Transient results for a high demand CCRC model

Abstract

This paper examines the transient behavior of a stochastic model for high demand continuing care retirement community (CCRC) populations. The CCRC under consideration provides a number of independent living units each of which houses one resident at a time and a skilled nursing facility (SNF) for those who require care. A time-homogeneous Markov process is used to model the care requirements of the CCRC residents. Under the model, the “state” of the population is described by the number of permanent transfers and the number of temporary transfers to the SNF. The paper examines how one can obtain information about the distribution of the state of the CCRC population at a given future time.

Key words:

• Continuing care retirement communities
• renewal process
• time-homogeneous
• Markov process