Beyond the Gompertz law: exploring the late-life mortality deceleration phenomenon

Abstract

Using a new distribution capable of exhibiting all the possible modes of accelerating and decelerating mortality, we conduct a systematic investigation of late-life mortality in humans. We check the insensitivity of the distribution to age cutoffs in the data relative to the logistic mortality model and propose a method to forecast evolution in the characteristic deceleration ages of the distribution. A number of data sets have been explored, with a particular emphasis on those originating from Scandinavia. Although those from Australia, Canada, and the USA are compatible with Gompertzian mortality, those from the other countries examined are not. We find in particular that the onset of mortality deceleration is being progressively delayed in Western societies but that there is evidence of mortality plateauing at earlier ages.

Keywords:

• senescent mortality
• force of mortality
• momentous ages
• life-tables
• regression meta-analysis

Acknowledgements

The authors are very grateful to an anonymous reviewer who suggested several important improvements to the presentation and methods, including a better form of regression meta-analysis. This work is supported by The Actuarial Foundation (TAF). The fourth author (R.Z.) is grateful for the hospitality of Massey University.