Norwegian shipping: measuring foreign exchange risk

Abstract

The primary aim here is an attempt to measure the impact of foreign exchange movements on the operating results of the shipping industry. The issue arises from the imposition of a volatile foreign exchange market on a freight market structure which fixes revenues in US dollars. Despite attempts to shift costs into dollars, some other currency liabilities still remain, making exposure to exchange rate fluctuations inevitable. The contemporary experience of the Norwegian industry is used to analyse the cost structure in terms of currency denomination, the volatility in the real Kroner/US dollar exchange rate, and the sensitivity of the operating results to these fluctuations. This serves to highlight the commercial vulnerability of shipping companies. Exposure can be seen in a positive or negative light depending on the direction of movement in the exchange rate. Operating profits can rise and fall dramatically simply because of these exchange rate movements.

Notes

Information supplied by the Norwegian Shipowners' Association, November 1997

SSB: Offcial Statistics of Norway.

October 22 1997, Norwegian Stock Exchange information.