and his family were reburied in St. Petersburg. The interment followed the decision taken by the Russian Governmental Commission responsible for the study of the remains, which heavily relied on mitochondrial DNA analysis conducted on one or two bones from each of the nine skeletons found in the original gravesite near the city of Ekaterinburg in the Urals region. The investigation should be regarded as inconclusive because crucially important historical information was not taken into account either in formulating alternative scenarios or when calculating the corresponding odds and match probabilities. Among these factors were attempts to hide evidence and to develop false clues about the murders, and the fact that the grave which contained the remains was not intact and some skulls and other bones may have been added to the grave, possibly even those of relatives of the alleged persons. For these reasons, the conclusions drawn from analyses should only have applied to the specific bones that were analysed and not to the disinterred skeletons. Further, the mitochondrial DNA analyses only provide information on the maternal lineages of those allegedly in the grave, and not for specific persons. Other shortcomings also occurred in the DNA studies, in particular the application of US and UK, and not Russian, population data in the analysis.